vsa with Malcolm

ditto that

Its too early to think EU is showing weakness, however, it the highlighted 5M bars were combined into 10M bars, then they would show weakness, I think.

very interesting statement .... dig a little deeper ...

8 banks went down last week .. 2nd highest in a week aTHIS DECADE . If banks are making so much money why have we had 120 fail this year , liekly more than 140 by end of year , which takes us higher than last years

2010 , 2011 is the year when fixed rate mortgages are up for renewal .. a ton of them .... they will not be able to get as good a rate as they have in the past.

add to this 100,000 actual foreclosures per month , highest was in may of this year

read this ....this is actual facts that i have also researched and is why i have not ventured into the US to buy 20 or so properties for rentals...

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...l-estate-crash

of interest to me was ...I have seen this else where
#2) Foreclosures continue to set all-time records. In fact, the number of home foreclosures set a record for the second consecutive month in May. Not only that, but the number of newly initiated foreclosures rose 18.6 percent to 370,856 in the first quarter of 2010. A rising tide of foreclosures means that there is going to be a growing inventory of foreclosed homes on the market. As of March, U.S. banks had an inventory of approximately 1.1 million foreclosed homes, which was up 20 percent from a year ago. There is no indication that the number of foreclosed homes that need to be sold is going to decrease any time soon. This is going to have a depressing effect on U.S. home prices.


commercial real estate .... well
'The Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index measured a 4.0% price decline in June. This is the first monthly decline since March, and the third monthly price decline in 2010'

jobs ... just to keep up with population growth they need to create 150 k jobs a month

'Finally, it is important to note that in order for the employment situation to cease being a drag on the economy, merely breaking even on payrolls from month to month is not enough. Most estimates indicate that 100,000 – 125,000 new jobs need to be created each month just to accommodate the demographics of a growing labor force '

add to this that corporations are not spending , not expanding and you have stagnation ....

so not major catalyst .... think again ... this stuff has been underlying and has not gone away . The fed threw 700 billion at the economy , that they say has been repaid , however hold on freddie and fannie are going to cost US tax payers about 400 billion by the time it is all said and done and there is actually 5 trillion in liabilities that the fed has to deal with somehow.

am i bearish es .... you bet I am .... I only sell rallies when i see no demands etc on the daily for stocks and have had a pretty nice year to date doing just this .

'As of March, U.S. banks had an inventory of approximately 1.1 million foreclosed homes, which was up 20 percent from a year ago. There is no indication that the number of foreclosed homes that need to be sold is going to decrease any time soon. '

mark to market being abolished in 2008 says that banks have note reported the loss on the 1.1 mill in inventory they are holding ....

assume that each of those 1.1 million houses has a 100 k loss to the bank that has yet to be reported ...

that is : 100,000,000,000.00

so many zeros I got confused ... but isn't that 100 billion ????? and it is only going to get worse , and my 100 k per loan is conservative i bet

so armed with this how do i use it ...

JPM .. guess what puts I bought that are up 240%

bank of america playing the very wonderful 70 to 62 channel using options drops are 4 weeks and about $8 right now , done that 4 times this year

cat daily will be looking for further signs of weakness

sonofin .. looking for about 100 % return on oct 47 puts on this one for the tax free savings account ... best way to play options

I think there was a show of strength Test for Supply followed by a No Supply bar on the 15M EU. Then after an up move a bit of Absorption volume followed as shown by a higher volume squat hanging man bar. Did I read these bars correctly?

I use cumulative delta bars from marketdelta.com for my futures trading and I do not use footprint charts. It is the use of tick volume in the forex markets that I have no experience with but trying to learn if there is much value in that information. I have built several bid/ask ratio tools for forex using uptick/downtick data that seem very useful so far, but I am doing more research into additional tick volume possibilities at this time.

Yes I am familiar with vsa, but for futures I have found cumulative delta volume data very actionable for my trade entries. This forex tick volume though is a whole new game for me.

Good. Then try blindly using vsa on the forex market and just forget that the volumes are made differently. It works.

Good day to you mal,
here is my analysis of eu,, been updating the post for a while.. have a look if you want..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2894

regards

if you know vsa it will only take you a couple hours to see that it works

Hey Malcom,

Out of curiosity, what broker do you use / recommend for non-FX trading?

Cheers,
Alex

Sure, but would Tom Williams concur for the forex market with tick volume? LOL!

In MM he does say that tick volume is valid.

EU-M15
Last 100 bars, accumalation or re-distribution?

Yeah your right that is a great way of playing it. I am waiting for the close on some stocks today I may trade, ill post the charts later tonight.