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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #230,761
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:33am Aug 18, 2010 4:33am
OK, looks trappish to me and if my theory about news moves not being permanent holds, then we'll see below 133 again on GY and below 1.5550 on GU.

Let's see....
  • #230,762
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:47am Aug 18, 2010 4:47am
Quoting ukdaytrader
OK, looks trappish to me and if my theory about news moves not being permanent holds, then we'll see below 133 again on GY and below 1.5550 on GU.

Let's see....
it's possible. until we break above 15700 it's not confirmed bullish for me. we may get to 15670 area and drop from there. but I wouldn't be shorting again just yet...

geppy bounced perfectly off the daily ltl. if it closes above the decending TL and the 1H 50ema, short term outlook is bullish, perhaps we'll see 134.2, but 133.7 may prove tough.
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  • #230,763
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:58am Aug 18, 2010 4:58am
Quoting Beljevina
News got us over the DPP @ 1.5607. Glad I held my long from 1.555; yes it was underwater, but will now lock at 30 pips at least. Hoping for 1.566 in the next bit. Let's see how the M5 unfolds. Regardless, there must have been (another) whack of shorts stop losses taken out.
Out at 1.56670 for about 110 pips - had I not been underwater, that would have been 50 pips more.

That's 160 pip bounce due to the BoE. Who'da thunk. Stopping right around here would suit me fine. I'd expect supply & sellers around 1.57. Might do a light retrace short and see what awaits me after some shuteye.

Check the new daily - wonder what the next 11 hours will bring. Gotta get over that 1.57 of the last 2 dailies to confirm bullishness. I'd be very surprised if there's any more mileage left in sterling today, given the last many days of declines. Further bullishness will take a few days of trying.
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  • #230,764
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:31am Aug 18, 2010 5:31am
Quoting Fudomyo
it's possible. until we break above 15700 it's not confirmed bullish for me. we may get to 15670 area and drop from there. but I wouldn't be shorting again just yet...

geppy bounced perfectly off the daily ltl. if it closes above the decending TL and the 1H 50ema, short term outlook is bullish, perhaps we'll see 134.2, but 133.7 may prove tough.
Yep, nice simple analysis as always.

Today's move can be derived as Sterling strength, but there was little in the BoE minutes to facilitate such a move. Sure Aussie and Euro hitched a lift with the Pound, but their moves are reactionary rather than home driven.
I have been watching DX and UCh pretty closely this past few weeks and the following chart is telling me Dollar bulls are soon gunna get paid.

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  • #230,765
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:54am Aug 18, 2010 5:54am
Quoting ukdaytrader
I have been watching DX and UCh pretty closely this past few weeks and the following chart is telling me Dollar bulls are soon gunna get paid.

Attachment
I would tend to agree.

I believe the GU move was based on the CPI combined w/ the minutes. We didn't get as strong a reaction as I expected to the inflation figure yesterday, so it appears they were positioning down for today's move off BOE.

Quoting Fudomyo
...we may get to 15670 area and drop from there.
15668. close enough.
  • #230,766
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:36pm Aug 18, 2010 12:36pm
GU on daily closes still above the LTL in the long channel

GJ every day give a new channel on the H1

*thanks Raza for your early call @ 132.43
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  • #230,767
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:48pm Aug 18, 2010 12:48pm
this is my setup for GU weekly
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  • #230,768
  • Edited 1:33pm Aug 18, 2010 1:12pm | Edited 1:33pm
damn , didn't see this trend early while focusing on the TLs angels
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  • #230,769
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:01pm Aug 18, 2010 2:01pm
Today is one of those no matter which way you think its moving you are wrong days I think.
  • #230,770
  • Aug 18, 2010 3:05pm Aug 18, 2010 3:05pm
Quoting maanawi
damn , didn't see this trend early while focusing on the TLs angels
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post3955644

This is what I meant by the Lower TL...Fakey fakey....

So Daily is closing as a Dragonfly DOJI....

Weekly who knows...seems pointing Down...

4 Hr Bearish Divergence in Play...

Best to leave it alone for few more hours.IMO..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,771
  • Aug 18, 2010 3:18pm Aug 18, 2010 3:18pm
Nice View of u Raza,
i closed the trade early cause i didnt notice about this daily LTL but i think its now targeting the down trend line on daily at 135.** area and if its broke will head to the weekly channel HTL at 140.**
Quoting Raza
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post3955644

This is what I meant by the Lower TL...Fakey fakey....

So Daily is closing as a Dragonfly DOJI....

Weekly who knows...seems pointing Down...

4 Hr Bearish Divergence in Play...

Best to leave it alone for few more hours.IMO..
  • #230,772
  • Aug 18, 2010 3:34pm Aug 18, 2010 3:34pm
Looks like we have got a false breakout in gbp/jpy today. The pair broke through support and came back. If it goes to support level in european sesion I would be looking for opportunities to buy.
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  • #230,773
  • Aug 18, 2010 9:54pm Aug 18, 2010 9:54pm
Quoting Cod
Today is one of those no matter which way you think its moving you are wrong days I think.

I dont blame you, trading inside this channel (breathe wolfe) can be frustrating!

Good Luck



..
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  • #230,774
  • Aug 18, 2010 11:05pm Aug 18, 2010 11:05pm
The way it is looking we may be stuck in this range for a while. Perhaps a market psychologist should be brought in who specializes in range fixation for currency pairs.
  • #230,775
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:18am Aug 19, 2010 12:18am
Quoting Cod
The way it is looking we may be stuck in this range for a while. Perhaps a market psychologist should be brought in who specializes in range fixation for currency pairs.
anyone called me ?
  • #230,776
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:55am Aug 19, 2010 1:55am
Quoting forexlion
anyone called me ?
FXLION what happened to your Vouches...

I remembered Vouching you last year...its not there..

I just Vouched you again?

So tell us whats going on...with this Range.....Whats cookin?
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,777
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:55am Aug 19, 2010 1:55am
potential bull flag. waiting on UK Retail to move this.
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  • #230,778
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:59am Aug 19, 2010 1:59am
Quoting maanawi
Nice View of u Raza,
i closed the trade early cause i didnt notice about this daily LTL but i think its now targeting the down trend line on daily at 135.** area and if its broke will head to the weekly channel HTL at 140.**
Sorry did not reply to your Post...I had been away from PC all day...

What a painful market....
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,779
  • Aug 19, 2010 2:03am Aug 19, 2010 2:03am
Quoting Fudomyo
potential bull flag. waiting on UK Retail to move this.
yes its possible
  • #230,780
  • Aug 19, 2010 2:06am Aug 19, 2010 2:06am
Maybe a bull flag, but I would say no.
We pretty much retraced the entire news driven move of yesterday and GU looks particularly like it will retest the last low.

Unless the BoJ are 'active' right now, I think the Yen crosses look bearish too.

Staying flexible....
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