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Nanningbob 4h trading system ver. 5.0

  • #1,041
  • Aug 24, 2010 4:31pm Aug 24, 2010 4:31pm
I've demo traded NB sytems over the last 6 months and have been making consistent profit. I've now open a live acount with Alpari (UK) with $5K, trading lot size of 0.5 (which is 50c as they are a 5D broker). I'm following the trades posted daily and the rules of the system.

But now it doesnt seem like I'm making the right decision (i thivk my mind playing games on me and my heart not taking it well) as I'm down pips as follows:
EUR/USD: -701
GBP/USD: -670
CHF/JPY: -312
Remeber this is a 5D broker. I'm thinking to change my lot size to 0.01 as i dont think I'm handling the 0.5 well even though i demo traded it.

WHAT SHOULD I DO....
LEARNING HOW TO FISH SO I CAN FISH FOREVER
  • #1,042
  • Aug 24, 2010 4:37pm Aug 24, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting Mixer
I've demo traded NB sytems over the last 6 months and have been making consistent profit. I've now open a live acount with Alpari (UK) with $5K, trading lot size of 0.5 (which is 50c as they are a 5D broker). I'm following the trades posted daily and the rules of the system.

But now it doesnt seem like I'm making the right decision (i thivk my mind playing games on me and my heart not taking it well) as I'm down pips as follows:
EUR/USD: -701
GBP/USD: -670
CHF/JPY: -312
Remeber this is a 5D broker. I'm thinking to change my lot size to 0.01 as...
Are these BUY trades ?, because if they are then you would/will get hammered for reasons I stated previously regarding the YEN etc. Dont forget that currencies are highly correlated!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From the trades you listed (assuming you are BUYING) then in effect you are selling USD and selling JPY = big mistake.

Scoobs.
  • #1,043
  • Aug 24, 2010 4:45pm Aug 24, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting scooby-doo
Are these BUY trades ?, because if they are then you would/will get hammered for reasons I stated previously regarding the YEN etc. Dont forget that currencies are highly correlated!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From the trades you listed (assuming you are BUYING) then in effect you are selling USD and selling JPY = big mistake.

Scoobs.
I'm down $1,000. They are BUYS. Should I exist.
LEARNING HOW TO FISH SO I CAN FISH FOREVER
  • #1,044
  • Aug 24, 2010 4:49pm Aug 24, 2010 4:49pm
Quoting Mixer
I'm down $1,000. They are BUYS. Should I exist.
I would wait until Bob or someone else who know's the system replies as I have not been involved in this method of trading.

But you should remember that EURUSD, GBPUSD and CHFJPY are highly correlated in one way or another because of the following...

EURJPY = EURUSD * USDJPY
GBPJPY = GBPUSD * USDJPY
CHFJPY = USDCHF * USDJPY

Scoobs.
  • #1,045
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:30pm Aug 24, 2010 5:30pm
OK finally some excitement. I see some hand wringing out there, welcome to Forex. I finally got rid of that aud/nzd trade and dumped the gbp/jpy before it got damaging. Looks like most of that move is done but it has a previous low about 200 pips 3 months ago. Gbp/jpy came to a halt at a support line so if you are still in you can expect a retrace probably. News section talks about BOJ may enter the market, all hush hush supposedly. Eur/chf actually worries me more than the jpy pairs. It is doing a slow death dance here and if it doesnt break I will eat that one too. You have a much better chance of jpy bouncing around than that dead thing. Steve's MPTM is very busy for me and I am beginning to wonder if I should just take the +40 instead of the +25. Everytime the SL moves up price heads for it. That is 120 pips I gave up. Not getting any big runs lately so ............... thinking thinking thinking............ Knocked out two ugly trades and only down -78 for the week. Seems like Tuesday and Wednesday are turning into DD reducer days. See how that all plays out. Anyway gotta go teach.
RESULTS
aud/nzd -190 +65
chf/jpy +51
eur/aud +25 +46
Eur/gbp +25
eur/jpy +25
Eur/usd +36 -67
gbp/aud +25
gbp/cad +25
gbp/jpy -346 -92 +25
gbp/usd +25
nzd/usd +25


currency pair and EA for now (you can figure out if it is a buy or sell)
aud/cad 1
aud/jpy 7
eur/JPY 3 or 7
eur/usd 3
gbp/aud 3
gbp/cad 3
gbp/JPY 7
GBP USD 1
nzd/chf 1
NZD/JPY 1
NZD/USD 1
usd/chf 1
STILL IN
aud/cad -31
aud/chf -30
aud/jpy -136 -60 #7 EA on now #2 snuck in a trade and then dropped.
aud/usd -35
cad/chf -217 -137 have #3 ea on now had a BE on this one but missed it. DANG try again.
cad/jpy -271 -174 -23
eur/chf L1 -402 L2 -197 L3 #5 EA is on this one
eur/jpy -300 +8
gbp/cad -25
gbp/chf -100
gbp/jpy -85 Took my L1 loss and restarted the series of trades. My spacing wasnt right so got out and started over.
nzd/chf +9
nzd/jpy -17
nzd/usd -214 -176 +17
usd/cad -130 -28
usd/jpy -109 #2 EA on

TOTALS
total for day - 230
 for the week - 78
 for the month + 3495
 Carry over - 2871

I will divide currency pairs into four major groups based on their percentage of times they will move over 300 pips in one week. Here are the 4 groups:

1.VERY VOLATILE GROUP: THEY WILL MOVE OVER 300 PIPS IN ONE WEEK MORE THAN 75% OF THE TIME.
a. GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY
b. This group if you trade them you will want to use a reentery of 250 pips plus. This will be explained later in the 2.4.2 recovery system.
2.VOLATILE GROUP: THEY WILL MOVE OVER 300 PIPS IN ONE WEEK MORE THAN 50% OF THE TIME
a.GBP/CHF, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY
b. This group if you trade them you will want to use a reentery of 200 pips.
3.MEDIUM VOLATILE GROUP: THEY WILL MOVE OVER 300 PIPS IN ONE WEEK MORE THAN 25% OF THE TIME.
a. NZD/JPY, AUD/CHF, AUD/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, NZD/CHF, CAD/CHF,
b. This group if you trade them you will want to use a reentry of 150-200 pips.
4. LOW VOLATILITY GROUP: THEY WILL MOVE OVER 300 PIPS IN ONE WEEK LESS THAN 25% OF THE TIME.
a. AUD/NZD, NZD/USD, CHF/JPY, AUD/CAD, USD/CAD, NZD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP
b.This group if you trade them you will want to use a reentry of 150
  • #1,046
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:33pm Aug 24, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting Mixer
I've demo traded NB sytems over the last 6 months and have been making consistent profit. I've now open a live acount with Alpari (UK) with $5K, trading lot size of 0.5 (which is 50c as they are a 5D broker). I'm following the trades posted daily and the rules of the system.

But now it doesnt seem like I'm making the right decision (i thivk my mind playing games on me and my heart not taking it well) as I'm down pips as follows:
EUR/USD: -701
GBP/USD: -670
CHF/JPY: -312
Remeber this is a 5D broker. I'm thinking to change my lot size to 0.01 as...
He is not down -701 pips he has a 5 digit account he is only down 70 pips. Come on guys you ever go to math class. Adding digits doesn't add pips. That is 70.1 and 67.0 and 31.2 sheeeesh how many times do we have to mention this.
  • #1,047
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:36pm Aug 24, 2010 5:36pm
Quoting nanningbob
He is not down -701 pips he has a 5 digit account he is only down 70 pips. Come on guys you ever go to math class. Adding digits doesn't add pips. That is 70.1 and 67.0 and 31.2 sheeeesh how many times do we have to mention this.
Yeah plus his lotsize is too high for a 5K account trading multiple pairs and it looks to me like he is using 500:1 leverage.

Scoobs.
  • #1,048
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:40pm Aug 24, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting scooby-doo
I would wait until Bob or someone else who know's the system replies as I have not been involved in this method of trading.

But you should remember that EURUSD, GBPUSD and CHFJPY are highly correlated in one way or another because of the following...

EURJPY = EURUSD * USDJPY
GBPJPY = GBPUSD * USDJPY
CHFJPY = USDCHF * USDJPY

Scoobs.
Sorry, but I 100% totally disagree with this. Forex is about trade between currencies and countries. A person who does business between europe and japan has no correlation between a person who does business between USA and Japan. I had this argument with guys over the aud/nzd pair and using nzd/usd and aud/usd instead. There is no relationship with business trading between Australia and New Zealand and businesses trading between USA with NZ or Australia. The currency movements are not the same. Actual price action is not the same. The Chf/jpy moves independantly from the usd/chf and the usd/jpy. They have periods of correlation at times but often diverge based on business and govt transactions. Forex is not a math problem it is business transactions.
  • #1,049
  • Edited 6:16pm Aug 24, 2010 6:10pm | Edited 6:16pm
Quoting Mixer
I'm down $1,000. They are BUYS. Should I exist.
I am sorry you are down 20%, I think you have made some mistakes (we all mistakes and should learn from them), because I started trading version5 on the 18th of July, a/c balance of $2,400 , lot size of 10 cents. After 7 weeks and quite a few silly mistakes on the way, a/c balance is $3,130 with open trades balace of -$430. Nobody likes losing money but this is the name of the game, win some, lose some.

we all have different options, close all, close some, carry on with the 2-4-2 with the risks and rewards it entails or if you have a non US a/c you can hedge some or all of the losing trades and decide what to do later when things are more clear. It can be a combination of all of the above. Ultimately, it is our a/c and it is our decision what we do. BOB, SCOOBS, MACMAN will not and can not make that decision for us. You have seen what Scoobs has said. It seems even BOJ has not decided what to do as yet!!!

Kind Regards
P.S. Scoobs, thanks for your thoughts, you are right, I should not have asked such a question in this thread. I asked because quite a few of us have quite a few open XXXJPY trades for the benefit of myself and my fellow traders.

BOB please accept my apologies.

P.P.S. Maybe we should all send telepathic messages to BOJ: "SELL YEN" "SELL YEN" "SELL YEN", It may work.
  • #1,050
  • Aug 24, 2010 6:12pm Aug 24, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting Mixer
WHAT SHOULD I DO....
Stop trading until you understand a little better what you are trying to do. You are well on your way to blowing your account, given your total lack of understanding of leverage.

Alpari trumpet their 'variable leverage of up to 1:500' as though it were a good thing. I also have an Alpari account. Since bringing in their 'variable leverage of up to 1:500, I have never seen their leverage at less than this.

So, at 1:500, profits mount at satisfying speed. Losses mount at terrifying speed. The panic induced in the breast of newcomers who have started accounts with a far greater deposit than they should have done, is exactly what these particular brokers are looking for (and here I substitute 'brokers' for my more usual term in order to avoid being sued). Said newcomers will panic, and close their trades far too early. Or they will close them far too late, and take a margin call.

So, stop live trading immediately. Open a fresh demo with the kind of (tiny) deposit you can afford to lose live, and trade that for a few months until you have made some real demo profits based on a realistic deposit that you can actually stand trading with.

This is a process you have to go through. Guess how I know?

If you lack BOS, then don't trade forex.

  • #1,051
  • Aug 24, 2010 6:14pm Aug 24, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting scooby-doo
Yeah plus his lotsize is too high for a 5K account trading multiple pairs and it looks to me like he is using 500:1 leverage.

Scoobs.
Not a total dimwit, are you?
  • #1,052
  • Aug 24, 2010 6:16pm Aug 24, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting scooby-doo
Yeah plus his lotsize is too high for a 5K account trading multiple pairs and it looks to me like he is using 500:1 leverage.

Scoobs.
Problem is guys are trading and they dont even know what they are trading. What ever happened to take 500 bucks trading pennies and learning the business.
  • #1,053
  • Aug 24, 2010 6:23pm Aug 24, 2010 6:23pm
Quoting Mixer
I've demo traded NB sytems over the last 6 months and have been making consistent profit. I've now open a live acount with Alpari (UK) with $5K, trading lot size of 0.5 (which is 50c as they are a 5D broker). I'm following the trades posted daily and the rules of the system.

But now it doesnt seem like I'm making the right decision (i thivk my mind playing games on me and my heart not taking it well) as I'm down pips as follows:
EUR/USD: -701
GBP/USD: -670
CHF/JPY: -312
Remeber this is a 5D broker. I'm thinking to change my lot size to 0.01 as...
if you have a 5K account then makesure your leverage is no higher than 100:1 and divide the account by 10000 units. This will give you 0.50. Now divide this by the maximum number of pairs you want open at any one time. So, if the maximum is 10 then your lotsize for each would be 0.05.

Scoobs.
  • #1,054
  • Edited 6:39pm Aug 24, 2010 6:27pm | Edited 6:39pm
Quoting nanningbob
Sorry, but I 100% totally disagree with this. Forex is about trade between currencies and countries. A person who does business between europe and japan has no correlation between a person who does business between USA and Japan. I had this argument with guys over the aud/nzd pair and using nzd/usd and aud/usd instead. There is no relationship with business trading between Australia and New Zealand and businesses trading between USA with NZ or Australia. The currency movements are not the same....
Sorry Bob to put my 5 cents... but here Scoobs is right.
In this case Forex is pure math.

Example right now:

GBPUSD = 1.54 approximately
USDJPY = 84 approximately

1.54 x 84 = 129.4 approximately

And that's the price of GBPJPY.

These calculations are valid for all pairs derived from the 6 majors... pure math.
And that's the reason for the high volatility of the guppy as well.
If the cable moves because of whatsoever happening in UK, then the GBPJPY movement is amplified by the multiplication.

And it doesn't matter who makes business with whom... if UK makes business with US then by nature of things the GBPJPY is affected proportionally.
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #1,055
  • Aug 24, 2010 6:28pm Aug 24, 2010 6:28pm
The problem is that we post fabulous results and everyone thinks they can emulate it right of the bat. Not their fault, it's human nature to want the same results.

Greed kicks in when you see Bob post "for the month + 3495", and the young genius traders does a very simple multiplication ....hmmmm 3000 pips by 1USD lots and then jumps right in.

I don't think that will ever stop. However if Mixer takes the advice, it's lesson learnt that only cost $1,000.00. Off course the advice was free upfront..but ..sh!t happens.
  • #1,056
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:06pm Aug 24, 2010 7:06pm
Quoting DXTrade
Sorry Bob to put my 5 cents... but here Scoobs is right.
In this case Forex is pure math.

Example right now:

GBPUSD = 1.54...
I have to teach all day but itis not and I can defeat the argument very easily. It is not a math problem.
  • #1,057
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:20pm Aug 24, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting nanningbob
I have to teach all day but itis not and I can defeat the argument very easily. It is not a math problem.
LOL... I teach diving all day today... so not really time as well.

But I would be surprised if you can find an example of a secondary pair where the multiplication of the majors doesn't work.

Other example: EURUSD - USDCHF
These pairs are moving in a pretty precise inverted direction.
That's why the multiplication gives a similar result at all times, and that's why the EURCHF nearly ever moves far.

But if you have an example... I'm open to learn

Don't want to enter in an argument here... sorry
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #1,058
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:21pm Aug 24, 2010 7:21pm
Quoting nanningbob
I have to teach all day but itis not and I can defeat the argument very easily. It is not a math problem.
Bob,

I fully agree that it is not a math problem.

What I was trying to explain was that there are underlying funamental reasons why currencies move. They may not move in the same direction or to the same degree.

Example:

Interest rate change affecting Japan or JPY. This will have an affect on all XXXJPY pairs regardless of the base currency involved like GBP or CHF etc. Likewise this would also affect USD in relation to GBPJPY and GBPUSD because of their relationship. That doesnt mean that GBPJPY and GBPUSD will move in the same direction or to the same degree but there is an affect.

Anyway, I am not here to agree or disagree with what basically is a good system you have developed over time.

Apart from the leverage and lotsize the said person used there were reasons why he found himeself into DD initiating BUY trades on those 3 trades in question.

Scoobs.
  • #1,059
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:26pm Aug 24, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting nanningbob
I have to teach all day but itis not and I can defeat the argument very easily. It is not a math problem.
BOB,

This is very exciting argument. The text books and manuals support Scoobs and DXTrade`s position, however, knowing your sound reasoning and logic I can not wait to see your rationale. Some people may think this is not relevant, but I think for me and people like I it is educational and important for our development as student traders.

Kind regards
P.S. By "argument" I mean a respectful discussion of opposite views in an academic sense which can be very constructive.
  • #1,060
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:01pm Aug 24, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
Not a total dimwit, are you?

Are you saying that Alpari wont allow me to go to a lower leverage?

When i just opened the account, they told me the leverage was 1:500 and the first thing i did before trading was to change the leverage to 1:100.
LEARNING HOW TO FISH SO I CAN FISH FOREVER
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