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Momentum and StochRSI system

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  • Post #721
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  • Jul 6, 2010 1:58pm Jul 6, 2010 1:58pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Quoting ukcool
Disliked
Ok buddy, let see what it does on the 15m.
Ignored
U have to bear in mind above m15 is m30 h1 h4 d1 w m which have greatest influence than m15.

divergence on m15 is good for 50-100 pips profit depends on pair but still ONE divergence on m15 WILL NOT change daily trend.

So if u see that daily is about to leave bull/bear zone h4 MUST support this view then h1 then m30 or m15.

Simple clockwork or step by step base on S/R
This system only can show u what position is against major trend and when trend is about to end which doesn not mean the price may not run another a few hundreds pips before divergence will play out.
 
 
  • Post #722
  • Quote
  • Jul 6, 2010 2:10pm Jul 6, 2010 2:10pm
  •  ukcool
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Member | 458 Posts
Can you give a little more explanation on your trigger.
Plus on the chart what you see as trend.
 
 
  • Post #723
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  • Edited 3:14pm Jul 6, 2010 2:44pm | Edited 3:14pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Quoting ukcool
Disliked
Can you give a little more explanation on your trigger.
Plus on the chart what you see as trend.
Ignored
Well and here u need knowledge about candlestick patterns also eliot waves theory and of course fundamental analysis.

I guess u need a realtime proofs, it is not so simple.

Trigger might me even m5 stoch rejection but if its fails u need to close trade immediately on BE in most cases.

Trigger might be big S/R zone with candle shadows(wicks) which show us pressure to one currency.

S/R is often based on fibo extension - see first post.

To put it straight when u see trend fading(divergence) when price approches strong S/R u have big odds for bounce off that level.

However S/R might be tested many times so there is no point to hurry - i prefer double top patterns or multimple ones.

There are also undocumented rules like crossiing of emas or three retrace(three broken bottoms) in trend before 61.8/76.4 retrace.
This system is not simple cross something then buy/sell and never will be.
 
 
  • Post #724
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2010 5:38pm Jul 7, 2010 5:38pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
And here it is m15 signal generates 400 pips so far
It does not happen everytime unless u know how to use this system
this time it was last m15 stoch cycle- once i tried to count how many m15 cycles must be done before h1 will reverse - hard thing to do for me.


Long term view is still bullish huge accumulation on 1.40-1.43 levels
See monthly chart.
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  • Post #725
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  • Jul 8, 2010 3:08am Jul 8, 2010 3:08am
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
If someone bought aud/usd aud/jpy seems good thing to keep it as long term carry trade investment.

Have a look at silver daily, momentum fading which means there is no selling pressure anymore.
Rejection of bear zone is highly likely.

GL to all.
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  • Post #726
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  • Jul 11, 2010 3:27pm Jul 11, 2010 3:27pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Big test this week for USD - 0.90-0.92 is the sell level for big boys if we see more risk aversion on stock markets then target for short should be arround 0.7 minimum.

If we see more risk appetite(more likely for now) then north direction will be open to test all time highs and even beyond.

but fist lets wait and see reaction at 90's zone.
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  • Post #727
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  • Jul 11, 2010 3:51pm Jul 11, 2010 3:51pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Big loser ?
Bullish divergence on the making but still it needs to dive below 1.35 to be valid as LONG signal.

The major long term trend is bearish and still in tact.
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  • Post #728
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  • Jul 11, 2010 4:14pm Jul 11, 2010 4:14pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Upward channel is valid untill break of lower TL - imho less likely.

We can see triangle in play- mostly is the sign of accumulation of primary currency in this case USD.

Long term target 1.3 minimum as long as stays above parity.
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  • Post #729
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  • Jul 11, 2010 5:59pm Jul 11, 2010 5:59pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Euro strength or NZD weakness ?

bullish div on weekly but long is not safe just yet unles u can manage 1000pips DD

h4 in downtrend cycle

NU at UTL of flag.
daily stoch ready to reverse.
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  • Post #730
  • Quote
  • Jul 11, 2010 7:42pm Jul 11, 2010 7:42pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Almost done.

weekly close above ema50 and bull run should start.
I am looking for long near parity, 1.025 will be my first long order.
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  • Post #731
  • Quote
  • Jul 15, 2010 1:19am Jul 15, 2010 1:19am
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Time to exit aussie longs it was good 400 pips, rejection played out nicely

on daily we have no demand candle so called spinning top.

bearish div on h3 TF
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  • Post #732
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  • Jul 15, 2010 1:59am Jul 15, 2010 1:59am
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
also clear bearish div just below daily ema200!

whole bear flag is about to collapse and clear all longs.
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  • Post #733
  • Quote
  • Jul 24, 2010 7:20am Jul 24, 2010 7:20am
  •  steroidman
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Member | 572 Posts
hmmm
 
 
  • Post #734
  • Quote
  • Aug 13, 2010 1:57pm Aug 13, 2010 1:57pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Didnt work out with cable but...

cj short is "high probability" trade unless she clear 86.30
All conditions have met although decision is not in our hands.
We need final push below 80 psychological level.
Target must be hit this year otherwise prediction is wrong.

GL to all.
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  • Post #735
  • Quote
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:32am Aug 19, 2010 10:32am
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Game over for kiwi

weekly bearish div on the play.
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  • Post #736
  • Quote
  • Aug 20, 2010 4:54pm Aug 20, 2010 4:54pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Here i have to clear something.

Weekly divergence could take some time to play hard way, now is only matter of when not if.

weekly candle is slightly bullish doji on ema50 support -
Strategy is simply follow breakout of doji range.
or just wait for UTL of triangle to short but only when price will stall.

price need to break ema50 to confirm bear div on weekly..

GL
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  • Post #737
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2010 6:14pm Sep 7, 2010 6:14pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
nothing new yet compared to this
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=693
though maybe lower all time low
hard to bet for bottom but we are getting "closer".

and even tiny sign of significant JPY distribution.
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  • Post #738
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2010 6:27pm Sep 7, 2010 6:27pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
aussie seems confirmed bearish view,
retracement wave hit my target.
works like a charm this time

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=712

now we have double top seems perfect time for 2000 pps down i think, unless she breaks higher.


note how rejection worked out very well on daily - marked in red circle.
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  • Post #739
  • Quote
  • Sep 9, 2010 4:21am Sep 9, 2010 4:21am
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
aussie is moving higher - setup postponed
potential targets .94 then .98

AUD is incredible strong.

I am watching also AUD/CAD slowly approaches parity level too.
400 pips to go...
 
 
  • Post #740
  • Quote
  • Sep 12, 2010 1:37pm Sep 12, 2010 1:37pm
  •  5ysfx
  • Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
NZD is ready for sell off

EUR/NZD
Weekly bullish divergence near TL, bounce off of that TL is every 175 pips so according to this info i believe next boune off is planned somewhere below 17400 to 17330.

Oanda's last avg price is 17408 thus i expect reversal on Asia session today.

NZD/USD

Same story if asia will dump kiwi today this gonna be last high this year if not then we have to take patience pills .
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