Trade Using VSA (Volume Spread Analysis)

Mr malcolmb; I disagree with you. Pro do care about forks. Read the writings of Timothy Morge at Marketgeometry.com There are many professional traders that use Andrew's methods because they are quantifiable in terms of frequentest probability of reversal as demonstrated by statistical back testing on many markets. For every action, there is a reaction. Median line studies have any uncanny knack of indicating at what prices inflection points are likely to occur. This is not to say that they will occur there, only that there is a 72% to 92% probability as measured across all markets from all five asset classes that an inflection point will occur at median lines, their parallels or warning lines.

Additionally, my post speculated on a pull back buy scenario such as would be expected in a bull move and opportune via a successful test or shake out as would be expected near the conclusion of additional accumulation prior to a continued up move. So it seems to me that you simply misunderstood what I wrote.

However, that aside, it is notable to me that you are quick to criticize others for actions in which you yourself engage. (Pots and Kettles, ehh?.) For example you criticized me for speculating on price targets based on Fibonacci extensions coupled with use of divergence via Woodies CCI (a well established high probability trading system used by many thousands of profitable traders) while you yourself use Fibs and Hulls MA to guess at potential inflection turning points. Now the formula for Hulls is:


HMA(n) = WMA(2*WMA(n/2) – WMA(n)),sqrt(n))


The formula for Weighted MA (WMA) is found here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighte...moving_average

Do professional traders give a shit about square roots or arithmetic equations? (I understand that most professional traders have business degrees. These are curriculums that are not math oriented.) Or perhaps professional traders care about convenient assumptions about arithmetic sequences of weighting coefficients chosen arbitrarily to comply with a triangular denominator? Without a Gaussian distribution derived from a data series that shows an overwhelming preponderance of positive results, WMA's and HMA's are nothing more than squiggly lines lagging price action. Yet you bet your account on these A Priori fantasies.

On the other had CCIs and APF are leading indicators showing probable path of PA and not a certain path. (There is not any trading Holy Grail, and volume analysis most certainly fits nicely into that category.) Taken in consideration with volume patterns a more accurate trading system should be derivable by combing the best aspects of several high probability trading systems to form a superior hybrid. This I seek to accomplish. Thus I disagree with those traders who attempt to purely emulate Tom Williams because trading and investing is not a game of how one determines entries and exits, but of how much does one make. Quoting Jesse Livingston from Lefarve's Reminiscences Of a Stock Operator: "The trader is only right when they make money."

None of this is to say I do not like you. Indeed, I do. Your commentary is often enlightening and informative. Therefore, I wish you good trading and many profits.

vsa is NO 1 reason for entering a trade. I said I did not see weakness on a 30 min and today we see the top of your fork broken to the upside. In order for a top to form I will look for valid VSA set up , not sell just cause the top line of a fork is there. My statement still stands on the fork as I have never really believed in them . If you had said we may see weakness at 109.20 due to this being resistance on a daily chart , then you would have seen no comment from me.

so now as to the debate of fork versus trend indie like a hulls moving average

fork ... advantage maybe traders do use them . Disadvantage is that they are manually plotted and open to interpretation as to how the fork should be drawn. Much like ew , give 10 traders the same chart they will all have a different value on their fork. some by a considerable amount . You are hoping that price stops and reverses at fork limits and lid quarters.

Hulls or other trend following indie:

Hulls , tradeguider diamonds , rsx or any other trend following indie will just keep you in the trade for as long as possible after we have entered it using a valid vsa set up and not try and pick an exact top and bottom. It follows price up or down ( depends on trend). Once one sees abnormal volume activity and a valid vsa st up for a trade in the opposite direction we can close the trade early.

as of Thursday low in asia hulls on a 30 min has been green . i was short on aj off 75.xx dues to buying climaxes on a double top but then we got a stopping volume on a 30 min in asia on Thursday and hulls turned up green. It was enough for me to close the trade. No need to even guess the market. All dips on a 15 min have been bought on the way up .

Give 10 traders the same chart with a hulls 34 sma on it they will all have the same value within 3 pip at any point in time.

enjoying your posts ... you put a lot of time and energy into them for sure.

I am not a big fib user and hulls moving average will never determine my targets as it can change at any time like any other moving average

for target area I use 2 things
1) high volume pivots of last 30 trading session
2) simple s/r on daily charts ....

nothing more complicated than that

now for ej and a trade entry that is forming ....been tracking same trade on aj tonight

selling climax on 1st target

closed trade for a quick few pips

I hope you are all having a fantastic week. I am back to baskets and thus far having a monster week which is nice after not trading that much (On vacation).

The chat is getting lively again so come on in and introduce yourself.

Good luck trading.

Shamus, it's been a while since I've downloaded a new build of the SMART system. At any rate, I'd like to say thanks for the audio alerts, but for someone who trades over 23 pairs some days, it doesn't do me much good. I hear "Pseudo Reverse Upthrust" and I have to scan through 23 charts to find it. Would you consider adding just a standard pop up alert in the indicators to say whatever the audio indicator would have said plus the symbol name?

eg That would be awesome! Thanks.

Yes sir we are on it. We are also likely going to create custom audio alerts per chart. I hope all is well.

Good luck trading.

Hi guys...
Today we shouldn't be trading but i did take GU short and long .. both side made some good pips.. ( demo at the moment ) .. For long smart showed the way .. I was too early but eventually Smart showed a test bar..

Shamus correct me if I'm wrong


http://content.screencast.com/users/...09-07_0142.png

http://www.screencast.com/users/Amin...3-5d1e893faecf
http://screencast.com/t/NTE2NzhiM2Qt
http://screencast.com/t/NTE2NzhiM2Qt

Hellou hoichoi,is it possible share this smart bar indicator? reg,,,sky

There are few signals today...

but took Spinning Row Boat .. only for few pips but it was a great move..

http://content.screencast.com/users/...09-08_0722.png

anyone have the Todd Krueger Wyckoff Analysis DVD series 1+2? Any good?

Thanks

Yea, contact me.

Best,
T

Porkie,

I have em, personally didnt find them to be that great, If you want them I would sell them (1+2) for half the price and ship em for free.

JustinM

ok thanks. I think I'll just stick with Tom Williams, and traders lab or elite trader has a load of wyckoff stuff for free. Cheers.

Justinm,
i think Todds videos are valuable in thing in matter of what to learn step by step.
Like in school.. You start with simplest things and then go advanced.
I havent seen in any those forums where this information would be putted from simplest to advanced.
Yes, we have a lot of free stuff here and there, but that doesnt gives those steps from what to start and then go further.

Just my opinion...

Best,
Tom

ttflyer,

I agree with what your saying in general, I have a friend that did find them to be very valuable, just stating my opinion. Maybe I hold to him to a high standard because I have read and seen previous work of his that has been really top notch.

thx

JustinM

i need to get another computer for my charts because mt4 uses too many resources for one computer. is it possible to get smart to work on two computers at the same time?

Odd. I have multiple charts running full smart template on a netbook with no issues but please send a ticket so we can get you fixed up.

SMART Update likely releasing tonight.
The update will include a couple of new advanced signal modules and global alert settings including popup alerts and a surprise or two

More details upon update.

I also posted some trade examples to the posterous site as well. Good luck trading guys and see you in the chat.

i'm reading the thread, but it is very long..

there's such a summary of what is most important?

i'd like to know this TS, but i'm not english, and i've some difficult in reading and understanding "all" this pages!!!!!

could someone help me??