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Forward Testing Discussion Thread

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 28, 2006 2:52pm Jan 24, 2006 12:21am | Edited Jan 28, 2006 2:52pm
This thread is restricted for the expicit purpose of forward testing a particular trading strategy using VP software. Out of respect for those doing the forward testing please do not use this thread to debate or derail decisions that have already been agreed upon by the participants. It has already been concluded that the daily range of support and resistance will be the entry points for trades. Due to time contraints and also for reasons of focus that is no longer up for debate or discussion.

There are two types of posts that may be included here:

1. Posts from the participants. These people are the ones actually doing the forward testing. They will have the right to discuss or debate decisions about the testing and the system until the final call is made by BeachBum who is in charge of the forward testing. If you still feel strongly about your position after a call has been made then please feel free to PM BB or myself to discuss it further.

2. The onlookers. These people may make discuss, and/or make suggestions/observations within the boundaries of what decisions are already made but not the right to debate them on this thread. As an onlooker please do not make posts outside of the state intentions in this thread that you'd feel badly about losing a post of yours if it were deleted.

FT
  • #2
  • Jan 24, 2006 9:29am Jan 24, 2006 9:29am
I'm here and ready to test...................

please see my last post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&postcount=214
  • #3
  • Jan 24, 2006 10:12am Jan 24, 2006 10:12am
BB,

I think you should be the moderator of the testing...let's set 4 parameters to test with each testing session, say 2-4 weeks. I believe robrob is a third and I'm sure there is a 4th out there, just need them to join in. I would like to see this remain mechanical in nature w/o discretion other than possibly exiting trades at the end of each day with new data provided...??? I am also hoping to see more pairs tested at one time, I know you said just EUR/USD, but if it is all set and forget why don't we go with say 6 pairs for each round, get your data each evening, set your entries p/t s/l and post the results...this way we could get a better feel for more pairs at once using all the same strategies. Combine the best of the best and we should get some unique results for each pair.

What do you think??

THx,
drjoe
  • #4
  • Jan 24, 2006 11:13am Jan 24, 2006 11:13am
Anyone else care to join in?

Trinity ?
Rocket ?
foggytrader ?
  • #5
  • Jan 24, 2006 2:22pm Jan 24, 2006 2:22pm
Count me in.
  • #6
  • Jan 24, 2006 3:23pm Jan 24, 2006 3:23pm
Quoting spudbox
Count me in.
THX SPUD, we've got 4, anyone else care to join?

1. BB
2. drjoe
3. robrob
4. spudbox
5. ???
6. ???

I'd say let's set a deadline of Wed/Thurs for those to join who are going to join.
BB can set the parameters and we can collaborate to decide which pairs, how many pairs, etc... to trade and discuss the ins and outs of the mechanical trading through this weekend. I would say we can begin on Monday with the trading.
  • #7
  • Jan 24, 2006 3:50pm Jan 24, 2006 3:50pm
Add me please.
  • #8
  • Jan 24, 2006 3:55pm Jan 24, 2006 3:55pm
does the platform matter ... I can use Meta trader but I am more comfortable with FXCM?
  • #9
  • Jan 24, 2006 3:59pm Jan 24, 2006 3:59pm
what system will you be testing? do you have a doc or an outline? would like to review and potentially participate.

thanks mucho
  • #10
  • Jan 24, 2006 5:13pm Jan 24, 2006 5:13pm
Quoting Rocket
does the platform matter ... I can use Meta trader but I am more comfortable with FXCM?
Thx Rocket,

I believe it would be more consistent if we all used the same platform, however, I will let BB/Fiji decide if it is really that important or not. I think that makes five of us.
  • #11
  • Jan 24, 2006 5:17pm Jan 24, 2006 5:17pm
Quoting fxhobo
what system will you be testing? do you have a doc or an outline? would like to review and potentially participate.

thanks mucho
We are going to be forward testing mechanical trading strategies using Vantage Point software data. If you are unfamiliar with VP, please refer to the VP software review threads provided by fijitrader for a full review. This will be an ongoing process and you could probably join it at some time if you are new to this software...if you already have it and are wanting to participate now, then great...if not, you may follow along this thread and the upcoming results thread for our testing results.

Thx,

drjoe
  • #12
  • Jan 24, 2006 7:25pm Jan 24, 2006 7:25pm
Quoting drjoe4x
Thx Rocket,

I believe it would be more consistent if we all used the same platform, however, I will let BB/Fiji decide if it is really that important or not. I think that makes five of us.
It would be nice to have the same platform for all but to retain consistency. However if mt4 is not possible please state the platform you are using in all your posts (only if it is other than MT4) so there is no confusion. (You may want to use your signature line for this.)

Also I think the idea of closing all trades between 5 and 6 PM eastern time makes sense.

I like the idea of using all six currencies but please keep each day and each currency separate.

I'm not anticipating great results from a non-directionally biased forward test but I still think the exercise will be valid, useful, and revealing. I'd also recommend 4 weeks rather than two. Additionally I'd like to see either uniform money management or no money management.

In every case I'd also like to see a new demo account that is the same size for all. It will make results extrapolation much easier. Also to make sure that nobody runs out of margin in case of a major meltdown I'd also like to see 10k account trading 1 mini lot, 100k account trading 1 standard lot or something like that so that everyone has the same leverage, account size, etc. We don't need to spend a lot of time converting results which will be an extra burden on the person collating results.

Thanks,

FT
  • #13
  • Jan 24, 2006 7:32pm Jan 24, 2006 7:32pm
Quoting fxhobo
what system will you be testing? do you have a doc or an outline? would like to review and potentially participate.

thanks mucho
Perhaps an exact rules list such as:

1. place entry orders for a single lot in each of the six currencies from 6 to 6:15 PM EST each day.
2. Leave stop at initial setting until either the target is hit or the stop is hit.
3. When one order is hit the other should be cancelled for the day.
4. Close all trades between 5 and 6 pm EST.
5. If market opens outside the predicted range do not enter that day on that currency.

The above list is a suggestion only about how the rules should look and open for discussion.

FT
  • #14
  • Jan 24, 2006 9:20pm Jan 24, 2006 9:20pm
Quoting fijitrader
. Additionally I'd like to see either uniform money management or no money management.

In every case I'd also like to see a new demo account that is the same size for all. It will make results extrapolation much easier. Also to make sure that nobody runs out of margin in case of a major meltdown I'd also like to see 10k account trading 1 mini lot, 100k account trading 1 standard lot or something like that so that everyone has the same leverage, account size, etc. We don't need to spend a lot of time converting results which will be an extra burden on the person collating results.

Thanks,

FT
If we are all placing 1 potential trade per day, 1 mini lot, what difference does money management or account size make?

assuming a major meltdown could be consider 2-300 pips ( or more) which is $200-$300 dollars, most demo accounts are $5000 or more so we should be well contained.
  • #15
  • Jan 24, 2006 9:45pm Jan 24, 2006 9:45pm
Quoting Rocket
If we are all placing 1 potential trade per day, 1 mini lot, what difference does money management or account size make?

assuming a major meltdown could be consider 2-300 pips ( or more) which is $200-$300 dollars, most demo accounts are $5000 or more so we should be well contained.
I think it is important to standardize those items.

I don't care what the numbers are but that they be standardized and hopefully avoid any pitfalls. Without mentioning those issues -- it was not beyond my imagination that someone may take a 5000.00 account, trade standard contract sizes, enter 6 trades a day, take a bunch of losses and run out of margin before completing the exercise. It also occurred to me that if everyone was using different size accounts or not using the same mm rules -- it would create extra work when it came to analyzing results. If you'll notice I also favored the "six trades a day" approach. Obviously the discussion is not over but that was my input. It is up to BB to make the final call since he has taken the job of coordination.

FT
  • #16
  • Jan 24, 2006 9:54pm Jan 24, 2006 9:54pm
Quoting Rocket
If we are all placing 1 potential trade per day, 1 mini lot, what difference does money management or account size make?

assuming a major meltdown could be consider 2-300 pips ( or more) which is $200-$300 dollars, most demo accounts are $5000 or more so we should be well contained.
It doesn't and I believe no money management is needed for the forward testing since pips gained/lost is the only significant data we will be looking for (along with why we are gaining or losing). Money management is simply what each trader must implement on his/her own when demo trading or live trading when seriously trying to develop a profitable trading strategy. Money management is a must in all other trading situations but with nothing changing on our daily trades, just don't think it matters here...main goal is will this setting produce PIPS or not. I think the important thing is to have a set of rules much like fiji has suggested, trade 1 mini lot per trade, set entries, exits, and exit the trade prior to next day data if not yet stopped or t/p not hit.

I think a trend definition is a must and should be mentioned in each results post beside the trades entered and exited so we can get a feel of how trades are going with and against the trend. If fiji or BB would be willing to construct a results structure so we can all post results in the exact same format throughout the week would be great.

drjoe
  • #17
  • Jan 25, 2006 3:55am Jan 25, 2006 3:55am
Quoting fijitrader
Post here only with regard to VP s/r forward testing discussions.

FT
Good morning everyone...robrob here, and if its alright with everyone, I will be demo testing the breakout scenario previously discussed: enter 10 pips beyond the predicted high/low, with a 25 pip stop loss and a 50 pip target...

yesterday, i demo traded 4 pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF with entry orders 10 pips each side of the predicted high and low.

Results: only one trade was triggered: USD/JPY triggered at 00:40, stopped out at 22:49 for a 25 pip loss.......all other open positions closed out at 5pm yesterday.

for today.....entered same currency pairs @7pm last night....as of this morning as i write this, the USD/JPY and the GBP/USD have triggered, and BOTH have been stopped out for a 25 pip loss....interesting!

Starting tonight, I will only demo the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD for the next few weeks........the results should be interesting...doesnt look too promising right now, but that will only be confirmed (one way or the other) with continued testing...

As I mentioned in an earlier thread, I may not be able to post the results every night, but will attempt to do so...

Good trading to all.............will be anxious to see how everone else's testing is progressing...

God bless!

robrob
  • #18
  • Jan 25, 2006 4:19am Jan 25, 2006 4:19am
Quoting robrob
Good morning everyone...robrob here, and if its alright with everyone, I will be demo testing the breakout scenario previously discussed: enter 10 pips beyond the predicted high/low, with a 25 pip stop loss and a 50 pip target...

Good trading to all.............will be anxious to see how everone else's testing is progressing...

God bless!

robrob
Good morning again!

just discovered the first page of this thread I didnt see prior to sending the above comments.....with that in mind (and given the addtl info provided there)..

I first of all want to note that I am using the FXCM platform for demo testing...its what I am most familiar with,and what I've been using since I started, so by default thats what I'm using......I'm really not even familiar with the other platrform mentioned in this thread, so I guess I will continue to use the FXCM platform.

Lastly, if we definitely are going to demo 6 currencies, which ones? or can it be any 6 of our choosing....?

Please let me know which 6 to demo if there's a preference.

Thank you!

robrob
  • #19
  • Jan 25, 2006 6:06am Jan 25, 2006 6:06am
Is it feasable that a standard log record is set up in excel and the participants each send the results of there assigned pair to our point of contact .. BB in this case. B could then maintain a running record and post the excell speadsheet daily or weekly ..?
  • #20
  • Edited 7:28am Jan 25, 2006 7:22am | Edited 7:28am
Hello everyone.....

I would like to recap where we are with the forward testing program to be sure all participants are on the same page:

4 week test period
trade 6 currency pairs: (eur/usd, gbp/usd, usd/chf, usd/jpy, aud/usd, usd/cad)
enter orders between 6:00 and 6:30 pm est
close all trades the following day between 5:00 and 6:00 pm est
$ 10,000 mini demo account
one lot per trade per currency pair
trade all six pairs five days a week
don't change the s/l or the t/p during the trading day
when one order is filled for each currency, cancel the other order
if market opens outside the predicted range, do not enter that day on that currency
no money management
use Meta Trader platform (some of you may not be familiar with this trading platform. I will help anyone set this up, it's really simple to do and use and will allow all of us to be on the same trading platform. PM me for help if you want or if it's OK with FT, I'll post the help here.......

participants:

bb
spudbox
drjoe4x
Rocket
robrob

drjoe4x: you mentioned putting together a results structure. can you help with this? PM about this if you want.

Rocket: you mentioned using an Excel sheet. Can you help with the design? I am willing to maintain this and post on this thread. PM me if you want.

OK....what have I missed? Or what needs to be changed?

Thanks to FT for helping put all this together for us. This is, I believe, just the beginning of something very useful for all of us who are using VP and want to maximaize the results from that software.
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