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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #361
  • Aug 19, 2010 8:18am Aug 19, 2010 8:18am
Reading on the wires, El Pais, that an internal Moody's credit agency report has shortlisted France, Germany, UK and the US as about to have their credit ratings downgraded. Oh dear...

The UK may get back off the list due to a 38% rise in corporation tax.

Developments on this should be interesting.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #362
  • Aug 19, 2010 8:33am Aug 19, 2010 8:33am
Quoting 45Condor
Reading on the wires, El Pais, that an internal Moody's credit agency report has shortlisted France, Germany, UK and the US as about to have their credit ratings downgraded. Oh dear...

The UK may get back off the list due to a 38% rise in corporation tax.

Developments on this should be interesting.
Hi 45Condor,

Has that new just come out on the wires??? I was under the impression all the mentioned were considered as stable froma downgrade for the moment other than Spain????
http://v3.moodys.com/Pages/default.aspx

See your still holding that trade well

Stocky
  • #363
  • Aug 19, 2010 8:45am Aug 19, 2010 8:45am
http://www.elpais.com/buscar/moody

Holding on with finger nails...

Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi 45Condor,

Has that new just come out on the wires??? I was under the impression all the mentioned were considered as stable froma downgrade for the moment other than Spain????
http://v3.moodys.com/Pages/default.aspx

See your still holding that trade well

Stocky
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #364
  • Aug 19, 2010 8:53am Aug 19, 2010 8:53am
Quoting 45Condor
http://www.elpais.com/buscar/moody

Holding on with finger nails...
thanks bud

Stocky
  • #365
  • Edited 9:32am Aug 19, 2010 8:57am | Edited 9:32am
Quoting Hell7
The 4 hour EUR/USD chart shows that price is stuck in a wedge, hinting that price might be ready to break below the yellow trend line. I’m planning to short the top of this wedge using but will us a limited risk position as price is still in a clear uptrend.
The 4 hour EUR/USD chart shows that the wedge shown yesterday morphed into a flag. Just as bearish, but I’m still cautious shorting while price is above the yellow trend line.
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  • #366
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:18am Aug 19, 2010 9:18am
Quoting Hell7
The 4 hour EUR/USD chart shows that the wedge shown yesterday morphed ionto a flag. Just as bearish, but I’m still cautious shorting while price is above the yellow trend line.

Scalp trades:

EU is ranging between 2924 and 2800.

2904 resistance providing plenty of sell opps if your looking....tight stop above 2924 gives good RR....exit on 5 min reversal sigs...

Climax buying on the 1pm candle follwed by a doji at resistance.

Stocky
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  • #367
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:21am Aug 19, 2010 9:21am
Philly fed spikes EJ down to 109.26....support has got to give.

Stocky
  • #368
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:42am Aug 19, 2010 9:42am
Yes I'm short EUR/GBP; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; GBP/JPY. The one I should be short on is EUR/JPY but I'm waiting for it to close below 109.16, hourly - I think it might happen this afternoon. Bit of a sell off today.
Gone to a better place
  • #369
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:47am Aug 19, 2010 9:47am
I do favour a short on EU. Seems it will be an easier ride through support than GU. Time to buckle up for the run to the end of the week, I think.

Any bets on GU and EU reaching MPs for week close?

Quoting smikester
Yes I'm short EUR/GBP; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; GBP/JPY. The one I should be short on is EUR/JPY but I'm waiting for it to close below 109.16, hourly - I think it might happen this afternoon. Bit of a sell off today.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #370
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:58am Aug 19, 2010 9:58am
Perhaps...
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  • #371
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:04am Aug 19, 2010 10:04am
Quoting smikester
Yes I'm short EUR/GBP; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; GBP/JPY. The one I should be short on is EUR/JPY but I'm waiting for it to close below 109.16, hourly - I think it might happen this afternoon. Bit of a sell off today.
Same here im waiting for this support to break also......getting fed up looking at the same number...looks promising after the philly fed data...Im waiting for a hourly close below 109.24/15 area followed by spike back into the old range before a continuation to 107 area....Hopefully we can work through before friday close otherwise will have wait for asia open to possibly initiate the trade sunday evening....

Until then continue to short 110 area...top of the flag
goodluck with them shorts

Stocky
  • #372
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:28am Aug 19, 2010 10:28am
Quoting smikester
Yes I'm short EUR/GBP; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; GBP/JPY. The one I should be short on is EUR/JPY but I'm waiting for it to close below 109.16, hourly - I think it might happen this afternoon. Bit of a sell off today.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=157

Thoughts appreciated.
  • #373
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:30am Aug 19, 2010 10:30am
If GU fails to break the 5700/ 5650 area we are more than likely going to retest 5470 maybe even 5315 area before more buying pressure is seen. For the moment 1.55 is well defended but for those seting up medium term longs higher up I would consider the RR & drawdown required to cover that senario. I have a medium term long in at 1.55 at b/e and will contune to scalp between 1.55 and 1.57 area intraday until either the stop is hit or we break higher. If the stop is hit on my medium term position I will wait for 5315 area or a clear daily reversal signal which will probably mean re-entering around 1.55 again anyway.

Weekly market profile chart attached.....shows some key area where price may slow down or bounce....there is a weekly point of control level at 5484 just incase we do breach 1.55....that coupled with 5471 monthly support makes it a strong area for a bounce. If we break 1.57 then 1.58 has a strong weekly ledge which is where I would expected price to stall and range maybe.

Stocky
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  • #374
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:45am Aug 19, 2010 10:45am
have a good evening all!

Stocky
  • #375
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:51am Aug 19, 2010 11:51am
Quoting sinner-
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=157

Thoughts appreciated.
Hi Sinner and I made a visit to the thread. I'm pleased you study Ichimoku as it's always held a fascination for me. I posted after yours.
Gone to a better place
  • #376
  • Aug 19, 2010 8:26pm Aug 19, 2010 8:26pm
Thanks for your thoughts smikester, was my first EURGBP trade in quite some time. If you like the Ichimoku, come back often, as I plan on updating posts there fairly frequently (incl a fresh trade for today).

For those watching at home, gauging risk sentiment using the USDX, here is a fresh daily. RSI is primed above 50 now, with MACD showing mom on the way up. I think 83 psych level and the 50EMA provides a basic visual representation of S/R. As posted last time, I thought we would range more around the 80-82.5 area. Probably leaving buy stops just above the upper bollinger band (83.15-83.20?) and sell stops at 79.99 would be a good longer term low risk strategy to trade DXU0, or the equivalent in EURUSD or GBPUSD.
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  • #377
  • Aug 20, 2010 3:26am Aug 20, 2010 3:26am
Posted this chart a while back, 240510, and joked about possibility.

Could we possibly be heading for the D area this August, prior to BOJ intervention against the UJ malaise? Geppy seems to be uncoupled against Sterling, and following UJ more closely these days. Couple that with the expectations that Sterling is to move higher over the coming months, and one never knows.... but I thought I would throw this into the retail trader pot.
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  • #378
  • Aug 20, 2010 5:35am Aug 20, 2010 5:35am
Morning All.

EJ support at 109.15/24 finally gives this morning. Entered some shorts around 109.17 and 109.05 area. 1st target of 108.34 hit....next target daily TL and then 107.30.

GU 1.55 medium term long stopped out at break even. 5471 area has finally been hit with conviction. I expect us to bounce around here given the weekly POC at 5484 and montlhy support. Lots of momentum generated on that down move probably by a pool of retail trader stopps going off. The big guns that have been buying around 1.55 will have there stop most likely below 1.53 area and will continue to buy all the way down if this area dont hold.

Weekly COT report out today also!!

Stocky

EJ chart below
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  • #379
  • Aug 20, 2010 5:50am Aug 20, 2010 5:50am
Quoting sinner-
Thanks for your thoughts smikester, was my first EURGBP trade in quite some time. If you like the Ichimoku, come back often, as I plan on updating posts there fairly frequently (incl a fresh trade for today).

For those watching at home, gauging risk sentiment using the USDX, here is a fresh daily. RSI is primed above 50 now, with MACD showing mom on the way up. I think 83 psych level and the 50EMA provides a basic visual representation of S/R. As posted last time, I thought we would range more around the 80-82.5 area. Probably leaving buy stops...
Hi Sinner,

thanks for posting the Dollar Index chart....will be interesting to see if that resistance and the top of the bollinger band is enough to send the dx lower again. Its not unreasonable to expect GU to reverse from here given the 5470 support area.

How r the trades going??

Stocky
  • #380
  • Aug 20, 2010 5:54am Aug 20, 2010 5:54am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi Sinner,

thanks for posting the Dollar Index chart....will be interesting to see if that resistance and the top of the bollinger band is enough to send the dx lower again. Its not unreasonable to expect GU to reverse from here given the 5470 support area.

How r the trades going??

Stocky
Doing ok, got an EG short and a short on NZDUSD also. Posted in the Ichimoku thread. I did an EW count of NZDUSD, if we bounce from 0.7015 I could easily see it going to all time new highs :/ So basically we are back to betting on financial collapse and covering when the Fed steps in.
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