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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #230,741
  • Aug 17, 2010 11:40pm Aug 17, 2010 11:40pm
Quoting PandoraBox


Anything happen to Fundamental ...we can see it at Technical chart.....

Depend on you...how to read the chart !
im with The other face of the coin, chart tell us the fund..s in the advance.
  • #230,742
  • Aug 17, 2010 11:41pm Aug 17, 2010 11:41pm
First up:

Inserted Video
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #230,743
  • Aug 17, 2010 11:42pm Aug 17, 2010 11:42pm
Quoting Beljevina
All I'm saying is one shouldn't trade one without any knowledge of the other; which one is more important and predominant in situations is difficult to determine.

And if someone fails at trading either technical or fundamental, it will usually be because they didn't have the right data, had wrong conclusions, or insufficient information, or, the market just did something else. The reality is, we never get to find out 100% what happened - we just make assessments, determine probability, and take that to the next trade.
I guess it all depends on what kind of mind you have, but I think it's a very bad idea to try to trade using both TA and FA. In fact, the prevailing wisdom states that you should either trade one or the other. Analysis paralysis springs to mind otherwise.

I'll admit that I think FA is a massively bogus concept perpetuated by the kinds of people with something to gain. Numerous curve fit arguments trotted out by the experts on TV as to why Dollar fell or Gold climbed $20. etc

As an experiment, have a look at the plethora of data which is released every week. Then calculate how many of those announcements had a lasting impact on the price. I've done this and the answer is practically none.

Long term fundamental analysis may have it's merits, but as Pandora says; all FA considerations can be seen in the price and charts.

JMHO of course.
  • #230,744
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:08am Aug 18, 2010 12:08am
Just like no one's TA trading system will meet with 100% approval by everyone, discussing the virtues of FA is in the same category IMO. It's key that each trader find the system and/or mixture that works for them. The results will ultimately show in their bank account.

I couldn't agree more on the FA trotted out by talking heads on TV: when they do this after the fact, it's basically a rolodex of reasoning, and selling/making something fit. After an event has happened, FA could be performed by a monkey. To me, FA is the assessment of news and stats beforehand, and then working that into the possible TA directions; whether one uses 1% FA, or just subliminal pieces, we're all susceptible to it IMHO.

I do agree that most news/numbers released have little immediate impact on the fx pair, even if it is an immediate 100 pip jump - too often it comes right back. But, add up the important economic stats, and the bearishness or bullishness can be expected, albeit too often with delay.

Not really too interested in pursuing this farther - what works for everyone is individual, and, we're probably getting stuff lost in the communication & translations.
  • #230,745
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:11am Aug 18, 2010 12:11am
Quoting ukdaytrader
....
Long term fundamental analysis may have it's merits, but as Pandora says; all FA considerations can be seen in the price and charts.

JMHO of course.
Its really more to do with how you interpret the charts. Frankly, its very easy in hindsight now to say that the charts were all pointing to a massive downturn since 2006-07. The only problem is at that time there were huge calls for bulls and bears on the both technical and fundies side. Ultimately i don't think this is a debate that will ever be settled. Best we can hope for is to find a balance whatever it is (even if its at either extremities) and do the best we can.
  • #230,746
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:16am Aug 18, 2010 12:16am
The fact is, all comments presented so far have, within them, merits that should not be ignored.

We are all correct, as Beljevina states, within the trading styles that we adopt.

Now; section regoup - we have a fight today with those on the other side. I don't do group hugs or cheek kissing, so backslaps all round - not lower than the middle of the back - and let's move out.

...trying to sit neutrally on this fence is difficult.



Quoting Beljevina
Just like no one's TA trading system will meet with 100% approval by everyone, discussing the virtues of FA is in the same category IMO. It's key that each trader find the system and/or mixture that works for them. The results will ultimately show in their bank account.

I couldn't agree more on the FA trotted out by talking heads on TV: when they do this after the fact, it's basically a rolodex of reasoning, and selling/making something fit. After an event has happened, FA could be performed by a monkey. To me, FA is the assessment of news and...
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #230,747
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:26am Aug 18, 2010 12:26am
Quoting Eulogy
Its really more to do with how you interpret the charts. Frankly, its very easy in hindsight now to say that the charts were all pointing to a massive downturn since 2006-07. The only problem is at that time there were huge calls for bulls and bears on the both technical and fundies side. Ultimately i don't think this is a debate that will ever be settled. Best we can hope for is to find a balance whatever it is (even if its at either extremities) and do the best we can.
OR..

Learn E.W

Then you may understand Candle sticks.. you may understand Fibs. You may understand symmetry. You may understand balance .. harmony..

Charts will start speaking ...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,748
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:37am Aug 18, 2010 12:37am
Quoting Raza
OR..

Learn E.W

Then you may understand Candle sticks.. you may understand Fibs. You may understand symmetry. You may understand balance .. harmony..

Charts will start speaking ...
lol, Pretcher may break ma balls for saying this but........

I've some understanding of EW, I just choose to not look let it confuse the hell outta me
  • #230,749
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:50am Aug 18, 2010 12:50am
Quoting Eulogy
lol, Pretcher may break ma balls for saying this but........

I've some understanding of EW, I just choose to not look let it confuse the hell outta me
There are many things that can be said...

But one thing I will say it depends on the personality..

E.W is complicated..but very interesting combined with Fibs...

Rules are on http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=201169
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,750
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:02am Aug 18, 2010 1:02am
Quoting Raza
OR..

Learn E.W

Then you may understand Candle sticks.. you may understand Fibs. You may understand symmetry. You may understand balance .. harmony..

Charts will start speaking ...
hi raza...any comments on EUR/GBP? where's the pound?seems that it's so weak...even though dollar haven't shown it real strength yet....as what we have thought yesterday.anything holding it up from your point of view?thanks in advance...cheers
  • #230,751
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:14am Aug 18, 2010 1:14am
Quoting Mr.Elliott
hi raza...any comments on EUR/GBP? where's the pound?seems that it's so weak...even though dollar haven't shown it real strength yet....as what we have thought yesterday.anything holding it up from your point of view?thanks in advance...cheers
I have not looked at the Dollar Today...Bias is still Bullish.. its not gonna happen in one day ...

But GBP looks like a Good Buy today.. UNTIL 130.50 GETS BROKEN..

So manage your risk...

I see 133.45 as first stop then 134.10- 40

135.45 will be very hard to break...May be too soon to say that...

My stop at B.E atm..

132.43 seems like a good entry..if below i am not trading this today..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,752
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:30am Aug 18, 2010 1:30am
Quoting Raza
I have not looked at the Dollar Today...Bias is still Bullish.. its not gonna happen in one day ...

But GBP looks like a Good Buy today.. UNTIL 130.50 GETS BROKEN..

So manage your risk...

I see 133.45 as first stop then 134.10- 40

135.45 will be very hard to break...May be too soon to say that...

My stop at B.E atm..

132.43 seems like a good entry..if below i am not trading this today..
thanks...same view here on the pound...got out with all the short yesterday...and looking for a bullish set-up on the dragon and cable...and still holding short on the EURGBP, let see how it goes today....good luck and green pips to you...cheers..
  • #230,753
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:36am Aug 18, 2010 1:36am
.....
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,754
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:39am Aug 18, 2010 1:39am
Quoting Raza
I have not looked at the Dollar Today...Bias is still Bullish.. its not gonna happen in one day ...

But GBP looks like a Good Buy today.. UNTIL 130.50 GETS BROKEN..

So manage your risk...

I see 133.45 as first stop then 134.10- 40

135.45 will be very hard to break...May be too soon to say that...

My stop at B.E atm..

132.43 seems like a good entry..if below i am not trading this today..
  • #230,755
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:43am Aug 18, 2010 1:43am
Quoting Beljevina
A very quick pop down to shakeout, and confirm lots of waiting buyers. Hope it don't let us down. Pa looking a little more 'resolved' with that dip down test.

Bought some more at that bottom support; am definitely now operating in BE mode. (OK, well 98% likely) GL to all.
News got us over the DPP @ 1.5607. Glad I held my long from 1.555; yes it was underwater, but will now lock at 30 pips at least. Hoping for 1.566 in the next bit. Let's see how the M5 unfolds. Regardless, there must have been (another) whack of shorts stop losses taken out.
  • #230,756
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:53am Aug 18, 2010 1:53am
so far the bottom held. 20 pips off target, but close enough. (price went for the cluster support area slightly above)

If we stay above the ltl on the 4H close, longs in play. Same topside goal 15700 that I posted last week for a break north, and take it from there. (targets above 15700 on older chart)

Quoting Fudomyo
15475 is ultimate support and correlates with the levels I posted earlier as the break out area.
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  • #230,757
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:04am Aug 18, 2010 2:04am
Quoting Raza
Me and Ashraf are the same person...lol

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...80#post3952880

Hidden Bearish Divergence on 4 hr G/J not looking Good for BULL...imo....
BUT G/U should get bullish soon..IMO...I am eyeing 154 level...

A shampoo formation on E/U.. Daily as well 130.50 to short for good R:R
Fudomyo

We have 3 more hours left to this insanity UP and Down...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,758
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:14am Aug 18, 2010 2:14am
Quoting Raza
Fudomyo

We have 3 more hours left to this insanity UP and Down...
lol... I know. It's great!

Not swing trading this. Keeping my goals tight to nearest SR.
If we test DPP again and bounce, will reload.

Check out the candle on the hourly... omg
  • #230,759
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:19am Aug 18, 2010 2:19am
Quoting Fudomyo
lol... I know. It's great!

Not swing trading this. Keeping my goals tight to nearest SR.
If we test DPP again and bounce, will reload.

Check out the candle on the hourly... omg
I took everything off at first target 133.45,

There is some serious Hidden Bearish Divergence on 4 hr ..RSI

132.75 is support now

Going to Zzzz...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,760
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:24am Aug 18, 2010 2:24am
Quoting Raza
I took everything off at first target 133.45,

There is some serious Hidden Bearish Divergence on 4 hr ..RSI

132.75 is support now

Going to Zzzz...


have good rest.
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