Rufus

EU Planning

The EU has broken through a strong support level. The next is 180 pips lower. After that 270 more to the next.

Swing positions will be in the direction of Daily and 4h trends. Intraday in direction of hourly.

Rufus

Now for the GU.

I am having a hard time getting a grip on this one. We have been in such an extended period of consolidation that I think we need some sort of breakout to make some sort of plan. Normally The EU and GU move somewhat together, with the EU dropping I think it has been dragging the GU with it. Take a look at the EURGBP chart. Usually for this to drop significantly you need the EU to fall and GU to climb.

So for now I am leaning toward longs on the GU for the long term. As for shorter time frame we need some breakout with a good move to get a direction established.

Rufus

UJ planning

The charts are telling the story here.
We could be in a consolidation area at the bottom of a trend. It did retrace to a bottoming pattern fib level. But I will still be cautious of longs and shorts because this is a tight range right now.

As it sits now I will be treating this as range bound until proven otherwise.

I just came accross some interesting things about confidence. Two types, both need to mesh together for a trade. Anyway when I get this stuff boiled down in my head I will start posting my findings. It electrified me I am sure it could help others.

Rufus

Can't wait to check it out.

Kurt

Hey Rufus,

Can you elaborate a little more on your Tokyo High Low method?

Kurt

I will do the best I can here.

This was a position I took on August 2.

I make a square that starts with the opening of Tokyo and ends with the opening of Frankfurt. I do not include the Frankfurt candle. The square includes that time frame from left to right, and price high to low.

Now my first choice is to be in a position durring the first 2 hours of Tokyo going with the overall trend. August 2 I would have had one but for some reason didn't, I don't recall why. It is not in my personal journal either.

Back to the square.

This represents the high and low of how Tokyo affects the market. Frankfurt at times has a mind of its own. But I still use it for my trendlines. I don't enter untill London opens. You see on the chart how price broke out of Tokyo high and then retraced back into Tokyo. This usually happens and I wait for it.The trend is up..

I watch the 15m chart and place my trendlines there as well. When 5m candle closes beyond the tl I take the position.

Targets are determined by overhead resistance and fibs. My best run so far was 175 pips or so.

Let me know if more details are needed. Starting to BBQ some chicken

Rufus

This is very interesting to me and I am going to start paying attention to it.

I think I can smell the chicken from here.

Thanks

Kurt

To quote Erikte


"Nailed it like a shingle"

Very Nice, nailed that on with a 20 penny nail

I did not get to trade today, typical Monday at my office.

Kurt

Haha

Cheers,

"Success requires no apologies, failure permits no alibis."

I like that

Very nice, clean simple and to the point.. catching the break of the previous session or day , can be a awesome move as if the market is trending we are just continuing with the trend.

Plus marking that area with a box can be done on the most basic platform using vertical and horizontal lines.

Think one key point is your waiting for a retrace as a entry straight away could get you stopped and . Most don't recover quicklly enough to catch the second or retrace entry.

Thanks for sharing ,,, Ken

Looks like we had some nice movement today while I was working. Sticking laminate on countertops today.

So anyway maybe we will see some follow through with London. Better yet, a pull back with Tokyo that follows through with London

A few posts back I had mentioned something about confidence. I ran into this the other day while reading and it helped me to understand an aspect of trading.

We have two types of confidence.

#1
An inner confidence that is developed over time through study and practical application. This practical application is required to obtain confidence.

We have our trading plan. We know it works. We have confidence in it. However 3 or 4 loosing trades and our confidence begins to waver. 10 and it may be shot. Blown account and you may be damaged goods.

So how do we handle this?

Your buddy may be using the exact same system but seldom loosing. Now you are thinking yourself a failure. Or you are blaming the "Broker".

This inner confidence is based on our subconscious mind. Which is developed by the information we put there and our experience, and how the two interact together. Both good and bad. We endeavor to build our subconscious mind day by day with positive learning experiences. And it seems like one negetive can wipe out a lot of positive at times. This inner confidence is what enables you to approach the market with an attitude of "I am going to kick the crap out of this today" And do it.

This is where the second confidence comes in to play.

#2

This is the outter confidence.. So now what is this?....Keep in mind this is all stuff I have extrapolated from different sources so I don't know if you will be able to find much on it.

This outer confidence is what we are seeing. Most all of us have seen this happen in our trading at one time or another. "The perfect setup". This outer confidence is what happens when we see things lining up for a position.

The outer confidence is based on facts. In the case of the markets, the charts are lining up for a position.


When my inner confidence lines up with the outer confidence, I have a trade. If I am not confident in what I am seeing, it doesn't set right with my understanding of the charts or my understanding with my inner confidence. There is no trade.

If latter it moves 100 pips in the direction you thought it might. Find out why. Did I miss something? Find it and you further develop your innerconfidence.

Sometimes I get to thinking a lot about stuff and start putting things together. Maybe this will help some. I know it will help me.

Now lets get some pips.

Rufus

EU position
Took this before London opened.
1. With 1h trend
2. Bounce of Daily pivot
3. Bounce off 61.8 fib of recent move
4. Bounce off 38.2 fib from high of yesterday.
5. Previous Price Action zone PPA
6. 200 MA
15 pip SL

I am going to hold this position. I am expecting it to run. SL now at BE, Moved it with a 30 pip move.

Rufus

Added to position. First part at BE. Now we need this bugger to break down.

Rufus

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1282635671

i'm short too. let's cross fingers ... or as we say in italian "sperem !"

ciao

The Bankers in London are not listening to me.... It is time to drive this thing down.

Rufus

Gottcha