Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 122 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #2,421
  • Aug 26, 2010 10:07am Aug 26, 2010 10:07am
Quoting medici
Btw, a warm welcome back here, Vantage! Good to have you here again
Cheers medici

My focus was away from 1 min charts lately.

I'm a sucker for divergence as you may recall and CII does appear to be as good as anything else for this. It seems of late that this is a major focus of the trades here. I'm struggling to find much written about it, do you have?

As happens friends sometimes drift and I should have popped by more often.
  • #2,422
  • Aug 26, 2010 10:07am Aug 26, 2010 10:07am
OK - I took one last trade before I finished - waited for the bounce into a LH on cable and then sold. Now I am finished for the day....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,423
  • Aug 26, 2010 10:57am Aug 26, 2010 10:57am
Quoting medici
SVCHOST.EXE taking over again, and reboot.... very good timing
Best to run a virus scanner, sometimes viruses hide as svchost.exe
  • #2,424
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:04am Aug 26, 2010 11:04am
Quoting Islander
Whilst I dont understand what that does, I do understand that when it doesn't do it, its a royal PIA......http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif
Indeed! And while I had intended to call it a day I'll steal a few more pips to make up for PIA suffered... See you tomorrow!
  • #2,425
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:29am Aug 26, 2010 11:29am
Quoting Vantage
Cheers medici

My focus was away from 1 min charts lately.

I'm a sucker for divergence as you may recall and CII does appear to be as good as anything else for this. It seems of late that this is a major focus of the trades here. I'm struggling to find much written about it, do you have?

As happens friends sometimes drift and I should have popped by more often.
I love divergence as well, and mean reversion (which is related) too - thus the BBs.

Yes, CI divergence has become a major focus here, or at least for me. It's effectiveness in indicating turning points is truly impressive. So I am tempted to conclude "If a trade isn't confirmed by CI-div don't take it, and if there is CI-div there will be a trade to be had." Research in progress still though.

You can see my sources here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1810

Connie Brown has also written a hardcore book called Technical Analysis For The Trading Professional where things are covered in more depth. On my shopping list, but I have other books in line before that.

My impression is that some serious, less simplistic, mathematical thinking has gone into the construction of CI in order to refine the divergence properties. I am happy to use it as such, but may one day dig into the details.

And apologies for not popping by your thread more often (I've got it subscribed) but HL/LHs aren't my cup of coffee unless they're on 1min
  • #2,426
  • Aug 26, 2010 2:27pm Aug 26, 2010 2:27pm
50% +37p
50% +46p
Can not enter at the HH and close at the LL of the swing as medici and Islander do but ...still very good pips for me
swing size 77 pips , so I took about 55% of it
comments are welcome
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  • #2,427
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:22pm Aug 26, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting david4u
50% +37p
50% +46p
Can not enter at the HH and close at the LL of the swing as medici and Islander do but ...still very good pips for me
swing size 77 pips , so I took about 55% of it
comments are welcome
Well done, David

One comment would be that 25 predictable pips a day is a lot better than 100 pips that come every now and then. From a business planning perspective the former is superior. That is also my argument for only trading the morning session - predictable income, whereas the NY session sometimes is a goldmine, like today, and sometimes just plain crap.

There are people that make a living from 10 pips a day, and in some ways I think they are the sanest of us. For those of us who approach trading like a performance sport the comment would be that price was way outside of the H1 almost flat BBs and there was strong CI divergence in that timeframe. In addition, 1.2765 is the 50% level of the 1.2196 to 1.3334 range, so when there's M5 divergence and price makes a halt a said level without attempts to re-test it in minutes, then when price starts moving down why not hit the sell button?
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  • #2,428
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:26pm Aug 26, 2010 3:26pm
Great thread guys, have been lurking all week, took this trade, mini lots eleven easy pips... I know its out of hours and there is very little volume, but I was here so went for it... CI divergence + R1, Just a few questions for Medici, where would you have entered this kinda trade, once you suspect divergence do you wait for one red candle and then enter..? Also on the CI are you using default settings..? What part do the B bans play in the entry ( R they just a heads up)..? On the CI indi can we use the Yellow and green line for any thing..?

Also thanks to yourself and Islander for all your hard work updating the thread..

Best regards from Ireland, Moxie
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  • #2,429
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:44pm Aug 26, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting Moxie
Just a few questions for Medici, where would you have entered this kinda trade, once you suspect divergence do you wait for one red candle and then enter..?
Moxie at least you have the discipline to close a winner at this time of night instead of forgetting about everything 'cept Jen Aniston like me!!

Regarding the question you posed for med, I know he's too modest to say so but I know the jammy dodger would have somehow got in with, oh, around 1pip drawdown
  • #2,430
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:47pm Aug 26, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting Moxie
Great thread guys, have been lurking all week, took this trade, mini lots eleven easy pips... I know its out of hours and there is very little volume, but I was here so went for it... CI divergence + R1, Just a few questions for Medici, where would you have entered this kinda trade, once you suspect divergence do you wait for one red candle and then enter..? Also on the CI are you using default settings..? What part do the B bans play in the entry ( R they just a heads up)..? On the CI indi can we use the Yellow and green line for any thing..?...
Hi Moxie and welcome to the thread.

As far as I'm concerned, that's a nice trade....price has moved up to a level in a wider ranged , solid green candle - a small wick on the top, so not quite a morubozo - then had a small inside bar making it a harami, so a sell on the break below it....the bearish divergence in CII had already alerted you and so you were looking for your trigger to enter short

I personally dont use BBs or the yellow / green lines on CII....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,431
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:50pm Aug 26, 2010 3:50pm
Quoting Islander
Hi Moxie and welcome to the thread.

As far as I'm concerned, that's a nice trade....price has moved up to a level in a wider ranged , solid green candle - a small wick on the top, so not quite a morubozo - then had a small inside bar making it a harami, so a sell on the break below it....the bearish divergence in CII had already alerted you and so you were looking for your trigger to enter short

I personally dont use BBs or the yellow / green lines on CII....
Islander hope it's not too rude to ask, but do you get to avoid any form of taxation being a skipper and all?
  • #2,432
  • Edited 5:22pm Aug 26, 2010 4:13pm | Edited 5:22pm
Quoting Moxie
Great thread guys, have been lurking all week, took this trade, mini lots eleven easy pips...
Now that's a nice evening treat! One week of study, and a perfect trade. Nice!!

Quote


I know its out of hours and there is very little volume, but I was here so went for it... CI divergence + R1, Just a few questions for Medici, where would you have entered this kinda trade, once you suspect divergence do you wait for one red candle and then enter..?

In general it depends on time of day and price action. Mornings are easier I find, whereas during the NY session there's equity index correlation to take into account. But that also depends...sometimes the correlation is in play, sometimes not. But after the London fix at 4pm usually more so.

So during the NY session I have SPX or DJI on a separate chart. In this case, as the final exhaustive burst up to 1.2740 happened, the equities hit the support (now turned resistance) that broke just after 7pm our time. In addition, I had 1.2735 marked on my chart as a level to watch.

Given the above I would probably have faded, i.e. entered short in this case, that final exhaustive marubozu candle (on M1) at around 1.2739. Research shows (Carol Osler, I think), and experience verifies, that the limit orders at which trends change direction are approached with high momentum exhaustive bursts, and I would have betted that this was one of them. But it all depends on price action and I wasn't watching this one. Another option would have been to enter on the break of 1.2735.


Quote

Also on the CI are you using default settings..? What part do the B bans play in the entry ( R they just a heads up)..? On the CI indi can we use the Yellow and green line for any thing..?

Yes, CI is used with default settings. The yellow and green lines not used at all. Indi version without them attached.

The BBs are statistically based in the sense that they map out the levels that are 2 standard deviations away from the SMA20. So 95% of the time price should stay within them. And most reversal happen close to or outside them, so when they are close to flat or when there's strong CI divergence, and price is at our outside them, you have a possible setup. Stay tuned for more examples.

Quote


Also thanks to yourself and Islander for all your hard work updating the thread..

You're welcome. And posts like yours make it all worthwhile.

Quote


Best regards from Ireland, Moxie

So where in Ireland are you? I used to hold the respectable (?) title of Senior Financial Analyst with a Dublin based firm even though I lived outside of Galway. Good time in my life
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  • #2,433
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:17pm Aug 26, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting Sim
Islander hope it's not too rude to ask, but do you get to avoid any form of taxation being a skipper and all?
That's an excellent question to ask in a public forum!
  • #2,434
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:17pm Aug 26, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting Sim
Moxie at least you have the discipline to close a winner at this time of night instead of forgetting about everything 'cept Jen Aniston like me!!

Regarding the question you posed for med, I know he's too modest to say so but I know the jammy dodger would have somehow got in with, oh, around 1pip drawdown
Hi sim could you please explain how Medici would have got a 1 pip draw down.
I also heard him say something yesterday about risk of 5% with a 2pip draw down yesterday.
I have porbably missed something posted that explained it would be greatfull if you could help me out.

Cheers
  • #2,435
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:20pm Aug 26, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting reflex
Hi sim could you please explain how Medici would have got a 1 pip draw down.
I also heard him say something yesterday about risk of 5% with a 2pip draw down yesterday.
I have porbably missed something posted that explained it would be greatfull if you could help me out.

Cheers
I'll do my best buddy.. but so far all I know is that he works some voodoo magic in reading PA which allows him to enter so close to the predetermined levels he shares here witih us but at a much better price than what I currently have the skill to do ! Haha
  • #2,436
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:22pm Aug 26, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting Sim
I'll do my best buddy.. but so far all I know is that he works some voodoo magic in reading PA which allows him to enter so close to the predetermined levels he shares here witih us but at a much better price than what I currently have the skill to do ! Haha

Oh right I think I get it and becasue Medici might have called the high to within a couple of pips his risk is tiny?

Cheers for the help.
  • #2,437
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:26pm Aug 26, 2010 4:26pm
Hi medici as you see have just been talking to sim about your way of entering and just have one quick question say you enter 15536 fro example becasue you had BBs CI ect with you where do you decide to close this trade if it goes against you.
Is it if the area you thought it was going to turn gets taken out?
  • #2,438
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:29pm Aug 26, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting reflex
Oh right I think I get it and becasue Medici might have called the high to within a couple of pips his risk is tiny?

Cheers for the help.
Yep it basically comes down to his previous analysis of the critical levels, then his gauge of current price around there

(I hope)
  • #2,439
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:29pm Aug 26, 2010 4:29pm
Interesting discussion boys... That almost no drawdown thing is about having identified the level in advance and entering at the level confirmed by CI, BB, PA, etc. So no voodoo at all.

Study BRVs thread for the S/R levels and add Fibs (Bobokus' thread is a good place) to that, and you have your candidates.

But off a naked chart...never!

EDIT: And I have to add that during the NY session I sometimes take a whipping, but generally not in the morning. i.e. before NYO2.
  • #2,440
  • Edited 4:41pm Aug 26, 2010 4:36pm | Edited 4:41pm
Quoting medici
Interesting discussion boys... That almost no drawdown thing is about having identified the level in advance and entering at the level confirmed by CI, BB, PA, etc. So no voodoo at all.

Study BRVs thread for the S/R levels and and Fibs (Bobokus' thread is a good place) to that, and you have your candidates.

But off a naked chart...never!

EDIT: And I have to add that during the NY session I sometimes take a whipping, but generally not in the morning.
Not really a chart related question but did you teach yourself how to trade?
I was thinking the other day how hard it must have been to learn to trade without threads and all the info on the net these days.
Well would have been impossible for me without threads like this one and Daves!
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