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Trade Using VSA (Volume Spread Analysis)

  • #8,141
  • Aug 21, 2010 2:33am Aug 21, 2010 2:33am
London swing trades......Fruitcake anyone?
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  • #8,142
  • Edited 11:09am Aug 21, 2010 10:55am | Edited 11:09am
Quoting A-game
London swing trades......Fruitcake anyone?
it was to easy . i even mentioned the exact entry several hrs before the drop in eu thread


interesting .... interesting .... smart completely missed that test on the 15 min at the bottom ... one of the most important set ups... SHAMUS you got to get a fix for that one.

A game .. move started at 2900 not London .... study your 30 min and background and you will see it. It was a nice smooth trade , distribution off 2900 all week, then a lovely buying climax , followed by ut. .. sideways then a no demand then down we go

we seem to have a ton of buying just under 1.2730 , waiting to see if that gets absorbed or if in fact that indicates that the news for euro in Mondays london session is good and takes it back up . If it does i will be looking for sellers in around the 1,2800 to 2830 area. The fact that 1.2730 , which is lows of july 17th was marked down thru suggests pros are expecting lower prices. I am still holding my sell but stop is moved down to lock in some pips. I was expecting about 600 pip off this trade thru next week , but that volume on 60 min , the grouping being highest of week , just under support 2730 is bothering me


no software can replace actually understanding background and how the market works. even though shamus has done a great job on no software can replace actually understanding background and how the market works. even though shamus has done a great job on smart and it is a cost effective way as a learning tool for vsa
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #8,143
  • Aug 21, 2010 11:36am Aug 21, 2010 11:36am
Quoting malcolmb14


no software can replace actually understanding background and how the market works. even though shamus has done a great job on no software can replace actually understanding background and how the market works. even though shamus has done a great job on smart and it is a cost effective way as a learning tool for vsa


Of course it doesn't replace actually reading background however for people still learning vsa like me it is an incredible learning tool but is that not the point lol? We can't yet properly read smart money's intentions? SMART coupled with yours and HG's enlightening posts, and the training wheels will be off for us in no time. My trading has increased dramatically since acquiring this software so im very happy
  • #8,144
  • Aug 21, 2010 11:43am Aug 21, 2010 11:43am
Quoting malcolmb14
it was to easy . i even mentioned the exact entry several hrs before the drop in eu thread


interesting .......



By the way Malcom i remember you telling me some time ago that you were thinking of putting your own vsa material together in a short course format for $500-$1000. How is that coming along or have you changed your mind and just decided to make millions trading haha?
  • #8,145
  • Aug 21, 2010 11:56am Aug 21, 2010 11:56am
Quoting A-game
By the way Malcom i remember you telling me some time ago that you were thinking of putting your own vsa material together in a short course format for $500-$1000. How is that coming along or have you changed your mind and just decided to make millions trading haha?
i think when I said that i said it with tongue in check .... never had any intention of doing that

I may do a 1 week free thing in winter , live trading 3 hours per day for those interested in learning vsa ... no skin off my nose and I am here any way

Keep posted on my vsa thread , if this happens it will be in October sometime.

lol millions .. get it right only 1.3 mill last year..lol .. then the alarm clock went off and i woke up . I do ok but not to that level YET give me 2 more years...vsa is the way to go though. This week was easy ... big week for me trading range gu and eu. I tried as much as i could to keep all updated in my thread
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #8,146
  • Aug 21, 2010 12:03pm Aug 21, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting malcolmb14
i think when I said that i said it with tongue in check .... never had any intention of doing that

I may do a 1 week free thing in winter , live trading 3 hours per day for those interested in learning vsa ... no skin off my nose and I am here any way

Keep posted on my vsa thread , if this happens it will be in October sometime.

lol millions .. get it right only 1.3 mill last year..lol .. then the alarm clock went off and i woke up . I do ok but not to that level YET give me 2 more years...vsa is the way to go though. This week was easy...


Thats a great idea Malcolm and would most definitely benefit those of us still learning vsa. I look forward to it.
  • #8,147
  • Edited 6:15pm Aug 21, 2010 4:00pm | Edited 6:15pm
Supply Swamping Demand or Entering Market meets Support at Top of Weekly Bar with Greatest Volume for 2010. No Demand or Up Thrust or Failed Tests for buying Will Signal Further Sell Down.

This also looks like a failed test. According to a pdf I leeched from attachments on this thread that purports to contain the VSA bar definitions from TG software a failed test is "A down-bar, on a wide spread, closing on the low, with low and the close lower than the previous few bars, indicates weakness." These are weekly bars, so they are all wide spread relative to shorter TFBs. The most recent bar hosts higher volume that its ten predecessors, and there is weakness in the background.

This may also be categorized under the Weakness has appeared heading. The blurb says: "A sharp down move, closing on the lows, with the low and the close lower than the previous few bars is usually sign of weakness, This is especially true if you are already in a down trend, or if you have seen weakness int back ground."

Perhaps sovereign buyers will step aside for another week so as to enjoy lower Euro prices. (Oh Boy, Europe is on Sale.)
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  • #8,148
  • Aug 21, 2010 6:35pm Aug 21, 2010 6:35pm
Unlocking Volume Analysis by Todd Krueger

http://ajaxfinancial.info/downloads/...dd_Krueger.pdf
  • #8,149
  • Edited 8:59pm Aug 21, 2010 7:05pm | Edited 8:59pm
After an unsuccessful test of demand at 1.2662 on better than average volume, lack of supply on low volume suggests possible corrective up move to 38.2 retracement of up move from 1.1877 to 1.3333 high. However, a test of demand at a previous resistance price is more reliable on lower than average volume. That this test was on higher than average volume, suggests an additional retest of the highs of May 21. I think the low volume close on Friday would suggest a flat opening on Sunday afternoon and that successful observation of signs of strength would call for cautious counter-trend long trades. Use buy stops positioned atop penultimate bar if SOS is observed with the caveat in mind that an upthrust is a sign of weakness and would presage continued downward pressure.
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  • #8,150
  • Aug 23, 2010 6:49am Aug 23, 2010 6:49am
Hello SHAMUS and Congratulations for your promising release.

I am sure that it has the potential to evolve into a really smart opportunity pin pointer!

At a first glance, I would like to have more alert notification options.
I know that are easy to code in mql4. just a few non brainer lines of code!

So email notification option would be nice for mobile phone notification and pop up alert message is perfect for those nights with others sleeping around you or there is loud music or noise background!

Also as I am watching multiple pairs and many time frames there moments where voice notifications overlap, the voice of first is lost and generally there is a confusion climax about origin of voice. eg was it on EU-GU-JPY 1H-15M-5Min?

All the best!
  • #8,151
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:28am Aug 23, 2010 8:28am
Tom Williams in Undeclared Secrets That Drive The Stock Market wrote the following:
(file link http://www.4shared.com/file/52414141...ck_Market.html )
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  • #8,152
  • Aug 23, 2010 10:05am Aug 23, 2010 10:05am
I was wrong about the retracement up to the 38.2% fib. Euro was too weak.

1. Buying Climax; 2. Hidden Up Thrust; 3. Stopping Volume; 4. No Demand
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  • #8,153
  • Aug 23, 2010 1:08pm Aug 23, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting rbumbalough
I was wrong about the retracement up to the 38.2% fib. Euro was too weak.

1. Buying Climax; 2. Hidden Up Thrust; 3. Stopping Volume; 4. No Demand
1. ND after hidden upthrust...Bar 2
2 ND after stopping volume Bar 3 ..

Did You note the selling to Your Left ? 2 bar reversal..
  • #8,154
  • Aug 25, 2010 9:07am Aug 25, 2010 9:07am
Hi Guys I am back from Vacation (sorta), I will still be in and out 'til Sunday. I hope trading is going well.

PS Great posts RB.
The trend always ends.
  • #8,155
  • Aug 25, 2010 2:36pm Aug 25, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting taomql4
1. ND after hidden upthrust...Bar 2
2 ND after stopping volume Bar 3 ..

Did You note the selling to Your Left ? 2 bar reversal..
Indeed, I did not, for my intention in the post was to explore a VSA explanation of that particular swing high and subsequent sell down only. What I did there was a fallacy. VSA mandates continuous awareness of what has happened to the left for a minimum of two hundred bars. In some cases it is advantageous to look back in time towards the left for many more bars to be cognitively aware of volume quantities at prior swing highs or lows and support and resistance price amounts. So then, thank you for pointing out my deficiency in failing to include leftward observations as context for a VSA commentary.

Best Wishes for Big Profits

addendum: Although my Volume Spread Analysis ability is dismal, yet what little I do have command of is dramatically improving my trades. So far this week, I'm up about 328 pips. If I can continue this for a few months as I improve my knowledge of VSA, I'll be able to graduate to a mini account. However, whatever a trader trades and no matter what size lots, she must always and without fail practice proper strict capital exposure control and management of winning trades. Additionally, it is desirable to be able to hedge positions with appropriate option positions. But that is subject matter for some other thread.
  • #8,156
  • Aug 25, 2010 2:40pm Aug 25, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting Shamus
Hi Guys I am back from Vacation (sorta), I will still be in and out 'til Sunday. I hope trading is going well.

PS Great posts RB.
Hello Shamus: its good to have you back. If I have failed to mention it, you did good in developing a software product that assists others to make money in the markets. Its entrepreneurial efforts like your's that make civilization better for everybody.

Best Wishes for Big Profits.
  • #8,157
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:42pm Aug 25, 2010 4:42pm
My simplistic VSA outlook for AUDJPY. This is probably wrong, so do your own due diligence studies. However I would appreciate any comments or critiques of my analysis.
*****************
A: Selling Climax followed by high volume mark up with absorption buying then a wide spread by lower volume bar that may have acted as a no supply signal. This was followed by a shake out and another no supply test prior to a 400 pip rally that bounced up from horizontal support line at 72.56 dating from 4-26-09 weekly high volume mark up bar.

B: Shake out bar testing 72.56 again followed by two successive lower volume no supply daily bars. Smart Money or Composite Operator then re-tested down to 72.68 with yet another shake out. Subsequent mark up bar initially sold down to test candle body close to open trend line and rallied up for a 500 pip move over the next 6 trading days.

C: Yesterday’s selling climax found support along the lower shadow low to lower shadow low trend line at 73.48. Today’s markup bar on somewhat lower volume than yesterday’s climax exhibits absorption buying. If AJ behaves similarly to previous tests of lower trend line, then I expect rate to range between the two lower trend lines for the rest of the week. If rate successfully tests support at 72.56 or thereabouts, then buyers should be able to rally it up three or four hundred pips to the upper trend lines of the triangle.

When the news is really bad and retail traders are heading for the exits, smart money composite operator is accumulating for the next bull campaign.
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  • #8,158
  • Aug 27, 2010 11:08am Aug 27, 2010 11:08am
I just posted up a new AJ chart by request in the posterous. I am off as it's DZ time in NY lol.

I'll start posting up basket charts again for all those asking when I am home. I don't have globex charts on the mini, and do very light trading while I am away.

Have a great weekend and to those still trading today, good luck.

See you in the chat.
The trend always ends.
  • #8,159
  • Edited 9:58pm Aug 28, 2010 7:26pm | Edited 9:58pm
Hello Friends

In the following chart I speculate on a pull back buy scenario in the EURJPY.

A. Support due to wide range body high volume bars. Yes VSA ignores the open of a bar, however, the spread between a bars open and close often acts as a support or resistance zone. In this 10M chart there are several WRB high volume candles/bars intrinsic to the recent bull move. These areas should act as support. If EJ pulls back into the zone between the red lines look for low volume tests down (hammers) and seek to get long on any No Supply bar that drops down to the high of the test or on subsequent bars that close above the test bars high on higher volume.

B. Immediate resistance should be demarcated by the Upper Median Line Parallel of an Andrew's Pitchfork trend channel that is anchored on the high volume swing low-high-low that kicked off this current bullish move. Look for failure at the upper median line and a pull back to the median line. If that happens there is a better than 80% frequentest probability that rate will regain at least the upper median line. If EJ zooms and breaks out above the UMLP, then it should find resistance between 109.3 and 109.7. Look for bullish continuation strength coming in. Low volume tests of the UMLP after break up followed by low volume, narrow spread, mid or high close or no supply bars.

C. This APF median line should provide strong support given the pattern of strength in the background and the revival of risk appetite. Look for tests or shake outs terminating on or very near the line followed by signs of strength coming in.

If getting long at C, then stop would be under HV-WRB to left of letter A. If instead of SOS at C, SOW are seen, then wait for zoom below ML and look for Up Thrust No Demand retest of ML to get short. If getting long at B on zoom up over UMLP, then set stop under penultimate swing low and seek long opportunity upon shake out/test followed by low volume No Supply near low of test and close to UMLP. If instead of SOS at UMLP SOW appear, then wait for retest of UMLP from below on Up Thrust or high volume Squat following Marubozu mark up on normal volume. Always have a contingency plan.
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  • #8,160
  • Aug 28, 2010 11:14pm Aug 28, 2010 11:14pm
pros do not give a damn about upper limits of pitch forks...

zero weakness so far on a 30 min ... the only thing that may show a form of weakness is bear vol div .... but that rarely mean anything after london close.

Look for ut , nd or buying climaxes on a 15 min to confirm the weakness that you think you can see ... so far I do not see it

Quoting rbumbalough
Hello Friends

In the following chart I speculate on a pull back buy scenario in the EURJPY.

A. Support due to wide range body high volume bars. Yes VSA ignores the open of a bar, however, the spread between a bars open and close often acts as a support or resistance zone. In this 10M chart there are several WRB high volume candles/bars intrinsic to the recent bull move. These areas should act as support. If EJ pulls back into the zone between the red lines look for low volume tests down (hammers) and seek to get long on any No Supply bar that...
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