Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 106 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #2,101
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:11am Aug 19, 2010 7:11am
Quoting Sim
Premature close due to US open spunkfest
That non-directional part of the day when the European order books have been cleared. That's why I stayed away.

And more than usually, all eyes will be on the equity markets. SPX is currently at 38.2% of last week, and seems to be parked there. So lots of uncertainly out there. Methinks a rally today, and a sell-off tomorrow, but that's pure speculation.
  • #2,102
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:17am Aug 19, 2010 7:17am
Thanks, would love to be able to speculate like that!
  • #2,103
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:17am Aug 19, 2010 7:17am
Quoting Sim
Thanks, would love to be able to speculate like that!
What's stopping you?
  • #2,104
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:25am Aug 19, 2010 7:25am
I just cannot make any predictions, reason why I focussed on price-following!
  • #2,105
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:40am Aug 19, 2010 7:40am
Quoting Sim
I just cannot make any predictions, reason why I focussed on price-following!
Probably the wiser option in many ways.

As for predictions, that's something I'm trying to stay away from. It's more about patterns and levels with high probabilities. Some you win, some you lose.

So once a level with confirmation is identified, it's just a matter of hitting the button without thinking. Expect nothing, be prepared for everything. A game of probabilites, and in the long run a winner on average. And the high R:R contributes to that.
  • #2,106
  • Aug 19, 2010 8:08am Aug 19, 2010 8:08am
Quoting medici
Probably the wiser option in many ways.

As for predictions, that's something I'm trying to stay away from. It's more about patterns and levels with high probabilities. Some you win, some you lose.

So once a level with confirmation is identified, it's just a matter of hitting the button without thinking. Expect nothing, be prepared for everything. A game of probabilites, and in the long run a winner on average. And the high R:R contributes to that.
Truth!!

I love momentum moves lol.. gonna nap now suffering from no sleep the night before
  • #2,107
  • Aug 19, 2010 8:22am Aug 19, 2010 8:22am
Quoting Sim
Truth!!

I love momentum moves lol..
Then maybe you could watch the BBs and when price reverses and gathers steam, you go with the flow!?

Quote

gonna nap now suffering from no sleep the night before

Sweet dreams!
  • #2,108
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:13am Aug 19, 2010 9:13am
Quoting Sim
Noope just SR my friend, definitely studying your calmer CCI/BB band reversal trading! One thing which gets me abou reversals however is the constant spikes up back to the entry clusters though lol,, so I tend to take less and repeat the trades
More BB stuff for you. Notice how the 100 SMA first is support then resistance.
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  • #2,109
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:55am Aug 19, 2010 9:55am
Quoting medici
More BB stuff for you. Notice how the 100 SMA first is support then resistance.
And same thing in the Euro...
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  • #2,110
  • Edited 12:01pm Aug 19, 2010 10:34am | Edited 12:01pm
Hi medici and friends
I am posting all my trades for the day , so far, on the GU .
I have used only the M5 .(Have not used the M1 as a trigger chart)
Comments on how to do do better are welcome .

Trade #1:
15 min before new
SL was about 20 pips
So lucky/stupid/both.... finished with +111 p
(7 bars div. AND both LL outside BB !)

Trade#2
did not work -19 pips
(7 bars div . both HH inside BB ! ...may be an important observation (?)... and may be I was not supposed to take this trade)

Trade#3
+21 pips
(13 bar div . last HH outside BB)
How did I exit ?
Looked at the CII TL for a break out (yellow circle) .Many times the break out will be in the CII before that in the price.

Trade #4
-17 pips
(13 bar div ...all inside BB !)
played it similar to a box/range breakout

Trade #5
finished BE
(17 bar div . some bar protrude BB ...last one touched BB)
Should/Could have exit at "a" for around +20 pips or at "b" ...previous Low support level (yellow line)
it's a M5 after all ...so must pay attention to previous H/L's

Total (with luck ) +96
Looks that some of my entries are a bit late (?)
Will continue to experiment ...
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  • #2,111
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:40am Aug 19, 2010 11:40am
+40pips
div within the BB , not even touching
but have worked great.......... so (?)
I waited for S/R breakout ...
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  • #2,112
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:29pm Aug 19, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting david4u
Hi medici and friends
I am posting all my trades for the day , so far, on the GU .
I have used only the M5 .(Have not used the M1 as a trigger chart)
Comments on how to do do better are welcome .

Trade #1:
15 min before new
SL was about 20 pips
So lucky/stupid/both.... finished with +111 p
(7 bars div. AND both LL outside BB !)
Lucky bar-steward! Good entry apart from the news...

Quote

Trade#2
did not work -19 pips
(7 bars div . both HH inside BB ! ...may be an important observation (?)... and may be I was not supposed to take this trade)

That was a late entry. I took the short from the top (and the previous top) based on divergence and PA but closed for a dozen or so each, expecting the final burst that came later. Just by experience, I expect impulse moves to end with an exhaustive burst.

Quote


Trade#3
+21 pips
(13 bar div . last HH outside BB)
How did I exit ?
Looked at the CII TL for a break out (yellow circle) .Many times the break out will be in the CII before that in the price.

Good, but you had well-known support level plus BB which were good for exit.

Quote

Trade #4
-17 pips
(13 bar div ...all inside BB !)
played it similar to a box/range breakout

Not a good time to trade when waiting for the news. No liquidity and dealers pushed price up to sell orders.

Quote

Trade #5
finished BE
(17 bar div . some bar protrude BB ...last one touched BB)
Should/Could have exit at "a" for around +20 pips or at "b" ...previous Low support level (yellow line)
it's a M5 after all ...so must pay attention to previous H/L's

Good stuff. I would have done the same if I weren't going out.

Quote

Total (with luck ) +96
Looks that some of my entries are a bit late (?)
Will continue to experiment ...

It's about finding a timing that suits you.
  • #2,113
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:30pm Aug 19, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting david4u
+40pips
div within the BB , not even touching
but have worked great.......... so (?)
I waited for S/R breakout ...
The doji candle and the break of the 20 SMA could have been other entry triggers.

The general principle is: When the trend has turned, in this case 20 SMA turned into resistance, wait for pull-back to the 20 SMA and enter when momentum starts downwards.
  • #2,114
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:59pm Aug 19, 2010 12:59pm
There seems to be firm resistance above for both Euro and cable.

For cable the trendline support has now definitely turned into resistance.

For the Euro the 38.2% retracement of the last leg of the move up seems equally firm.

It seems like the journey will continue south, but will it be tomorrow or next week? It's a pity that I can't trade the afternoon tomorrow...
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  • #2,115
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:33pm Aug 19, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting medici
There seems to be firm resistance above for both Euro and cable.

For cable the trendline support has now definitely turned into resistance.

For the Euro the 38.2% retracement of the last leg of the move up seems equally firm.

It seems like the journey will continue south, but will it be tomorrow or next week? It's a pity that I can't trade the afternoon tomorrow...
Hi medici got stoped out of that last down move by a point 15pip stop is usually good enough for me but not today.
Would you mind telling me how you place your stops do you have a set stop that you use every trade? or have it at a level that if it broke that level you wouldn't want to be in it anylonger?

loads of pips to be made on that hourly range this week you think tomorow will be the decider on which way we break?

using 4hour TL as resistance like you say and seems to have gone in to a pennant.
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  • #2,116
  • Edited 1:53pm Aug 19, 2010 1:37pm | Edited 1:53pm
Quoting medici
Haha, no, wouldn't bet on the news. So I stayed with AUD and EUR.
Sorry missed this post the trade was tempting but could have just as easily done that move the other way after news.
Then it might not have been so tempting to me next time.
  • #2,117
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:52pm Aug 19, 2010 1:52pm
if you don't mind can you tell me where you would have placed your stops on these entrys if I'm asking to much just say.

1st was a mistake I forgot about the news at 3pm and normally stop trading 30min before news but I'm thinking a stop at 15675 would have been a good place to put it?

2nd got stoped by a pip I was tempted to put stop at top of previous swing high but didn't want to change my rules whilst in a trade.

I know its good having tight stop but I think as I was entering in a trading range stops need to be a bit bigger. As price will normally trade from high to low for a while before breaking out one way or another. As I thought we were going short my trade should really be valid until a breakout against me and RR would still be fine as was targeting 15575.

Sometimes I think it would be better to get stoped out on one 25 or so pip loss knowing the trade is no longer valid then get stoped out of 2 or 3 -15pips knowing you still wnat to be in.

If chart is to small say and I will enlarge it,
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  • #2,118
  • Aug 19, 2010 4:03pm Aug 19, 2010 4:03pm
Quoting reflex
Sorry missed this post the trade was tempting but could have just as easily done that move the other way after news.
Then it might not have been so tempting to me next time.
Indeed. Everywhere in the UK there's lots of empty retail space, even on Portobello Road, so where they get the 1.1% growth from would be interesting to know.
  • #2,119
  • Aug 19, 2010 4:20pm Aug 19, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting reflex
Hi medici got stoped out of that last down move by a point 15pip stop is usually good enough for me but not today.
Would you mind telling me how you place your stops do you have a set stop that you use every trade? or have it at a level that if it broke that level you wouldn't want to be in it any longer?
I usually use a 15 pip stop but sometimes 10. It depends on setup - as I typically enter at 'levels' 10-15 pips in the red is a sign that I misjudged my entry.

Quote

loads of pips to be made on that hourly range this week you think tomorow will be the decider on which way we break?

Tomorrow or Monday. Fridays are usually "risk-off" days so there may be a sell-off tomorrow...or not. But the direction of the break I have no doubt about - down. That move up to 1.29 today was pure fake out to pick up orders up there.
  • #2,120
  • Edited 4:53pm Aug 19, 2010 4:30pm | Edited 4:53pm
Quoting reflex
if you don't mind can you tell me where you would have placed your stops on these entrys if I'm asking to much just say.

1st was a mistake I forgot about the news at 3pm and normally stop trading 30min before news but I'm thinking a stop at 15675 would have been a good place to put it?

2nd got stoped by a pip I was tempted to put stop at top of previous swing high but didn't want to change my rules whilst in a trade.

I know its good having tight stop but I think as I was entering in a trading range stops need to be a bit bigger. As price...
Well....I wouldn't have entered there... If you enter in a range, as you are aware you did, you would have to place your stop above the range, say at 5675 as you say.

I don't know why you entered there, news or not? I thought you were a student of Dave V, who says that the first pullback is the best?

I haven't studied his thread in detail but to me that means that you wait for the first impulse move down (in this case) , and then enter on the first pullback. Then it's a matter of reading the PA to see when that pullback turns down again. See chart for "correct" LH entry. You can also draw the Fibonacci retracements of the impulse move to see where orders are hit. In this case it was at the 76.2% level.

Your other entry, similarly, is a bit premature. After retracing from the lower BB price is moving up and up and up and you enter in the middle of that up move. Why not wait for momentum to change direction and possibly for a lower high on the 1min?
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