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James16+Rayanmcd(Jan kone) and ME 7 replies

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Jankone M5 thread

  • #3,881
  • Aug 17, 2010 12:51pm Aug 17, 2010 12:51pm
Hello Friends,

I have had difficulty to determine when the trend will reverse. How to analyze the moment? Another question is about TP set up. I use TF 15 min and 1H.

Thank you.
If I Change, the whole World changes!
  • #3,882
  • Aug 17, 2010 4:07pm Aug 17, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting Forex Girl
Hello Friends,

I have had difficulty to determine when the trend will reverse. How to analyze the moment? Another question is about TP set up. I use TF 15 min and 1H.

Thank you.
Hi Forex Girl,

A trend is commonly defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows for a downtrend. So if you're in an uptrend and price fails to make a new higher high, it's time to check that your stop is not too far behind. Same goes for downtrends. If price fails to make a new lower low, check your stop.

You can also look for clues on the RSI. If it's showing a divergence, be careful. However, not every divergence will necessarily lead to an actual reversal of price, but it's just another thing to monitor when you're in a trade. If price action and RSI give a signal you would otherwise take in the opposite direction of the trade you're currently in, it might also be a good time to take your profit and run.

As for TPs, that's such a personal thing. One person could use a fixed number of pips, another could be using a trailing stop, a third person might prefer taking partial profit at a certain level and let the rest run, etc.

Hope this helps a little.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #3,883
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:53am Aug 18, 2010 7:53am
Quoting Dhb
Hi Forex Girl,

A trend is commonly defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows for a downtrend. So if you're in an uptrend and price fails to make a new higher high, it's time to check that your stop is not too far behind. Same goes for downtrends. If price fails to make a new lower low, check your stop.

You can also look for clues on the RSI. If it's showing a divergence, be careful. However, not every divergence will necessarily lead to an actual reversal of price, but it's just another...
Thank you, Dhb. It was very useful.
If I Change, the whole World changes!
  • #3,884
  • Aug 18, 2010 8:26am Aug 18, 2010 8:26am
Quoting Jankone
Because I'm 100% sure about this, great setups usually hit my PT 1-2-3 m5 bars later, if not, usually I kill the trade.
Be sure, I dont trade too much, sometimes i have...
HI JANKONE,

WHEN YOU SAY THAT USUALLY GREAT SETUPS HIT YOUR TP 1-2-3 M5 BARS LATER , IF NOT, YOU KILL THE TRADE DO YOU MEAN CANDLES LATER? I USE TF 15 MIN, HOW MANY BARS DO I WAIT?

THANK YOU.


http://www.google.com.br/images/cleardot.gifSugira uma tradução melhor

If I Change, the whole World changes!
  • #3,885
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:50pm Aug 18, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting Dhb
When taking trend trades, it's more important that you see a rejection of the mid-BB area than seeing perfectly shaped price action (PA) imho. Of course, perfectly shaped PA is a bonus, but the trend is your "get out of jail free"-card, so to speak. Lots of crappy pins work surprisingly well when taken with the trend.

This "rejection PA" could be in the form of one or more tails (pins), could be in the form of two opposite momentum candles (2-bar pin, see second to last pullback I indicated), or some other PA, like an outside/engulfing...
these are the best words I've read here lately, You seem to know what your talking about even more than some people with 100+Vouches.
please keep'em coming and some charts wouldn't hurt either!!!
  • #3,886
  • Aug 18, 2010 3:54pm Aug 18, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting Dhb
When taking trend trades, it's more important that you see a rejection of the mid-BB area than seeing perfectly shaped price action (PA) imho. Of course, perfectly shaped PA is a bonus, but the trend is your "get out of jail free"-card, so to speak. Lots of crappy pins work surprisingly well when taken with the trend.

This "rejection PA" could be in the form of one or more tails (pins), could be in the form of two opposite momentum candles (2-bar pin, see second to last pullback I indicated), or some other PA, like an outside/engulfing...
Hello Dhb,

This detail which you said is very important. Could You show in a chart? I have a little difficulty with the English language. I'm sorry.

Thanks for your support!
If I Change, the whole World changes!
  • #3,887
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:02pm Aug 18, 2010 5:02pm
Okay, so here are two charts of trades I took last week. Strictly, they're not exactly the type of trades that are usually discussed in this thread, since I did not enter from the mid-BB. Both were in fact rejections from the upper BB and 50 SMA, but, and this is very important, they were in line with the prevailing trend, so there was an above average chance of success.

The euroswissy trade I took for a 2:1 R:R fixed TP, which coincided with the lower BB more or less. The price action that made me go short was a bullish bar, followed by an inside bar, followed by a bearish outside bar. There was rejection of the upper-BB and 50 SMA in an obvious downtrend. The PA showed the push up was running out of steam. Pulled the trigger.

My second trade is a fiber trade, also taken last week, which resulted in a big runner of a bit over 16 : 1 R:R. I let this one run and it paid off handsomely. Here too the PA that made me pull the trigger was located at the upper BB and 50 SMA, showing rejection of the push up by the formation of a 2-bar pin, or a strong bullish candle immediately followed by a strong bearish candle. A 10 minute pin, so to speak. That was the trigger for me to go short.

As per Phillip Nel's M5 method (complements Ryanmcd/Jankone well, recommended reading material imho),I moved my stop to B/E after being 6 or so pips in profit, and let the market do the rest (also did this during the euroswissy trade btw). Pretty soon I could lock in a 2:1 R:R. After having done that, I went on to do something else. There was a lot of bearish momentum going on at the time, and I was either going to catch a big runner, or get stopped out at 2:1. Win-win either way.

For both trades, initially I was looking to see price break the mid-BB. If it hadn't done so, it might have been the start of an upward correction. As you all probably know, trending price almost always consists of alternate bounces off of the outer BB and the mid-BB, so a bounce off the mid-BB would have been bad news, and would have made me move my stop to B/E immediately if I hadn't done so already at that point. When price broke the mid-BB on both occasions, the next target was going to be the lower BB. In the case of euroswissy, I closed the trade, since my TP was reached. The fiber trade broke south hard, so I could lock in my profit and go do something else.

For the record, I'm still doing this stuff on demo. Still honing my skills before going live, which will be when I've doubled my demo account, using 1% risk per trade. These two trades have also been my most recent trades.

I apologize for the long rant, but hopefully explaining my reasoning will help some of you.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euroswissy.gif Size: 55 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber.gif Size: 68 KB
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #3,888
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:08pm Aug 18, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting judith
these are the best words I've read here lately, You seem to know what your talking about even more than some people with 100+Vouches.
please keep'em coming and some charts wouldn't hurt either!!!
A lot of this wisdom can be extracted from reading all of Ryanmcd's posts. I must have read them at least 5 times now, and I still frequently check his charts. Knowing about price action, or what the charts tell you, helps as well. I've also read more than 2.5k pages of J16's thread, among others. Takes a bit of work, but definitely worth it, I can assure you.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #3,889
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:38pm Aug 18, 2010 7:38pm
Quoting Dhb
When taking trend trades, it's more important that you see a rejection of the mid-BB area than seeing perfectly shaped price action (PA) imho. Of course, perfectly shaped PA is a bonus, but the trend is your "get out of jail free"-card, so to speak. Lots of crappy pins work surprisingly well when taken with the trend.

This "rejection PA" could be in the form of one or more tails (pins), could be in the form of two opposite momentum candles (2-bar pin, see second to last pullback I indicated), or some other PA, like an outside/engulfing...
thanks for sharing
  • #3,890
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:03am Aug 19, 2010 10:03am
I trust the chart speaks for itself...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: huh, is that really all there is to it.gif Size: 76 KB
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #3,891
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:44pm Aug 19, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting Dhb
I trust the chart speaks for itself...

Attachment
First, let me say this thread is the best that I´ve studied, despite being newbie in forex (2 years).
Dhb, you´ve pointed out very important details. I am very grateful!
I would like to know if the first chart below shows the downtrend rejection PA from the bottom of BB and SMA50, in addition to engulfing/bearish outside pattern. Am I right? I ´m sorry about the English. The second chart it is yours....
I´m so glad to learn with you guys...
Thank you so much!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rejection eu.gif Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Rejection Dhb.gif Size: 77 KB
If I Change, the whole World changes!
  • #3,892
  • Aug 19, 2010 4:25pm Aug 19, 2010 4:25pm
Yes ma'am, price did not make a new lower low, but a double bottom instead, which you correctly interpreted as the end of the downtrend. The bullish engulfing candle was another clue.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #3,893
  • Aug 19, 2010 5:57pm Aug 19, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting Dhb
Yes ma'am, price did not make a new lower low, but a double bottom instead, which you correctly interpreted as the end of the downtrend. The bullish engulfing candle was another clue.
OK....Thank you.
If I Change, the whole World changes!
  • #3,894
  • Aug 20, 2010 6:56pm Aug 20, 2010 6:56pm
Hello Friends,

I'm reading the RYANMCD 5 min TF material and I´d like to know if my interpretations in the chart below are corrects.

Have a nice weekend!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trades aussie.gif Size: 34 KB
If I Change, the whole World changes!
  • #3,895
  • Aug 21, 2010 6:25am Aug 21, 2010 6:25am
Wonderful,
this is more advanced Ryan's style i guess, good read.,
(and some more setups are there)

Quoting Dhb
I trust the chart speaks for itself...

Attachment
  • #3,896
  • Aug 21, 2010 8:27am Aug 21, 2010 8:27am
Quoting Jankone
Wonderful,
this is more advanced Ryan's style i guess, good read.,
(and some more setups are there)
Hi Jankone,

So, am I right? My charts setup above your quote is ok??
I´m really dedicated to study, then I´d appreciate feedback from you.
Thank you
If I Change, the whole World changes!
  • #3,897
  • Aug 21, 2010 10:38am Aug 21, 2010 10:38am
Quoting Forex Girl
Hi Jankone,

So, am I right? My charts setup above your quote is ok??
I´m really dedicated to study, then I´d appreciate feedback from you.
Thank you
fx Girl I believe your first arrow would be not A++, pa looks quite choppy

rest are good, especially the screamer near the top shouting continuation!!
  • #3,898
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:40am Aug 24, 2010 8:40am
just 1st trade in 2 weeks .........Chart..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 24 aug pb at uc sell.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 24 aug pb at uc sell tp hit.gif Size: 28 KB
FxHome
  • #3,899
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:57am Aug 24, 2010 8:57am
Quoting AnimalHungry
Since this is a very visual method, I wanted to look at all the charts posted here again, and I thought it would be a useful reference source to have them all in one place.

So, in case anyone's interested, I've put all of Ryan's and Jankone's charts, together with some charts commented on/blessed by Jankone, Supreme and other seniors, into a Word doc here:

http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=d...4e75f6e8ebb871

Enjoy!

Simon
I've realized that the download link I posted with a summary of the pertinent charts from the early part of this thread has died. I've uploaded the summary doc again to a different site that promises indefinite hosting:

http://www.filedropper.com/jankonechartsummaryto7-23-09

Although I don't follow this thread anymore (simply because my schedule doesn't permit short term trading) please feel free to drop me a PM if you have any trouble downloading the file.

Many pips
Simon
  • #3,900
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:36pm Aug 24, 2010 5:36pm
Great summary, Simon. Thanks a lot for (re-)sharing!

Also, Mediafire allows you to host files indefinitely as well, and they don't have any traffic restrictions. It's free btw.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
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