Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 120 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #2,381
  • Aug 26, 2010 2:55am Aug 26, 2010 2:55am
and cable's action so far.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aug 26 cable 1m lo plus 50m.gif Size: 19 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,382
  • Aug 26, 2010 2:59am Aug 26, 2010 2:59am
We sold the failed move up (2b 1 2 3 variation) lh at 5571, got out at BE when +8 failed a few times to follow through.
  • #2,383
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:04am Aug 26, 2010 3:04am
Taking a sell off the 1m / 5m signals wasnt difficult with this divergence showing....now its just a matter of waiting for the retrace to run its course.....and currently the €s not helping....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,384
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:06am Aug 26, 2010 3:06am
Btw, a warm welcome back here, Vantage! Good to have you here again
  • #2,385
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:07am Aug 26, 2010 3:07am
Quoting Islander
HAve a great time - one of my family who now lives in Oz has a big mobile home thingy and tows a Wrangler - he's just finishing a 2 year trip around Oz and I've heard lots of great stories....
I would LOVE to do this but my wife won't so it would be rather lonely.

Each year I come up with another plan for a trip away and she reluctantly agrees, I have seen most of Oz but it has taken me about 7 years to fill in the map.
Money grows on the tree of persistence
  • #2,386
  • Edited 3:21am Aug 26, 2010 3:10am | Edited 3:21am
M30 trend line
Will post more on higher TF's

Quoting medici
I don't have much experience with trend lines on longer term charts, and I don't know how unreliable they are. So some supporting evidence on that would be of interest.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,387
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:15am Aug 26, 2010 3:15am
Quoting david4u
M30 trend line
Will post more on higher TF's
Thanks. That's a good one. What I meant by higher TFs was daily and above.
  • #2,388
  • Edited 3:56am Aug 26, 2010 3:23am | Edited 3:56am
medici
don't you think that if we trade M5/M1
the H4 should be ok ?
Tks

Quoting medici
Thanks. That's a good one. What I meant by higher TFs was daily and above.
  • #2,389
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:32am Aug 26, 2010 3:32am
Quoting david4u
medici
don't you think that if we trade M5/M1
then H4 should be ok ?
Tks
Of course, and that was exactly my point in response to reflex - that I am comfortable with TLs on H4 and below, but that I have less evidence to support their use on monthly charts. Indeed, the fx market hasn't been around long enough for any such evidence to have much significance.
  • #2,390
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:35am Aug 26, 2010 3:35am
My last post for this morning, highlighting the use of divergence even on this chart - thanks Medici for reminding me about it

Again, a 50% retrace which cable loves....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aug 26 cable 1m lo plus 90m.gif Size: 18 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,391
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:37am Aug 26, 2010 3:37am
Quoting Islander
My last post for this morning, highlighting the use of divergence even on this chart - thanks Medici for reminding me about it

Again, a 50% retrace which cable loves....
Thank you for hard work with the charts Those are exactly the entries and exits that I saw as well. Great chart.
  • #2,392
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:38am Aug 26, 2010 3:38am
This was against pos close 15 min candles but 15 min had upper wick and the vol in move up on 5 min clearly falling away. The res area is clearly shown on 5 min at the 5565 W pivot. Nice lh entry.

Out at psych level/Apr high for +23.
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  • #2,393
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:44am Aug 26, 2010 3:44am
And here's the M5 CI divergence summary of the morning.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable m5 26 aug.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #2,394
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:03am Aug 26, 2010 4:03am
Quoting medici
Thank you for hard work with the charts Those are exactly the entries and exits that I saw as well. Great chart.

Thanks - I hope that they help others understand what we're trying to do....

We're both seeing momentum decreasing and price has just held at the R2 level, but I still expect the 15m DZ - 38 to 61% retraces - to be tested with the MR 2 just above the 00.....TWT.....BFN
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,395
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:23am Aug 26, 2010 4:23am
Medici , Islander & all
Have "some" questions about entry points , setup chart , trigger chart , TP's ...
EU H1 ...I see price on an upper channel , so for me it's a CT
EU M5... I see :
H1 TL + 3sd at point c +127% ret ext of a-b + price trying to break/stay above y's H + bearish div c-d + Double Top c-d
and it's a few min after LO
taking in mind it's a CT , my question is where to enter , and if to wait for any type of confirmation OR we have enough convergence around point d to enter short , with a small SL .
So one option can be to jump at around d or the bar after d .
Other option may be to look for a trigger on M1 ...
On M1 ... I see .... not much difference in this case from M5.
Can jump on d
can wait for price to cross down Y's H (which is the Low of the DT)
can wait for price to break down SMA20
can wait for price to make a ret to the 1st LH (to late...)
But I think you would say to jump on point d as we have more than enough reasons/confluence at this point , with a small SL and excellent RRR .
And... what about TP's ?
will it be a fix amount of pips ?:nerd:
Last Low at b ? Today's Low at m ?
Next bullish div ?
Do you trail your SL in any way ? (like above SMA20)
partial closing ?
Tks !
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  • #2,396
  • Edited 5:37am Aug 26, 2010 4:44am | Edited 5:37am
Quoting david4u
Medici , Islander & all
Have "some" questions about entry points , setup chart , trigger chart , TP's ...
EU H1 ...I see price on an upper channel , so for me it's a CT
EU M5... I see :
H1 TL + 3sd at point c +127% ret ext of a-b + price trying to break/stay above y's H + bearish div c-d + Double Top c-d
and it's a few min after LO
taking in mind it's a CT , my question is where to enter , and if to wait for any type of confirmation OR we have enough convergence around point d to enter short , with a small SL .
So one option can be to jump...
All good questions. I concur with your analysis, and I would enter at point d, as you say.

I don't agree that M1 wouldn't give you more information. There's a rejection candle on the attempt to touch 2745, and then no further attempts to break above. So when price starts to move south you hit 'sell'.

As for TP, the old battle line (see M30 chart for example) at 1.2682 looked a reasonable target.

I don't trail stops. I move stop to BE when sufficiently in the money, and if I start to doubt that my target will be reached I exit at a 'level' where I suspect that the journey might end.

Trailing stops cost pips. Good if you are trading long term, but intraday you want to get as much as possible out of the swings. So from 'level to level' or 'divergence to divergence' is the way to go IMHO.
  • #2,397
  • Aug 26, 2010 4:54am Aug 26, 2010 4:54am
At 1.30 we have US Unemployment Claims. Next to NFP and ADP the biggest monthly news release for the dollar.

Join in for some news trading off the M1 charts!
  • #2,398
  • Aug 26, 2010 6:31am Aug 26, 2010 6:31am
Another example of a TL break and EMA20 gap LH.
Didn't do this one as had finished for the morning trades were posted on Vs thread.

Cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,399
  • Aug 26, 2010 6:33am Aug 26, 2010 6:33am
medici
In this trade were do you think you would have exited ?
I can see S/R A , so at 1, I can see a posibble exit of the short trade .
At 2 , price was above SMA20 , so not easy to hold ...

S/R B , at point 3 with a hammer like at MR1 lv , and at 4 with a confirmation of the hammer ...
So not easy to hold till next div in conlfuence with 1.2682 , that you have mentioned before (M30) , and to be able to close the short at 5 or at the next bar (6).
Looking forward to hear in opinion
Tks
David

Quoting medici
and if I start to doubt that my target will be reached I exit at a 'level' where I suspect that the journey might end.

So from 'level to level' or 'divergence to divergence' is the way to go IMHO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu m5 exit.jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #2,400
  • Aug 26, 2010 6:38am Aug 26, 2010 6:38am
Quoting reflex
Another example of a TL break and EMA20 gap LH.
Didn't do this one as had finished for the morning trades were posted on Vs thread.

Cheers.
Thanks. NIce chart. And in my parlance that was CI reverse divergence at close to 3 SDs from the 20SMA at the old battleline 5553, so you enter at that level without thinking twice. And not once either for that matter.
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