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1 minute momentum scalping

  • #141
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:16pm Aug 18, 2010 6:16pm
Was gonna say too in quiet market times (asian sesh) the 15 can be flat so 5m/1m possibly becomes the best system. Often it's not clear if price is ranging or it's just very low volume trading but the ranging princilpe of watching for big moves in direction of background trend could apply. Channels probablly super importnant here as any big moves out of quiet times would likely follow channel trend. Actually it would be interesting to know how often prices breaks out of a channel in low vol times during the asian session as opposed to when ny and london are open. Is high vol a prerequisite to a break of a channel/reversal of large trend?
  • #142
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:37pm Aug 18, 2010 6:37pm
Hey man only have a sec to post on here (making dinner) but I'm working on an index based on what you mentioned about the behavior of different pairs regarding a particular currency. In this case I'm making my index based on eurusd using 5 pairs at the moment, I'll try to post it later.

As for the non discretionary method your totally right it's one of those things that's gonna require lots of discretion and I like the 10 pip idea it will allow for better expectancy because of a better RRR.
  • #143
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:15pm Aug 18, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting frankkn
I have put almost all of the trades from this thread up on youtube. The beginning videos are different than the new ones. You can go here to my youtube channel to quickly find my most recent trade.

Chart Setup


  1. 5m candlestick chart with 5 and 12 EMAs, RSI (20)
  2. 1m Heiken Ashi with 8, 21EMAs, 50 SMA
  3. 30s Heiken Ashi with 8 and 21 EMAs



Rules/Sequence of Events

Enter with 5M trend. The trend...


what has been your success rate with this so far and how many pips have you earned ?
  • #144
  • Aug 18, 2010 8:13pm Aug 18, 2010 8:13pm
Quoting whatfx
what has been your success rate with this so far and how many pips have you earned ?
I'm up 317 pips for the week but it's not with the strategy from the first post I guess I should update that.

Maybe I should start a sentiment, RN, channel, BPC, 123 reversal thread?

I'll wait till I'm trading multiple full lots before that, until then I'm happy staying here trading a handful of mini lots.
  • #145
  • Aug 18, 2010 9:12pm Aug 18, 2010 9:12pm
Here's that "non-discretionary" entry I took during the asian session tonight.
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  • #146
  • Edited 9:02am Aug 19, 2010 7:59am | Edited 9:02am
Here is the index that's based on the euro strength vs the usd strength over the past hour. A value of 5 means that all of the currencies in the index show euro strength, a value of -5 means that all of the currencies in the index show usd strength.

Edit: Thanks to Steve for the idea!
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  • #147
  • Edited 9:01am Aug 19, 2010 8:02am | Edited 9:01am
Of the markets that are open at 9:00, here is the Appetite index. Min/Max is a value of -12/+12.

At (or 1 minute after) the open of the US equity markets, the AI was as averse as it could get.
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  • #148
  • Aug 19, 2010 8:42am Aug 19, 2010 8:42am
This is the euro FX contract (futures). It follows eurusd very closely even on the 1m.

It's interesting to note that price is range bound in yesterday's highest volume price level (purple). That means that yesterday the price that saw the most contracts traded was that area. We have news in 20 minutes and that's when I expect a breakout (hopefully south).

Also the VWAP (volume weighted average price-orange) is trapped in today's highest volume price level (two huge black lines). Some people who trade with market statistics theory would say that this is an even distribution (no skew north or south).

Just thought I'd throw in some volume stuff while we wait for the news.

Edit: The thin line that is above the VWAP is the 1st standard deviation of the VWAP.
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  • #149
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:05am Aug 19, 2010 9:05am
So with euro strength shown and equity aversion does that mean money might be comming out of equities but not neccessarily going into the usd? Perhaps Oil instead?

Like your jpy trade, that was a big pullback comming down from that trend but it took off again bigtime. Was that news supported or a technical trade?
  • #150
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:09am Aug 19, 2010 9:09am
The area I mentioned as the highest volume price level is known as the PVP (peak volume price). Market profile refers to this as the POC ( I think ).

The PVP just jumped up and is now above the VWAP which gives us a bearish skew.

In addition to that risk aversion is very strong and the euro index is showing euro weakness and dollar strength.
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  • #151
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:11am Aug 19, 2010 9:11am
Quoting stevexyg
Was that news supported or a technical trade?
Could be news but my decision was purely technical, just cuz I'm trying to get it to be as non-discretionary as possible.

As far as hot money going to other asset classes, I'm expecting (and hoping) for bearish momentum to break us out of this consolidation we've been seeing forever.

Edit:

BTW if you check back to the indices every 30 and 60 mins you can see the most recent figures. I'll keep them on the most recent page so at 10:31 I'll move it up to this page but normally I'll update the first posting (of the figures) each day.
  • #152
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:26am Aug 19, 2010 9:26am
We've got a higher low from 15th and strong support yesterday above that at 1.2780ish plus price has broken back up into 4day channel it left yesterday so I predict a breakout above 1.2920. But what do I know.

Been messing with graphics cards and monitors today so been a bit distracted.

Edit: Tea is sooo much more healthy than coffee containing far more minerals and flavonoids. Just brewing my 2nd cup of genmaicha
  • #153
  • Edited 10:58am Aug 19, 2010 9:31am | Edited 10:58am
AI
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  • #154
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:34am Aug 19, 2010 9:34am
Quoting stevexyg
We've got a higher low from 15th and strong support yesterday above that at 1.2780ish plus price has broken back up into 4day channel it left yesterday so I predict a breakout above 1.2920. But what do I know.

Been messing with graphics cards and monitors today so been a bit distracted.
One thing to remember about channels is that if we are in a large period of consolidation like we've been in for the past week, they are much weaker.

Much like a reversal candlestick pattern, channels are pretty invalid during an (overall) sideways move.

But that's not to say that she won't break north, that's totally possible.
  • #155
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:37am Aug 19, 2010 9:37am
Maybe we have been trying to reach this downward trend line and there's been too much selling pressure to go up to it, so we've slid sideways. Yet another perspective.

Edit:

And another
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  • #156
  • Aug 19, 2010 9:43am Aug 19, 2010 9:43am
Quoting stevexyg
We've got a higher low from 15th and strong support yesterday above that at 1.2780ish plus price has broken back up into 4day channel it left yesterday so I predict a breakout above 1.2920. But what do I know.

Been messing with graphics cards and monitors today so been a bit distracted.

Edit: Tea is sooo much more healthy than coffee containing far more minerals and flavonoids. Just brewing my 2nd cup of genmaicha
Oh and yes that 2920 level is gonna be really important!

Flavonoids! I like green and earl tea, but I have to use tea bags because I'm poor.
  • #157
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:02am Aug 19, 2010 10:02am
Quoting frankkn
One thing to remember about channels is that if we are in a large period of consolidation like we've been in for the past week, they are much weaker.

Much like a reversal candlestick pattern, channels are pretty invalid during an (overall) sideways move.

But that's not to say that she won't break north, that's totally possible.
Very good points thanks for that, there's also the question of how significant a break into a previously abandoned channel is...

The borders of this range are the ones to watch for sure and the bottom line got a good test earlier today and held and since LO the only way has been up so could be a re-test of north channel on the way. There's no more big news due today (?) so is price likely to stay in this range till close? Do you think only big news will break this consolidation pattern?
  • #158
  • Edited 11:14am Aug 19, 2010 10:03am | Edited 11:14am
PB

Edit:

Strong downward momentum late in the day.
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  • #159
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:10am Aug 19, 2010 10:10am
Quoting stevexyg
Very good points thanks for that, there's also the question of how significant a break into a previously abandoned channel is...

The borders of this range are the ones to watch for sure and the bottom line got a good test earlier today and held and since LO the only way has been up so could be a re-test of north channel on the way. There's no more big news due today (?) so is price likely to stay in this range till close? Do you think only big news will break this consolidation pattern?
I just checked the calendar and not only are we done for the day, but tomorrow (Friday) holds nothing in the way of big news. In fact, we aren't due to see anything huge until existing home sales next Tuesday.

I am curious to see what the effects will be of the lack of EUR and USD market movers. It is very possible that we will be in this range for a while.

This may be a good time to fine tune some ranging strategies during the afternoons (in NY).


Edit:

I forgot to mention that this is one of the lowest volume parts of the year (if not the lowest volume). It wouldn't be a bad idea to take some time off trading.

Unfortunately for me this is the last time for a while that I will be able to devote this much time to trading. School starts up Sept. 7th and that's also when I start training 8hrs a day for this (lame) job. I'll be at work from 7:30 to 3:30 and then class at night, till 9:30 on some nights.

Not lookin good. Maybe on the mornings following the nights that I don't have late class I'll be able to trade mid-london, and maybe sometimes I'll be able to pick up parts of the Asian session and maybe if I get a smart phone I'll be able to look for swing trades on break at work.
  • #160
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:10am Aug 19, 2010 10:10am
Quoting frankkn
Flavonoids! I like green and earl tea, but I have to use tea bags because I'm poor.
dude you have exquisite taste! My favourite teas are also green and earl grey. Twinnings do a very respectable earl grey tea bag if you can find it over there? You used to have to put yourself out to get green tea over here but now even ASDA (walmart owned) sell numerous blends of a passable naturally flavoured green tea (bags). Something like this genmaicha is loose, it's a bit messy and more time consuming than using a bag but also far more civilised! God bless tea and the Queen!
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