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vsa with Malcolm

  • #2,761
  • Aug 20, 2010 12:26pm Aug 20, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting @mel
Hi Intel,

The 2nd one displays the best on my chart. The 1st one is not really clear, I can't really read the price etc...
Mel
OK thanks for that guys. The 2nd comes up best on mine also. They are both PNG but the 1st is from my 18.4" laptop whilst the 2nd is from my 15.6".

I will look into it.

Cheers
  • #2,762
  • Aug 20, 2010 1:38pm Aug 20, 2010 1:38pm
From MTM p.32-33;

‘Lack of demand’ is one of the most common indications you will see and it is pretty easy to pick out.

Basically, you will be watching out for a low volume up-bar, on a narrow spread, such as the one identified by TradeGuider in the chart below.

If, over the next few bars or more, the price closes down, on declining volume, with narrow spreads, then this indicates that there is no selling pressure. In this case, we have observed some temporary weakness, which has now been overcome – the up-move may now continue.

Whilst reading a chart, try to keep in mind that most people fail to link human behaviour (in this case, of professional traders) with the price spreads and the volume, but would rather believe the mass of incoming
'news', which inevitably differs from what supply and demand is telling you.

It is the lack of demand from professional money that causes a market to roll over at the tops, resulting in the characteristic mushroom shape. You will not notice this weakness because the news will still be good.

The chart above shows a market that is completely devoid of professional support. All the Xs on the chart show narrow spread bars that are closing higher than the previous bar, on low volume. There is absolutely no way a market can rally up through an old trading top, and into fresh new ground on this lack of demand.

Do not view lack of demand in isolation – try to take a holistic view when reading the market. You should always look to the background. What are the previous bars telling you? If you have the TradeGuider software, this will help you to become a better trader by teaching you how to read the markets. In time, you will become more proficient at market analysis, such that you may even decide to trade ‘blind’, to test your skills without the supply and demand indicators built into the software.

For now, remember that we need confirmation before shorting the market following any sign of no demand. There are many confirming indicators built into the software, but suffice to say that this sometimes appears as a narrow spread up-bar on greatly increased volume. In this instance, professional traders have started to transfer stock to eager uninformed (or misinformed!) buyers. Prices are being kept low to encourage buying, which accounts for the narrow spread. These traders are completely unaware of the implications of volume activity and are probably buying on repeated ‘good news‘.
Attached Images
  • #2,763
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:01pm Aug 20, 2010 2:01pm
The most serious trading mistake I made this week was to close my winning short positions in Euro/USD. To make large profits a trader should hold winning positions until the trend has fully run its course. I will monitor EU for new short signals, Up Thrusts, No Demands, Buying climaxes, End of Rising Markets, followed by higher volume narrow spread squat bars with up closes.

The 38% retracement from the 1.2932 swing high on 12 August to today's low at 1.2663 is at 1.2766. I think that might be a good place to expect signs of weakness.

Some may criticize use of Fibonacci retracements as not being proper to VSA; however, as VSA is a sub-branch of Wyckoff's method and whereas WM encompasses Elliot Wave Theory and since EWT utilizes Fibs., then Fibonacci retacements and extensions clustering are appropriate for use in VSA.

Have a good weekend, and do something fun with your dog.
  • #2,764
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:07pm Aug 20, 2010 2:07pm
fib is good to look for potential areas of weakness / strength

Quoting rbumbalough
The most serious trading mistake I made this week was to close my winning short positions in Euro/USD. To make large profits a trader should hold winning positions until the trend has fully run its course. I will monitor EU for new short signals, Up Thrusts, No Demands, Buying climaxes, End of Rising Markets, followed by higher volume narrow spread squat bars with up closes.

The 38% retracement from the 1.2932 swing high on 12 August to today's low at 1.2663 is at 1.2766. I think that might be a good place to expect signs of weakness.

Some...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,765
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:29pm Aug 20, 2010 2:29pm
Hi ,
can some1 post 15 mins charts from TG for EU. any help would be appreciated. I'm expecting a short from here, so would like to confirm with TG with Esignal feed. Thanks in advanced.
  • #2,766
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:37pm Aug 20, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting Intel
OK thanks for that guys. The 2nd comes up best on mine also. They are both PNG but the 1st is from my 18.4" laptop whilst the 2nd is from my 15.6".

I will look into it.

Cheers
Hi Intel

1st is JPEG not PNG while second is PNG check again.

PNG is better than JPEG and GIF.
  • #2,767
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:51pm Aug 20, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting wajid
Hi Intel

1st is JPEG not PNG while second is PNG check again.

PNG is better than JPEG and GIF.
Well bugger me!!!!

You're absolutely right......I have been saving them as PNG or so I thought.........the cunning little cumputer.

I'll sort it and try again.

Many thanks.
  • #2,768
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:57pm Aug 20, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting Intel
Well bugger me!!!!

You're absolutely right......I have been saving them as PNG or so I thought.........the cunning little cumputer.

I'll sort it and try again.

Many thanks.
Ok ok whats going on here They ARE PNG on my computer but after uploading them, they become jpg .

Any ideas anyone?
  • #2,769
  • Aug 20, 2010 3:01pm Aug 20, 2010 3:01pm
Ah I got it, with my 18.4" laptop the screen resolution is too big for FFs download rules. They are 1920 x 1080. The maximum for a PNG file is 1500 x 1500.

I'll have to do something about it.
  • #2,770
  • Aug 20, 2010 4:36pm Aug 20, 2010 4:36pm
try this
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  • #2,771
  • Aug 20, 2010 9:26pm Aug 20, 2010 9:26pm
something made me unsettled about this down move in the market today, could be options expiry and that is why the high volume or could be today was one big fat shake out

I also saw a ton of volume on the 60 min under 1,2730 .

I am just not as confident as I was that this down move continues next week and until we break todays low on dj ./ s&p and eu am treading very carefully and trying to keep an open mind

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,772
  • Aug 21, 2010 7:12am Aug 21, 2010 7:12am
Whomsoever it was who posted link to Tradeguider VSA instructional seminar recordings at

http://www.tradeguider.com/customer/...px?Submit=Back

Thank you. These lectures are educational.

Best Wishes for Big Profits
  • #2,773
  • Aug 21, 2010 11:41am Aug 21, 2010 11:41am
Quoting rbumbalough
Whomsoever it was who posted link to Tradeguider VSA instructional seminar recordings at

http://www.tradeguider.com/customer/...px?Submit=Back

Thank you. These lectures are educational.

Best Wishes for Big Profits
Thank you. I know what I'm doing for the rest of the day.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #2,774
  • Aug 21, 2010 12:47pm Aug 21, 2010 12:47pm
yeap. no longs for me and selling all rallies.

as of now, 1.2750 is key level but i can't really say where medium term bottom is. it may actually go lower... maybe another 1-200 pips... i won't consider longs until i see a solid confirmation that bias turned to the upside - if ever again.

Quoting malcolmb14
something made me unsettled about this down move in the market today, could be options expiry and that is why the high volume or could be today was one big fat shake out

I also saw a ton of volume on the 60 min under 1,2730 .

I am just not as confident as I was that this down move continues next week and until we break todays low on dj ./ s&p and eu am treading very carefully and trying to keep an open mind

Attachment
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #2,775
  • Aug 21, 2010 12:57pm Aug 21, 2010 12:57pm
Yep, agree with Strat. Move down not done yet. The volume Malc was mentioning could in part be due to Axl Faber's comments. Looked very much like these comments merely sped up a move which had already started. Did not look like a fakeout to me.
  • #2,776
  • Aug 21, 2010 2:29pm Aug 21, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Yep, agree with Strat. Move down not done yet. The volume Malc was mentioning could in part be due to Axl Faber's comments. Looked very much like these comments merely sped up a move which had already started. Did not look like a fakeout to me.
Wish I could tell fakeouts from the real thing.

I thought the move down was real but I have been wrong many times before on things like this.
  • #2,777
  • Aug 21, 2010 2:50pm Aug 21, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting moonchild
Wish I could tell fakeouts from the real thing.

I thought the move down was real but I have been wrong many times before on things like this.
the way they marke3d it down thru 1.2730 was a good indiction we will get lower prices.

a couple of things making me nervous abut the whole move though and making me cautious:

1) the upper and lower value on friday was narrow ( 1.2730 to 1.2670) meaning all the volume was in the lower half of the day , could indicate accumualtion

2) there is major support line right under us that was kissed ( 1.2660)

I will be looking for any up moves to 1.2750 to be capped , and will be looking for 1.2660 to be broken , this will confirm 1.2500 tp 01 area.

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,778
  • Aug 21, 2010 4:00pm Aug 21, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting malcolmb14
the way they marke3d it down thru 1.2730 was a good indiction we will get lower prices.

a couple of things making me nervous abut the whole move though and making me cautious:

1) the upper and lower value on friday was narrow ( 1.2730 to 1.2670) meaning all the volume was in the lower half of the day , could indicate accumualtion

2) there is major support line right under us that was kissed ( 1.2660)

I will be looking for any up moves to 1.2750 to be capped , and will be looking for 1.2660 to be broken , this will confirm 1.2500 tp 01 area....
That is true and that a reason to b careful

I would like to add "Don't forget DX on 4h "N shape" , looks to me there is a double top
This thing need to retrace down.
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  • #2,779
  • Aug 21, 2010 5:36pm Aug 21, 2010 5:36pm
Quoting malcolmb14
the way they marke3d it down thru 1.2730 was a good indiction we will get lower prices.

a couple of things making me nervous abut the whole move though and making me cautious:

1) the upper and lower value on friday was narrow ( 1.2730 to 1.2670) meaning all the volume was in the lower half of the day , could indicate accumualtion

2) there is major support line right under us that was kissed ( 1.2660)

I will be looking for any up moves to 1.2750 to be capped , and will be looking for 1.2660 to be broken , this will confirm 1.2500 tp 01...
Yep agree 124 ish ultimate target than up in this segment.
Now before you tell me off here's a gift for you Malc. Look to buy the low in dow around Oct 20th. and buy heavily http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif keep this in mind. love ya!
E
  • #2,780
  • Aug 21, 2010 6:44pm Aug 21, 2010 6:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
cool website ... but I let the charts talk to me ....lol

eu has given mnay nice vsa set ups in the 1.2900 to 1.2850 channel today and seeing that we are above yesterdays upper value areas I have been buying dips mostly

the fact that the 4 hour hulls has been up all week since the shake out in asia supports the longs for now . There is a prior sup[port line at 1.3000 that has not been tested yet . If this is tested and market drops off it ( 1.3025 max ) then we have a very nice h and s on the daily. Again though I am not assuming we do drop off...
So what is the best thread at ForexFactory.com to get a handle on "Better Volume" indicator usage in Forex (where we have no typical volume information, no trade size info). I am a marketdelta user for futures with bid/ask differential info but forex with upticks/downticks seems of limited value. Maybe I am missing seeing the value in the forex "tick" volume info?
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