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vsa with Malcolm

  • #2,921
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:16am Aug 25, 2010 12:16am
Quoting malcolmb14
Heavy selling on 15 min ? seems all the volume happened at end of day YET the stock could not get a new daily high .. buyers or sellers ?

I expect lower prices tomorrow on this stock .... but that is just me .... I have yet to master vsa on stocks intraday

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Daily gives a better picture.
  • #2,922
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:21am Aug 25, 2010 12:21am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Daily gives a better picture.
cannot see it still

If we got another low vol test then I would agree .... but right now all I see is weakness

the kind of testing supply has been picked up by tg as an ut ... I would give this a few more days before you buy

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  • #2,923
  • Aug 25, 2010 1:03am Aug 25, 2010 1:03am
Quoting malcolmb14
Heavy selling on 15 min ? seems all the volume happened at end of day YET the stock could not get a new daily high .. buyers or sellers ?

I expect lower prices tomorrow on this stock .... but that is just me .... I have yet to master vsa on stocks intraday

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Good Morning Malcolmb

It is curious that so great a volume would be evident at EOD. Unless, MSs were heavily buying to ready accounts for tomorrow with the intent of gaping MO down so as to fulfill demand for gap filler and run buyers.
  • #2,924
  • Aug 25, 2010 1:05am Aug 25, 2010 1:05am
Quoting rbumbalough
Good Morning Malcolmb

It is curious that so great a volume would be evident at EOD. Unless, MSs were heavily buying to ready accounts for tomorrow with the intent of gaping MO down so as to fulfill demand for gap filler buyers.
something is going on .... and i think downage .. if not tomorrow then by end next week .... lets follow along on this stock and see how vsa can be used for stocks
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,925
  • Aug 25, 2010 2:02am Aug 25, 2010 2:02am
malcolmb do you have any faith in 4 hr vol or do you just disregaurd it all together?
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  • #2,926
  • Aug 25, 2010 2:43am Aug 25, 2010 2:43am
Seems that down moves are being bought on EU, and we are 20 minutes away from important news... let's see what happens then.
For now, I'm in a buy @ 1.2649, with a 20 pips SL and a 40 pips TP (adjustable if needed).
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  • #2,927
  • Aug 25, 2010 2:53am Aug 25, 2010 2:53am
Quoting tonirai
Seems that down moves are being bought on EU, and we are 20 minutes away from important news... let's see what happens then.
For now, I'm in a buy @ 1.2649, with a 20 pips SL and a 40 pips TP (adjustable if needed).
SL @ breakeven.
  • #2,928
  • Aug 25, 2010 3:04am Aug 25, 2010 3:04am
Quoting tonirai
SL @ breakeven.
Removed the TP before the news, because it got there so fast, and triggered a trailing SL when the news came out... managed to squeeze some more pips out of it.
Closed at 1.2714... 65 pips bagged. Day is done
  • #2,929
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:28am Aug 25, 2010 4:28am
OK chaps, here we go.
What did I do wrong?

This is a GU chart from yesterday. I did my analysis according to "Scenario A", which showed strength almost everywhere in the background.
I thought after two stopping volumes, break of TL and Res it will go a bit sideways when sellers came in on the second mark-up bar, but generally my opinion was that it might have been another accumulation phase seeing no supply and two other mark-ups on increasing vol - hurray, it will rise again.
Wrong, it hit my SL.

Obviously, in hindsight my analysis is "Scenario B", which shows weakness in the background considering what happened after my entry.

I've been studying VSA for over a year and in the stock markets I have more or less successfully applied it, but not in Forex...

My question to the pros: how do you know how much it'll move for sure? How can you tell that an M5-M15 setup will move 50-80 pips which I often see on your posted charts?

My experience is the following on GU and EU (w/ higher TF confirmation):
M5 setup: max. 5-10 pips, M15 setup: max 10-20 pips, H1 setup: max 30-50 pips

I want to get rid of market noise but that seems impossible on lower TF's. Obviously I can trade on H1-H4 with small positions to get to the same profit, but that requires 50-60 pip SL's and waiting for days for a decent setup - meanwhile I know there are 10-15 setups a day on M5-M15 which I want to ride.

Thanks for your comments

hsa
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  • #2,930
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:43am Aug 25, 2010 4:43am
hi, i have been watching this thread for a couple of months now and learning VSA, i like it alot. Now im only a novice but where i think you should have bought is after the no supply bar after the shake out which you have as the 4th stopping vol. @ the close of the 3rd bar, then you can see that the next 2 down bars are increasing vol and not closing on the lows meaning buyers.
  • #2,931
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:49am Aug 25, 2010 4:49am
Thanks wbh,
That's absolutely true, I should have, but I arrived at my screen at the second mark-up bar... so missed the good entry.


Quoting wbh
hi, i have been watching this thread for a couple of months now and learning VSA, i like it alot. Now im only a novice but where i think you should have bought is after the no supply bar after the shake out which you have as the 4th stopping vol. @ the close of the 3rd bar, then you can see that the next 2 down bars are increasing vol and not closing on the lows meaning buyers.
  • #2,932
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:03am Aug 25, 2010 5:03am
hsa013
You have marked effort to rise wide bar, closing in middle with high volume as a strong bar. Dont you think that is a weak bar, lots of selling, or why close is in the middle?
  • #2,933
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:12am Aug 25, 2010 5:12am
juhamini,
Thanks for your comment. That's also true.
However, on M15 I've seen even weaker mark-up bars in the past that eventually resulted in a higher move.
You see, that's my biggest problem, market noise and randomness. Should I trust it or should I not...
(In this case I should have)


Quoting juhanimi
hsa013
You have marked effort to rise wide bar, closing in middle with high volume as a strong bar. Dont you think that is a weak bar, lots of selling, or why close is in the middle?
  • #2,934
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:22am Aug 25, 2010 5:22am
hsa013

Is there a No demand, sixth bar after that weak bar.
I dont trade GU, but I get curios so I put that chart on to my platform.
  • #2,935
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:12am Aug 25, 2010 7:12am
Quoting hsa013
OK chaps, here we go.
What did I do wrong?

This is a GU chart from yesterday....
I am also student of vsa
According to my analysis there are many thing which help to understand the movement in price ie. how far this move will go.
1 Back ground
2 Daily Range.
3 time of entry or move.
4 and Place of entry

As you show that you entered long when there was already a very high upmove on high volume and second up bar closed in middle.
This is weakness which shows there is probability of a large fall up to 50 or more pips.
GU avg daily Rang was 131 pips and at excessive selling bar move was 132 pis so it had completed its daily move and there was weakness in back ground and we had seen a no demand bar after that bar see in chart. then why were you looking for test of supply.

It was time to see further weekness no-demand or up thrust.
Next up move could not cross level of no demand bar.

This is my opinion. I am also student of VSA
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  • #2,936
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:40am Aug 25, 2010 7:40am
Quoting hsa013
OK chaps, here we go.
What did I do wrong?

This is a GU chart from yesterday. I did my analysis according to "Scenario A", which showed strength almost everywhere in the background.
I thought after two stopping volumes, break of TL and Res it will go a bit sideways when sellers came in on the second mark-up bar, but generally my opinion was that it might have been another accumulation phase seeing no supply and two other mark-ups on increasing vol - hurray, it will rise again.
Wrong, it hit my SL.

Obviously, in hindsight my analysis is "Scenario...
Hi hsa

Please take a look at a post I made yesterday.

Bare in mind the strength we see during the end of the down move and that we are in a double bottom scenario.

Mal has posted about the second down move which got you stopped out but, I cannot find where he posted.
  • #2,937
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:39am Aug 25, 2010 8:39am
basic ....

the up move that you are saying strength into 1.5480 was realy weakness... ultra high volume up bars that send market sideways are hidden sellers 90 % of time. Whenever I see one of those i look for further weakness and on a 15 min we had a no deman 8 bars after that supply hitting market.

Quoting hsa013
OK chaps, here we go.
What did I do wrong?

This is a GU chart from yesterday....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,938
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:48am Aug 25, 2010 8:48am
Excellent comments, thanks all.
This is how one can learn the most.

Malcolm,
Could you share your views on the strength of a move and market noise (see my previous post on TF's and related moves).
How can you tell for sure that it'll move let's say 60 pips based on a setup on M5-M15? Is your R/R approx 1:1 or better?

(if you've already discussed this in this thread ignore me, I still have about 50 pages left for reading)
  • #2,939
  • Aug 25, 2010 9:19am Aug 25, 2010 9:19am
Quoting hsa013
Excellent comments, thanks all.
This is how one can learn the most.

Malcolm,
Could you share your views on the strength of a move and market noise (see my previous post on TF's and related moves).
How can you tell for sure that it'll move let's say 60 pips based on a setup on M5-M15? Is your R/R approx 1:1 or better?

(if you've already discussed this in this thread ignore me, I still have about 50 pages left for reading)
well we had a news move that took us back into the resistance area.

at the resistance are 1.5480 we saw supply hitting market I have marekd up chart for rest

gu moves in 50 pip packages , when we see strength or weakness we know the next move should be at least 50 pip , this is how I get intermediate targets. I also use prior areas s/r and value areas . Note way how the move was capped by resistance , when you took the long you were only a few pips under that resistance , better to wait for mark up thru resistance then a low vol test

my r;r is 1;1 or better

today I have stayed out the market as pa is just ugly. this is another way I reduce my risk
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  • #2,940
  • Aug 25, 2010 10:11am Aug 25, 2010 10:11am
Quoting malcolmb14
basic ....

the up move that you are saying strength into 1.5480 was realy weakness... ultra high volume up bars that send market sideways are hidden sellers 90 % of time. Whenever I see one of those i look for further weakness and on a 15 min we had a no deman 8 bars after that supply hitting market.
@hsa

This is why I said to exit the trade when I did. Not, as some would have you believe, because I could see it was near the top of the move. But because of all the weakness which had appeared after I had entered long. The trade was good but its important to know when you're done......and that trade was done for as soon as SM showed their intentions.

Mal said earlier that GU moves in 50 pip waves (or there abouts) well there was a good example....ok it was 60 pips this time but you get the idea.

If you want to know more about targets, follow Mals posts intently. He is VERY good at predicting where the moves might start and end. Also, he explains WHY he thinks this.
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