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vsa with Malcolm

  • #2,661
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:08pm Aug 18, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
What is everyone making of this low volume bar on the 1 hour gbpUsd chart?
thinking that market is done for day. 150 pip move up and 70 pip move down...and you want more ? greedy guy ....lol

I am waiting to see what happens in Asia. 1.5570 is key support for now.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,662
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:40pm Aug 18, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
thinking that market is done for day. 150 pip move up and 70 pip move down...and you want more ? greedy guy ....lol

I am waiting to see what happens in Asia. 1.5570 is key support for now.

No not greedy just interested, This really is a coin toss in my mind as to the next direction, this was a very minor news day so I dont expect a crazy asian session.
  • #2,663
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:45pm Aug 18, 2010 1:45pm
I don't contribute much here, mainly educating myself by reading excellent explanations on charts by HG, Malcolm, Intel.

HG, do you mind collaborating more about the delta zones which you used in many of your explanations esp. in Shamus' thread (I'm also in the middle of reading the pdf with your posts)?
I see that open/close of the long candle plays well as a S/R, but I'm not sure if I understand how to use it and what to look for when the price touches/crosses them.

Thanks guys. You're awesome.
  • #2,664
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:45pm Aug 18, 2010 1:45pm
hi Mal

Do you expect market will hit 1.5570 support and then will go up.
mean buying will start after littele drop to 5570.
  • #2,665
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:49pm Aug 18, 2010 1:49pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
No not greedy just interested, This really is a coin toss in my mind as to the next direction, this was a very minor news day so I dont expect a crazy asian session.

London has a bunch of news for Gu ... should be fun and volatile
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,666
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:57pm Aug 18, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting wajid
hi Mal

Do you expect market will hit 1.5570 support and then will go up.
mean buying will start after littele drop to 5570.

here is why 5570 is key

multi high volume pivots in the area
support form yesterday before Asia shake out
low tested today

Not sure if asia takes this down or not , suggest following vsa and a hulls on a 15 / 30 min for that , but was htinking if we do see a move down in asia to 5570 / 5550 and some form of stopping vol etc may be good buy opp

5625 is also critical . It is a mml on weekly 4.8 and also MP
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  • #2,667
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:10pm Aug 18, 2010 2:10pm
Thanks mal

See you in london session
  • #2,668
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:15pm Aug 18, 2010 2:15pm
mal can you commet on that 60 min bar you were referring to? something about what hg calls these inside bars
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  • #2,669
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:18pm Aug 18, 2010 2:18pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
mal can you commet on that 60 min bar you were referring to? something about what hg calls these inside bars
if you saw that in a regualr volume session ( thru London or us / london overlap ) then you could expect higher prices. HG has a name for these i think
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,670
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:03pm Aug 18, 2010 4:03pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
mal can you commet on that 60 min bar you were referring to? something about what hg calls these inside bars
In the highlighted case MFI showed three brown Fade bars in a row followed by three blue Fake bars.

The brown Fade bars mean Index Down, Volume Down: The market is idling, typically due to fading interest. (Often, this occurs towards the end of a trend. However, the direction of a next new trend could be in either direction.)

The blue Fake bars mean Index Up, Volume Down: The market is moving primarily in one direction, but there are no new participants generating additional volume. (While less volume is moving the price, the activity may be generated primarily on the floor, faking the actual off-floor market sentiment.) ~ http://www.tradingsolutions.com/func...tionIndex.html

The inside bar in question presaged or suggested a change in trend or a reversal. I think that as it's body was much longer than its shadows yet on decreased volume following a wide spread down bar with a mid close and subsequently followed by narrow spread Squat/Fade/Fake bars, then there probably was absorption supply consuming demand buying. This could have been a sell signal had the background weakness been significant or if OBV/Momentum were showing bearish divergence.
  • #2,671
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:37pm Aug 18, 2010 4:37pm
About Bag Holding: TW in MTM wrote:

"Bag Holding

As with the accumulation phase, professional money cannot just go into the market and buy just when they feel like it. This would simply put the price up against their own buying – market-makers would see the professional buying and rapidly mark the price up against them. If an opportunity arrives, which allows quick and advantageous involvement (to profit), the ‘smart money’ will seize the chance with vigour.

Bag-holding is the term used for one such opportunity. Traders who are on the wrong side of the market are selling in large amounts, usually under panic conditions. The professional money has become bullish, so they are now prepared to buy all of the stock that is being rapidly sold. As they are buying (or absorbing) all of the stock on offer, this prevents substantial down-moves during the day's trading (despite all the frantic selling) and finishes up with a narrow spread on a down-day. If the professional money had not been bullish, they would refuse to buy stocks on offer, which means that the spread would then be wide and down for the day.

In this situation, you would expect to see an immediate positive response the very next trading day (or bar), with the bar closing up. Buying has now overcome the supply. Conversely, if the market is not up the next day, this indicates that there was some residual buying, but more positive indications (green indicators) will be needed for the market to turn.

Generally, Bag Holding is seen after substantial declines have already taken place. Bad news will almost certainly be circulating, which creates panic selling. Those traders that have already seen losses will panic sell, to guard against losing more money. It is this panic selling that is rapidly absorbed, which accounts for the narrow spread."

**************************
This chart shows a Bag Holding Top if BH can be thought of as applying to a Swing High Top. Would this qualify as Bag Holding? Additional Buyers were acquiring EJ, yet the rate did not advance so as to produce a narrow spread bar with high volume. TW thought of BH as happening at bottoms where traders were unloading their losses while the market makers bought. Can this be applied to Swing High Tops where squeezed short holders are desperately covering and greedy bull long traders seek yet further gains while Smart Money is establishing massive new Short positions?
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  • #2,672
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:12pm Aug 18, 2010 5:12pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
mal can you commet on that 60 min bar you were referring to? something about what hg calls these inside bars
DIBS is a whole different trading style. You can learn more here.
It is worth while learning this method but only AFTER learning VSA.
  • #2,673
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:41pm Aug 18, 2010 5:41pm
look for any weakness GU into London ... if anything we should see some up moves being hit with sellersi n the 1.5625 to 1.5650 area

reason ... this 60 min getting hit with high volume on all up moves

$10 says retail numbers kill gu in London

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  • #2,674
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:13pm Aug 18, 2010 7:13pm
A professional trader isolates himself from the herd and has trained himself to become
a predator rather than a victim. He understands and recognises principles that drive the
markets and refuses to be mislead by good or bad news, tips, advice, brokers advice
and well meaning friends. When the market is being shaken-out on bad news he is in
there buying. When the Herd is buying and the news is good he is looking to sell.
You are entering a business that has attracted some of the sharpest minds around. All
you have to do is to join them.
Trading with the strong holders requires a means to
determine the balance of supply and demand for an instrument in terms of professional
interest, or lack of interest, in it. If you can buy when the professionals are buying
[accumulating or re-accumulating] and sell when the professionals are selling
[distributing or re-distributing] and you don't try to buck the system you are following,
you can be as successful as anybody else in the market.
- Tom Williams -
  • #2,675
  • Aug 18, 2010 11:35pm Aug 18, 2010 11:35pm
what is going on with eui and gu ?

mark down in asia again but NO buying interest

eu broke that bear flag on 4 hour and hulls on 4 hour has turned down
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,676
  • Aug 19, 2010 3:15am Aug 19, 2010 3:15am
Hi Malcolm,

I hope you are fine.

Monday morning I was looking at the weekly charts to see what the trend of the eur-usd was. To me the main trend was down however in the last weeks we have seen some pull back on the weekly charts. I fibed last week candle to see where price might pull back this week . Last week candle was huge, we are already thursday and price couldn't really past the 38,2% fib. This is not VSA but I like to see where price could react on a weekly chart.
Maybe, last week pa was too wide and the sm are not intrested in higher pull backs/ price....

Just my 2 cents...
Mel

Quoting malcolmb14
what is going on with eui and gu ?

mark down in asia again but NO buying interest

eu broke that bear flag on 4 hour and hulls on 4 hour has turned down
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  • #2,677
  • Aug 19, 2010 3:38am Aug 19, 2010 3:38am


And yet again VSA catches the move!

Hope you guys got some.. I'm still holding it because:

1) Today is thursday, my statistics tells me GU trends the most on Thursdays and Fridays

2) The way it shot up, I & SM ( ) already bought earlier and locking in others from getting in.

It's good to see VSA catching the moves .. 4th consecutive time on a row.
  • #2,678
  • Edited 5:14am Aug 19, 2010 5:09am | Edited 5:14am
Too bad I was away from trading today. Was a good case of deja-vu on GU. Volume dropped now, but no clear signal yet. We could play the range game in the next session maybe.

Oh and EU trendline is holding.
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  • #2,679
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:05am Aug 19, 2010 7:05am
Quoting wh1zz0


And yet again VSA catches the move!

Hope you guys got some.. I'm still holding it because:

1) Today is thursday, my statistics tells me GU trends the most on Thursdays and Fridays

2) The way it shot up, I & SM ( ) already bought earlier and locking in others from getting in.

It's good to see VSA catching the moves .. 4th consecutive time on a row.
The 1M GU chart from 15M prior to Better Than Expected Retail Sales Numbers showed accumulation executed with sublime subtlety. The short term divergence of Money Flow Index and Accumulation/Distribution lines from the On Balance Volume graph tipped off traders that SM were buying the down ticks.

I hope everybody has a nice day. Best Wishes for Big Profits.
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  • #2,680
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:21am Aug 19, 2010 7:21am
i am actually thinking that the people that control the market know that more people have gotten to know their techniques.It always happen in the market, when a lot of people get to know something that something stops working. Maybe their just shaking us out, or using other methods, Who knows?. Im kinda paranoid. Ive lost money this week.
Icy trader = cold hearted trades. no emotion whatsoever. Below zero.
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