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vsa with Malcolm

  • #2,861
  • Aug 23, 2010 5:22pm Aug 23, 2010 5:22pm
this 60 min eu is still bothering me .. may be overthinking it

but we have seen tons buyers in this 1.2660 area

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,862
  • Aug 23, 2010 5:30pm Aug 23, 2010 5:30pm
and i would be a very happy guy (money wise, of course).

my goal is only 20 pip a day. every freaking day! my problem i am still at the stage of 300 pips one day, account blown the other day.

but it's slowly going away. much less trades per day. hanging on to the good entries... still have to work on the cut the losses short. biggest challenge right now.

one thing i learnt from you yet u didn't teach me that: once you start to get very good entry rate, you get more confident that u can loose this trade because u are pretty sure u will have another good entry next. and if it's not the next, then the other one for sure. and this makes accepting losses much easier.
when u are not sure u can get into another good entry u don't accept that u lost that one (that many times was even in profit before it was at loss).

this is just one of the many things i discovered based on your teachings, that i thank.

(yet another good entry short on the eu coming up)

Quoting malcolmb14
do not overthink correlations..sometimes they work sometime they do not.

What happens if tomorrow housing data is bad ? usd may get weaker and eu flys up yet stock market can still head down , the correlation we saw today could be decoupled tomorrow.

trade the chart ...choose one or 2 pair. I saw some guy following 10 pair... awesome but thing with that is you lose focus and miss all the moves.

eu or gu are my weapons of choice , along with ES

Typically I will follow one at once..... why trade eu and gu .... if you are usd bearish and...
dreams do come true.
  • #2,863
  • Aug 23, 2010 5:35pm Aug 23, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting Beljevina
Something really strange is up with the markets all day, and also in this least liquid time ... seems no interest all around.

On UJ, I'm not seeing any demand - relative nor certainly compared to previous dips. eSignal would though have the best aggregated volume view, esp. during these non-trading hours when most brokers see the least amount of activity. (my normally good feed here is CitiBank as LP.) I would think pros are expecting lower prices.

wave 3 is forming on mannr different things .... this week is a key week , do not know why I just feel this .

I am heaviliy short in the markets and hope i do not get my arse handed to me ...lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,864
  • Aug 23, 2010 5:37pm Aug 23, 2010 5:37pm
eu moves this time of day .... are either

1) traps
2) complete market melt downs

do you not think it is odd eu decides to break days low this time of day .... not that i mind i have been in a sell since 1.2880.

Quoting wannaberich
and i would be a very happy guy (money wise, of course).

my goal is only 20 pip a day. every freaking day! my problem i am still at the stage of 300 pips one day, account blown the other day.

but it's slowly going away. much less trades per day. hanging on to the good entries... still have to work on the cut the losses short. biggest challenge right now.

one thing i learnt from you yet u didn't teach me that: once you start to get very good entry rate, you get more confident that u can loose this trade because u are pretty sure u will have...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,865
  • Aug 23, 2010 5:46pm Aug 23, 2010 5:46pm
That sell on the eu was defo nice one mal, i watched it play out as the market was very choppy!

--------

Thanks for the reply mal, im just reading that as no result as effort to rise/supply coming in!
Be interesting to see what tokyo session does on the 60 min, to be short im looking for a sign of weakness, possibly a ND under the SV.

Anyways off to bed.....up nice and early! lol
  • #2,866
  • Aug 23, 2010 5:47pm Aug 23, 2010 5:47pm
it's that "too good to be true" feelling.

and i do believe number 2. maybe wishfull thinking here but since last week eu has done nothing than fall and flag, fall and flag. as kinds of flags like midle last week's one. or today's. or this end of the day one from 660.

maybe it is too good to be true. i am not over elaboratoring and try to trade what i see.

things never completely add up: last week we had a 320 pip candle (got really screwed up with the "can't go any lower" feeling. fortunatly MM was good to minimize the damage). today we have a 2 thirds candle. so maybe tomorrow we have a 4 thirds candle. mr. market can everything.

about that hourly stopping vol, i don't see that one so weird. if u slice it down to 15m it's just another mark down... i think...

right now if you draw a trend line on the last 2 lows you'll see that we tried to break it and coouldn't. seems like we will be closing above it. interesting volume defending the trendline. also we are at 161.8 fibo expansion hit to the pip and reacted up. so everything looks normal.

now let's see if we break...

Quoting malcolmb14
eu moves this time of day .... are either

1) traps
2) complete market melt downs

do you not think it is odd eu decides to break days low this time of day .... not that i mind i have been in a sell since 1.2880.
dreams do come true.
  • #2,867
  • Aug 23, 2010 7:21pm Aug 23, 2010 7:21pm
put it this way if we are in start of wave 3 in market and 950 es is hit ... eu could be 1200 pip wave off 1.2900

Quoting wannaberich
it's that "too good to be true" feelling.

and i do believe number 2. maybe wishfull thinking here but since last week eu has done nothing than fall and flag, fall and flag. as kinds of flags like midle last week's one. or today's. or this end of the day one from 660.

maybe it is too good to be true. i am not over elaboratoring and try to trade what i see.

things never completely add up: last week we had a 320 pip candle (got really screwed up with the "can't go any lower" feeling. fortunatly MM was good to minimize the damage). today...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,868
  • Aug 24, 2010 2:21am Aug 24, 2010 2:21am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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would i be correct in saying there was a buying climax that took price to 1.2654 before continuation of move down?
Mind over matter..I don't mind and you don't matter.
  • #2,869
  • Edited 3:17am Aug 24, 2010 3:04am | Edited 3:17am
this could be a big level on usd/jpy

added to my long at 84.50 wide stop though, it might still go to 83.8

here is why


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Mind over matter..I don't mind and you don't matter.
  • #2,870
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:20am Aug 24, 2010 3:20am
you didnot wait 4 low vol test?

Quoting JuliusCeasar
this could be a big level on usd/jpy

added to my long at 84.50 wide stop though, it might still go to 83.8

here is why


Attachment
  • #2,871
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:39am Aug 24, 2010 3:39am
Again, annoying price action. I took a whopping 1 pip profit from EU. There is still some buying going on, but fails to close above the "selling" (down) bar. Too messy for me to feel comfortable. We literally have down, up, down, up and so on 1 hour bars. I think I'll wait for US stocks to open. Maybe then things will be clearer.

GU is falling very slowly and didn't see any trades there. Some stopping volume now though on 1 hour. Next bar so far is up.

JPY pairs seem best. Went short GBP/JPY without even looking. 2 bar reversal going on right now, but there is still no close above the down bar on 15 min.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,872
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:44am Aug 24, 2010 3:44am
Quoting wajid
you didnot wait 4 low vol test?

I'm still learning the vsa ropes :nerd:

how does this look?

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Mind over matter..I don't mind and you don't matter.
  • #2,873
  • Aug 24, 2010 4:32am Aug 24, 2010 4:32am
low vol test at 1.5400
Attached Image
  • #2,874
  • Edited 7:23am Aug 24, 2010 6:31am | Edited 7:23am
f451

That is a great indicator what you have made.
Could you modify that it so, that you can choose, what signals you want to see, and maybe if you could add bottom and top reversals.

Thanks.

Edit: I see, you had that 2 bar reversal there, so we can forget that. But I want to choose what signals I want to see, so if you can modify that, it would be great.

Edit 2: Ok, I could modify from code // those that I dont want to see.
  • #2,875
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:09am Aug 24, 2010 7:09am
I learned a valuable lesson that I thought I would share with everyone.

I have been adding to my short position on eurusd for about a week and a half, and I was very proud of myself for letting my profits run.

Then yesterday I saw some buying at the end of the day and closed my position. I check my charts this morning and price quickly dropped 100 pips right after I closed.

I think the lesson I would like to remember from this is:

When you are in a long term trade, don't panic at every bit of buying at the end of the day. What I saw was most likely profit taking, and instead of closing all of my positions I maybe could have closed a portion of them.
  • #2,876
  • Edited 7:30am Aug 24, 2010 7:18am | Edited 7:30am
To the untrained eye, each time price dips down into the POC it seems like there is buying; lots of volume and price pops up. This is the first chart, which is gbpusd 5m.

The next chart is gbpusd daily. I've placed a horizontal line on today's POC to see what the level looks like on a longer term chart, it is marked in green.

Does this look like accumulation before the news in 10 mins?

Edit:

...Canadian news...
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  • #2,877
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:56am Aug 24, 2010 7:56am
gu double bottom. at 1.5370 seems high buying.
Attached Image
  • #2,878
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:02am Aug 24, 2010 8:02am
Quoting wajid
gu double bottom. at 1.5370 seems high buying.
That would be nice, I'm long from 1.5383. Just a micro lot because I'm VSA-clueless. SL 35 pips.
  • #2,879
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:04am Aug 24, 2010 8:04am
GU double bottom ll be confirmed only after price hold above 1.5423, don't rush in counter trend trades, especially before news.
  • #2,880
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:09am Aug 24, 2010 8:09am
Quoting f451
Previous version had a bug which would delete objects from your chart on switch of timeframes et al. Now fixed.

Intel,

This one won't delete any other objects you've attached to your chart. (Unless you name them something starting with "[VSA]")

regards
f451
Thank you. Much easier to see big picture.
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