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CoG + Ultra Trend System

  • #121
  • Feb 25, 2010 6:19am Feb 25, 2010 6:19am
Quoting rainingpips
Hey guys....the weekend is coming up, and I was wondering if someone(s) might mind doing a little back testing of this method....
It will be hard to backtest renko with offline charts
The Road appears under the steps of walking men...
  • #122
  • Feb 25, 2010 6:43am Feb 25, 2010 6:43am
Quoting Soondoock
It will be hard to backtest renko with offline charts
hard, but not impossible. Accurate approximations may be made with the already established offline chart, nothing repaints and all the blocks are of the same magnitude. We are already using the M1 price data, and since the tick data isn't available how much more accurate could a forward back-test really be? The Trix and DSS would be unavailable in thsi case unless you increase the maximum bars the indicator includes on the chart (not sure if there is an actual maximum, may depend on the indicator).

I have seen a flash video or a MT4 strategy-tested Renko setup however; so it can definitely be truly, legitimately back-tested. This may necessitate commercial specialty scripts that augment the historical data utilized in the back-test (found in the price server(s) area of the actual program?). I did a little research a day or so ago, and this was the only thing I found. Not sure how to go about integrating it yet.
  • #123
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:30am Feb 25, 2010 7:30am
Those daring enough to trade other currencies, you may do so, but use the following formula to determine whether doing so will be profitable...and then how to adjust the chart.

Firstly:

Pair's Spread (PS) * 2.5 = y

y = Magnitude to set renko block (RB) in RenkoLiveChart indicator


Then:

Daily Average (DA)
_______________ = z

y


If Z < 10 , don't trade this system with the pair; as there are other, lower spread pairs out there with higher daily averages (aggregate price volume) SUCH AS EURUSD . Theorectically, if you find the spread to be negligible in trading, since intra-day aggregate price volume far out shadows the relatively high spread, it is capitally efficient to trade this pair over of a smaller spread, but lower volume pair. Basically you compare z values for pairs you SHOULD BE trading (e.g. any pair with a z value over 10) and optimize capital downstream from the highest z value.
  • #124
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:44am Feb 25, 2010 7:44am
Also, if you decide to monkey with this system, don't forget to set a TRAILING STOP LOSS on top of your regular 20-30 pip stop loss. If people do this, they'll be complaining about only making 50-80% of what they should have made instead of barely making a profit or possibly loosing money over time (over days).

PA WILL pull back/retrace eventually. This is visualized by the HMA(10) deltas back to the SDL "trend line."

Generally, if the pullback doesn't trigger your trailed-stop loss, then it wasn't worth exiting, as price resumed in the direction of the SDL.

If price DOES either recede/ascend to actually hit your trailed-SL, it is either a sign to re-enter at a price more favorable relative to where the HMA(10) delta occured or an SDL change. You'll have to watch the chart's other indicators to get a grasp of which one it will be.

Once you get comfortable with the system, it will be grossly evident the benefit of exiting and re-entering on the HMA(10) deltas congruent with the SDL slope. It's basically a choice between a line of PA worth x OR several lines of PA worth an aggregate of 1.2-1.5x. You do the math.
  • #125
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:00am Feb 25, 2010 8:00am
Renko V3.2 is good, good update and yes has wicks, also improved
stability in fast moving market.

Good setup Rainingpips Great step.. checking it out today.

Brian

Quoting Soondoock
No I use free version, and yes wicks can be visible.
Here it is.
  • #126
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:06am Feb 25, 2010 8:06am
Generally speaking, if you set the stop-loss scheme i've mentioned, PA turns against you, and the SDL changes, you will either make profit (albiet a small profit depending on how quick it DID change), make a profit that is very close to break even or you will take a very small loss. An SDL(100) change will IN MOST CASES move your stop-loss via the trailing SL; becoming an inverse take profit. There might be other, very rare cases (from what I've seen so far), where the trailing SL will not move...but there has been only one so far.

You continue this until you eventually encounter an SDL worth over 100 pips (on average, and there are more of these instances than the chop detailed above surprisingly).
  • #127
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:08am Feb 25, 2010 8:08am
Well i've reached my cerebral download for the time being and am going to hit the hay for a while. If you are actively testing the system and find faults or areas that shine (and can possibly be improved) please comment!

I'm going to add an SDL(200) to the mix when I wake up. A little testing found that it serves as a good meter or worthwhile SDL(100) deltas. Remember, this stuff was built off weighted moving average indicators, pretty elementary stuff when FX technical analysis is concerned. These indicators simply introduce color to represent slope changes, albeit in slightly different ways.
  • #128
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:23am Feb 25, 2010 8:23am
Quoting rainingpips
Well i've reached my cerebral download for the time being and am going to hit the hay for a while....
Exit points are most difficult when trading renko, I've tried different approaches but can not find the best one. I think the best way to trade with fixed sl tp and R:R 1:3. Also trading renko is hard because one bar can be build for a second and the other for an hour. So you need to watch the market all the time.

Situation you can see now EURUSD. SDL changed the color for a few times already.
The Road appears under the steps of walking men...
  • #129
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:40pm Feb 25, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting Soondoock
Exit points are most difficult when trading renko, I've tried different approaches but can not find the best one. I think the best way to trade with fixed sl tp and R:R 1:3. Also trading renko is hard because one bar can be build for a second and the other for an hour. So you need to watch the market all the time.

Situation you can see now EURUSD. SDL changed the color for a few times already.
Have you tried using the trailing stop? You should be manually closing the false signals (e.g. when the SDL deltas are separated by only a few blocks, and the trend is obviously broken). The trailing stop is there when you can't be on the longer-term, profitable trends.

Really, your stop-loss or TP is the next SDL delta. We haven't mechanized this system yet, so physically being there in front of the chart is paramount. You need only to watch for SDL changes. You can set audible and email alerts for this if you can't be there.

I agree that the "time-independent" nature of Renko can be troubling, but that's the main reason we are using it. "Time" doesn't really matter in in PA. I mean, if PA is struggling to make ground over the span of several hours, it is normally representative of a trend change; and this trend change is exactly what Renko and the SDL(s) represent.
  • #130
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:04pm Feb 25, 2010 8:04pm
I may have posted a simpler version of this, but here is a slightly more complicated version of the stop-loss and trailing stop-loss method for this system:

Basically, a successful SDL delta will yield more than 40 gross pips. However, as I have already demonstrated, we are anticipating HMA deltas to the new SDL.

These contrarian HMA deltas are only significant when they trigger the trailing stop loss. The reason we would want to be automatically stopped out is two-fold.

 

  1. Provide a new lower/higher price to re-enter the main SDL trend, once the HMA delta corresponds with the SDL slope again. This is something we want because overall throughout the entirety of the SDL we'll make more aggregate pips.
  2. There is also the chance the HMA delta will pierce the SDL, creating a new SDL delta. This event of course dictates a new trend direction, and therefore a contrary trade. (e.g. your long gets stopped out by the trailing-sl, the SDL then changes, you enter a new short w/o losing any more profit than the trailing-sl captured and you're in a strong position for the new trend.)

Given, there will be instances where there is minor SDL chop, and you could lose pips, but overall with this system you'll be much more profitable if you follow the above two steps. PA inherently is always trending or changing into a new trend. The chop is indicative of a trend pause or an imminent delta --> so we are always anticipating the trend, (trend is your friend and all that good stuff) .

  • #131
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:26pm Feb 25, 2010 8:26pm
Today I'm trying something slightly new. I've changed the HMA value to "25", and will be trading all the deltas that look cogent with the other indicators. All of these trades will not be profitable, but the logic is that most will be (...and the other indicators will help eliminate those that are on average, unprofitable) as they are what lead into SDL deltas.
  • #132
  • Feb 26, 2010 7:55am Feb 26, 2010 7:55am
How is the new change working for you?

Brian

Quoting rainingpips
Today I'm trying something slightly new. I've changed the HMA value to "25", and will be trading all the deltas that look cogent with the other indicators. All of these trades will not be profitable, but the logic is that most will be (...and the other indicators will help eliminate those that are on average, unprofitable) as they are what lead into SDL deltas.
  • #133
  • Mar 5, 2010 3:10am Mar 5, 2010 3:10am
Hello everyone,
If you take a look at the naked renko chart E/U 5 pips box size with the only indicator SDL (100) on it, we can see that it is possible to trade very profitable using only one indicator. I wonder is there any EA which trade SLD only to use it for forward testing.
The Road appears under the steps of walking men...
  • #134
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:17am Aug 30, 2010 5:17am
Now i always wondered about the crossings of MAs. Im not saying it doesnt work or anything, im just curious as the theory of why it would work, what is the logic behind it?
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #135
  • Dec 1, 2010 3:46am Dec 1, 2010 3:46am
Cog is awesome during ranging market, be careful when the market is being trending always check the higher TF as the main trend good luck..
It's Designed and Balance
  • #136
  • Jan 21, 2011 3:30am Jan 21, 2011 3:30am
i am only working with COG and fibonacci. and it works great

here is my entrance ( to enter i wait 1 hour chart and look 30 min and 15 min also ) but 1 hour is the most important.

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/5451/2au3060.jpg


result

http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/5619/2ausonu.jpg

if i have waited more

http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/6...atlersonra.jpg

this is just one example i have tried this at least 20 times and it worked %100. i dont know when will i fail.
Everything is RISK just learn how to live with
  • #137
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:21am Jan 21, 2011 4:21am
another example

http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/5536/3eu3060.jpg

RESULT

http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/3695/3eusonu.jpg

WAIT MORE

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/7...atlersonra.jpg
Everything is RISK just learn how to live with
  • #138
  • Sep 27, 2011 2:52am Sep 27, 2011 2:52am
Quoting xrepla
i am only working with COG and fibonacci. and it works great

here is my entrance ( to enter i wait 1 hour chart and look 30 min and 15 min also ) but 1 hour is the most important.

this is just one example i have tried this at least 20 times and it worked %100. i dont know when will i fail.
xrepla, are you still using this strategy? You said cog with fibonacci, but there is sup/res on your charts, no fibs..or did I get it wrong? Could you please explain how exactly do you use cog for entries?

Anyone else still using this, especially the ultra trend indicator?
  • #139
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:10pm Oct 31, 2011 10:10pm
Hi rainingpips. I just joined FF today ever since i came across this thread. Interesting. Can you explain the inputs settings:

bars_back: 240
m: 4
i: 0
kstd: 1.0

I'm trading on the H4 timeframe. All the best in trading.

Riley
"Think Different From The Masses"
  • #140
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:37pm Oct 31, 2011 10:37pm
Quoting Riley
Hi rainingpips. I just joined FF today ever since i came across this thread. Interesting. Can you explain the inputs settings:

bars_back: 240
m: 4
i: 0
kstd: 1.0

I'm trading on the H4 timeframe. All the best in trading.

Riley

Heya Riley, welcome to FF.

Unfortunately Rainingpips hasn't been active on FF since October of last year, and this thread looks fairly dead. Good luck with your trading.
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