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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #781
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:56pm Aug 24, 2010 5:56pm
AU has now completed a 3 week period of moving down, next week should see a move back up into the green highs currently sitting at 8964, this matches with the September pivot point (yellow). From here I would expect to see another 3 weeks of moving to the lows and during these 3 weeks I would expect to see some much bigger moves than during August. I have a target of 81 by the end of the quarter for this pair.
Even if the rest of this week moves lower I will still be looking for the swing back up next week.
I am not holding any au positions and won't trade this pair again until next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #782
  • Aug 24, 2010 6:05pm Aug 24, 2010 6:05pm
DX moved back to the green midpoints on Tuesday, this completed the technical correction that has been needed since Friday. Today this should continue up into the green highs at 83.81.

At the same time eu moved back into the midpoints. I had short orders sitting at 1.2700 which were hit. I am adding these to my longterm shorts, I have a target of 1.1802 by the end of September.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx.GIF Size: 20 KB
  • #783
  • Aug 24, 2010 6:10pm Aug 24, 2010 6:10pm
Dow has had a daily close below the green lows and should continue to trade lower down to Wednesdays green lows.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow.GIF Size: 13 KB
  • #784
  • Edited 8:39pm Aug 24, 2010 8:24pm | Edited 8:39pm
Quoting amyc
DX moved back to the green midpoints on Tuesday, this completed the technical correction that has been needed since Friday. Today this should continue up into the green highs at 83.81.

At the same time eu moved back into the midpoints. I had short orders sitting at 1.2700 which were hit. I am adding these to my longterm shorts, I have a target of 1.1802 by the end of September.
The last 4hr close on the euro says it should move back into 1.2714 on Wednesday before any lower lows are made. But remembering back to the first 6 months of the year the euro was not always good at moving up into resistance when the charts suggested it should have, sometimes the trend in the higher timeframes overrides what the smaller ones say. I will continue to hold the shorts.
  • #785
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:30pm Aug 25, 2010 5:30pm
I think that we have seen the lows for this week in the indicies. For the rest of the week I favour consolidation into the end of the month and the long weekend. The September pivot point will determine the trend from next wednesday, I think that price will slowly make it's way back towards it and then continue moving down from there in September. Target is still 9124 for the dow in September.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow.GIF Size: 11 KB
  • #786
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:33pm Aug 25, 2010 5:33pm
AU looks like a long to me today up into next weeks green highs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 18 KB
  • #787
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:36pm Aug 25, 2010 5:36pm
For the euro I took more shorts off 1.2714 last night but have closed all those shorts today at 1.2650. I am still holding the shorts from last week but I don't see it making new lows in the next few days and I am anticipating that I can probably pick up some more at 1.2700-50 over the next 3-4 sessions.
  • #788
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:06pm Aug 25, 2010 7:06pm
Amy

I've been watching your trades over the past few weeks now. I like what you're doing. Keep it up!
  • #789
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:51pm Aug 25, 2010 8:51pm
Quoting amyc
AU looks like a long to me today up into next weeks green highs.
I took longs in au off 8834, stops 8810 tp1 8897 and tp2 next week.
Price needs to have a 4hr close above 8868 to confirm the upmove.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 10 KB
  • #790
  • Aug 25, 2010 11:36pm Aug 25, 2010 11:36pm
Quoting amyc
I took longs in au off 8834, stops 8810 tp1 8897 and tp2 next week.
Price needs to have a 4hr close above 8868 to confirm the upmove.
Partial exit at 8874, I have a lot of resistance at these levels, it should move higher but there is a possible move back to 8837 first.
  • #791
  • Aug 25, 2010 11:49pm Aug 25, 2010 11:49pm
For the euro I don't believe that Thursday is the day to take more shorts, I see Thursday remaining choppy and going nowhere. I think that the green highs which are currently at at 1.2748 on Friday will provide a much better short opportunity. That is my next target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 16 KB
  • #792
  • Aug 26, 2010 5:54pm Aug 26, 2010 5:54pm
Shorting level for Friday is the green highs, 1.2776. If price moves above here then it is not bearish anymore but I am not expecting that to happen. If it hits the highs on Friday and closes below then the next move will be back to the green lows early next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 15 KB
  • #793
  • Aug 26, 2010 5:57pm Aug 26, 2010 5:57pm
For au I have closed all the longs earlier today after it did 80 pips up. Price is showing signs at the moment of moving back as far as 8780ish I will be looking for a new long position of this pair today. Not sure exactly where from yet.
  • #794
  • Aug 27, 2010 7:25pm Aug 27, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting amyc
For au I have closed all the longs earlier today after it did 80 pips up. Price is showing signs at the moment of moving back as far as 8780ish I will be looking for a new long position of this pair today. Not sure exactly where from yet.
Up move as expected for au on Friday, i didn't end up getting my ideal entry which was going to be 8838 but I did get in on the 4hr close above 8870 at 8874, I put a tp on at 8980 which got hit on Friday. I wasn't expecting to see that price until Monday.
This week should move up into 9033, from there I will be looking for a new round of shorts to take this lower during September.

This move up on Friday was a high probability move after 3 weeks of moving to the lows, once price hits the highs at 9033 I expect another 3 week move down, this will need to be confirmed by price opening under the monthly pp on Wednesday.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.GIF Size: 19 KB
  • #795
  • Aug 27, 2010 7:27pm Aug 27, 2010 7:27pm
EU hit the green highs on Friday and closed below. This should mean that the next swing is back to the green lows next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 15 KB
  • #796
  • Aug 29, 2010 6:45pm Aug 29, 2010 6:45pm
I will be watching 10215 (Mondays green highs) on the dow for taking more shorts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #797
  • Aug 29, 2010 8:09pm Aug 29, 2010 8:09pm
Quoting amyc
Up move as expected for au on Friday, i didn't end up getting my ideal entry which was going to be 8838 but I did get in on the 4hr close above 8870 at 8874, I put a tp on at 8980 which got hit on Friday. I wasn't expecting to see that price until Monday.
This week should move up into 9033, from there I will be looking for a new round of shorts to take this lower during September.

This move up on Friday was a high probability move after 3 weeks of moving to the lows, once price hits the highs at 9033 I expect another 3 week move down, this will...
My short orders on au got hit at 9030. Only problem is it missed 9033 by 2 pips, I'm not sure if it will try and go back and do that later or not. The 4hr bar has closed below 9033, if it had of touched 9033 I would say that we have a top and will now move back to 8808 but bc of no touch i can't be sure. An hourly close below 9003 will be the next move I will look for to confirm weakness.
  • #798
  • Aug 30, 2010 8:06pm Aug 30, 2010 8:06pm
EU should continue down into 1.2592 on Tuesday. Here I will close 1/4 of my position. The rest I will hold for September.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 15 KB
  • #799
  • Aug 30, 2010 8:38pm Aug 30, 2010 8:38pm
AU, will add to shorts if it tests 8989. Otherwise will just hold what I have, price should be down to 8895 on Tuesday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 18 KB
  • #800
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:39pm Aug 30, 2010 9:39pm
Quoting amyc
AU, will add to shorts if it tests 8989. Otherwise will just hold what I have, price should be down to 8895 on Tuesday.
I'm starting to think that it's setting up for a repeat of PA like the beginning of May. Bad news on Friday could be the catalyst.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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