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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #230,721
  • Aug 17, 2010 9:07pm Aug 17, 2010 9:07pm
Quoting Srikanth
Expecting 132.50 level before any upside move...

almost done...
  • #230,722
  • Edited 9:46pm Aug 17, 2010 9:29pm | Edited 9:46pm
Quoting Beljevina
OK, trying a long right off the 23% fib at 1.5576.

EDIT: No sooner am I in and up, Ashraf twitters shorting is the better option here; chance are he's right. GY certainly not looking good.
Me and Ashraf are the same person...lol

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...80#post3952880

Hidden Bearish Divergence on 4 hr G/J not looking Good for BULL...imo....
BUT G/U should get bullish soon..IMO...I am eyeing 154 level...

A shampoo formation on E/U.. Daily as well 130.50 to short for good R:R
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,723
  • Aug 17, 2010 10:20pm Aug 17, 2010 10:20pm
brutal one......
Attached Image
  • #230,724
  • Edited 11:14pm Aug 17, 2010 11:03pm | Edited 11:14pm
Quoting Raza
So who was Buying POUND.?

Both G/U and G/J ... Last Support breached...
Got out of one, and let another go, currently -20 or so. Not liking this PA one iota. Current support should hold (murphy's law therefore will rule here, lol), and I'm sure we can count on Frankie to spice things up; I doubt it'll be down off the bat, unless of course the plan is for London to run it up prior to BoE minutes. I think we've got some stark differences that are visible amongst the traders in the 3 session geographies - there's a certain eeriness to the last few days on many pairs.

GU and to a lesser extent GJ dips are being bought, but sellers are whacking it every time it goes ~30 pips up. Looking at the daily and that channel ride up from 1.42, looks like it is indeed done, doesn't it. Ironically, I've been bearish on sterling since the 1.6 failure, but am surprised at the lack of substantial retraces. My attempts to long since cashing shorts in at 1.56 have been for 30-100 pips, but almost always am getting the lower end of that, with a partial cash in.

I don't think we're into kaboom territory, yet; the VIX and equity markets aren't really giving enough signals, and I don't think even the wisest of the big boys would like a kaboom when market participation is so low.

Another news crapshoot coming up at 9:30; not going to be an easy set of sessions. Here's Ashraf:

2010.08.17 21:07: WATCH BoE MINUTES: Wednesdays release of the minutes from the August MPC meeting could add to GBP losses. The currency has been hit hard after Tuesdays unexpectedly weak July CPI (see earlier IMT for detail). The inflation story is a big deal. For the past 4 months, strong UK inflation was the main reason why Andrew Sentance of the BoE has been calling for rate hikes . and there were even some expectations that other members would join him. This has also been the MAIN REASON TO THE RALLY IN GBPUSD since June---UK being the only country w/ above target inflation, therefore, the one with most realistic chances of any near term rate hike. HOWEVER, Tuesdays smaller than exp CPI (See previous IMT) changes much of those expectations, which explains Tuesdays GBP selloff, which was a textbook fundamental sell-off, falling against everything even against the weak YEN. Losses were sharpest against AUD and CAD as commodity currencies were especially boosted by Wall Streets rally, which I warned about in yesterdays IMT based on the BULLISH HAMMER CANDLE in indices. The BoE minutes will likely show Andrew Sentence to reiterate his vote for a rate hike, but just in the unlikely event that he is joined by another dissenter, we could see sharp pop higher in GBPUSD. See prev IMT on GBP technicals


And low and below at time of writing ... Look Ma, Buyers! (Here again, enter Murphy's Law, lol!)
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  • #230,725
  • Aug 17, 2010 11:13pm Aug 17, 2010 11:13pm
Quoting Beljevina
Got out of one, and let another go, currently -20 or so. Not liking this PA one iota. Current support Here's Ashraf:

. This has also been the MAIN REASON TO THE RALLY IN

I dont know about fundamentals...as I am more of a Technical trader...

But G/J I may attempt to Buy at 132.48- 43 .. if there with stop below 132..

Its not a Good idea but ....Otherwise 130.70ish can happen with further losses to 129- 128...

If you make a Trendline from 126xx up touching 130.78...right now we are half an inch away from breaking it..then again we may have a Fakey..there..so just for that I may buy from 132.40ish...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,726
  • Aug 17, 2010 11:21pm Aug 17, 2010 11:21pm
Quoting Raza
I dont know about fundamentals...as I am more of a Technical trader...

But G/J I may attempt to Buy at 132.48- 43 .. if there with stop below 132..

Its not a Good idea but ....Otherwise 130.70ish can happen with further losses to 129- 128...

If you make a Trendline from 126xx up touching 130.78...right now we are half an inch away from breaking it..then again we may have a Fakey..there..so just for that I may buy from 132.40ish...
I though you and Ashraf were the same person?!

Am only mentioning that because I'd say Ashraf is 75%+ fundamental and the remainder technical. I saw him in Toronto, and his fundamental knowledge and background is impressive; out of ~2hrs, we spent perhaps <15 minutes talking/drawing technicals, and, they were just the most basic and very high timeframes. Pretty much demonstrates to me that the fundamental knowledge is as important and more important (IMO) than technical stuff. So ... Ashraf and I are the same person ... !
  • #230,727
  • Aug 17, 2010 11:27pm Aug 17, 2010 11:27pm
Quoting Beljevina
I though you and Ashraf were the same person?!

Am only mentioning that because I'd say Ashraf is 75%+ fundamental and the remainder technical. I saw him in Toronto, and his fundamental knowledge and background is impressive; out of ~2hrs, we spent perhaps <15 minutes talking/drawing technicals, and, they were just the most basic and very high timeframes. Pretty much demonstrates to me that the fundamental knowledge is as important and more important (IMO) than technical stuff. So ... Ashraf and I are the same person ......
Fundamentals are important as well....

But I dont have the brain for it so I stick to technical....

By the way 132.43 is also 23.6% fib...(130.78 - 137.77) Usually a wave B limits

So if wave A was till 137.77 then wave B...132.43...wave C UP ...May be... Not so confident about it though...

I will have the Move confirmed when 1 HR closes above 14 weighted moving average....
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,728
  • Aug 17, 2010 11:37pm Aug 17, 2010 11:37pm
How come everybody on this thread is talking about trading. I thought this was the fight thread?

Good insight on the Gbp funies, thanks.
  • #230,729
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:32am Aug 18, 2010 12:32am
You're all wrong.

Take the tea leaves for London, and the coffee beans for NY, and the chicken bones for Tokyo.

I'm tellin' ya, you can't go wrong.

Ashraf is taking a bit of beating here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=223938

Did start to take a look at his website sometime back, but then he went all twitter nonsense thingy/subscription stuff. Pff... another to go this way.

I'm not saying that there is anything wrong with it, but certain transformations on his site struck me as abruptly disingenuous.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #230,730
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:36am Aug 18, 2010 12:36am
considered as w pattern?
bought 132.88
sl below trendline 132
comments welcome
good trades
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  • #230,731
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:48am Aug 18, 2010 12:48am
Quoting Beljevina
I though you and Ashraf were the same person?!

Am only mentioning that because I'd say Ashraf is 75%+ fundamental and the remainder technical. I saw him in Toronto, and his fundamental knowledge and background is impressive; out of ~2hrs, we spent perhaps <15 minutes talking/drawing technicals, and, they were just the most basic and very high timeframes. Pretty much demonstrates to me that the fundamental knowledge is as important and more important (IMO) than technical stuff. So ... Ashraf and I...
reason ? as per attach link
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=246053

normal circumtance is fine. But how about current situition? Fundamental can use/trust? Look at the gold right now. Still good on the fundamental?

just my 2 cent
  • #230,732
  • Aug 18, 2010 12:49am Aug 18, 2010 12:49am
eye pain lol , a lot of trend lines .. but this how price moved and still in..
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  • #230,733
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:09am Aug 18, 2010 1:09am
Here we are 132.43......
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,734
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:13am Aug 18, 2010 1:13am
I would contend that fundamentals - and I mean major fundamentals that banks, hedge funds etcetera will react to - are often anticipated/predicted before publication, and can sometimes be seen in charts. Important fundamentals dictate overall direction. The severity of the fundamental will determine if market direction will change by the week, month, or year.

Technicals - charts etcetera - are what we all use to enter into the momentum of market direction. Again, the use of MM, and TP targets determine how long a trader will remain in a trade.

If one is looking for, say 50 pips a day, technicals are far more useful to know - assuming no surprise news is released for the day. Of course, the market throws the spikes and fakes out there to capture these small trades, and then follows through on the direction as determined by the direction of the market due to more important fundamentals.

This is why I prefer to enter on 4hr charts if possible, using reasonable MM, whilst trying to be aware of the important fundamentals that may underwrite the market direction as determined by higher TF technicals/major support resistance regions.

The problem with fundamentals; well, one can read an awful lot of news in a day, and become jaded to the point of questioning what they perceive to be the true market direction. This, in turn, forces the trader to doubt their current positions. Of course, a look at higher TFs may help here.

Some traders prefer to take quick trades that may only last an hour, and make good money from this. More power to them, but those that survive this consistently are pretty sharp on the charts.

Whichever way one cuts it, a mix of fundamentals and technicals is very helpful.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #230,735
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:14am Aug 18, 2010 1:14am
Quoting Raza
Here we are 132.43......
intresting mah
  • #230,736
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:19am Aug 18, 2010 1:19am
Quoting Beljevina

Pretty much demonstrates to me that the fundamental knowledge is as important and more important (IMO) than technical stuff.


Anything happen to Fundamental ...we can see it at Technical chart.....

Depend on you...how to read the chart !
  • #230,737
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:21am Aug 18, 2010 1:21am
Quoting maanawi
intresting mah
Hope F*** KER holds if not then 132.00 ..

But the calculations are best at 132.43...

Guys Both Fundamentals and technicals are Important....

Lets just make some moola...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #230,738
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:22am Aug 18, 2010 1:22am
Quoting grashid
reason ? as per attach link
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=246053

normal circumtance is fine. But how about current situition? Fundamental can use/trust? Look at the gold right now. Still good on the fundamental?

just my 2 cent
All I'm saying is one shouldn't trade one without any knowledge of the other; which one is more important and predominant in situations is difficult to determine.

And if someone fails at trading either technical or fundamental, it will usually be because they didn't have the right data, had wrong conclusions, or insufficient information, or, the market just did something else. The reality is, we never get to find out 100% what happened - we just make assessments, determine probability, and take that to the next trade.
  • #230,739
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:24am Aug 18, 2010 1:24am
Quoting Raza
Hope F*** KER holds if not then 132.00 ..

But the calculations are best at 132.43...
lol Raza this is the problem know from where to enter but where its ends ?!
  • #230,740
  • Aug 18, 2010 1:32am Aug 18, 2010 1:32am
Quoting Beljevina
All I'm saying is one shouldn't trade one without any knowledge of the other; which one is more important and predominant in situations is difficult to determine.

And if someone fails at trading either technical or fundamental, it will usually be because they didn't have the right data, had wrong conclusions, or insufficient information, or, the market just did something else. The reality is, we never get to find out 100% what happened - we just make assessments, determine probability, and take that to the next trade.
ok..but everything is in ur chart if u saw it..as what PB say..yes he is 100% true.
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