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Rufus

  • #341
  • Aug 12, 2010 11:46pm Aug 12, 2010 11:46pm
Quoting Rufus
This evening I will have to be careful with shorts.
German GDP at the FO bound to be good - could be the spark for a retrace long I have been looking for.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #342
  • Aug 12, 2010 11:53pm Aug 12, 2010 11:53pm
Quoting The Fool
German GDP at the FO bound to be good - could be the spark for a retrace long I have been looking for.

I could be a long run ta-boot.

Inserted Video


Funny Toby Keith video 'Trailerhood' Cute blond also
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #343
  • Aug 13, 2010 2:34am Aug 13, 2010 2:34am
I am going to call it a week, and what a good week it was.

I am only going to short the GU and EU as that is still my trend. Right now I have to force something to put on a position and we know that is not good.
The trend is a friend till the end. At the end she can be a fickle bi**h. I don't think this is the end but it is trying to be. 3 black crows on Daily GU have me spooked for any longs.

I had a short signal for EU but not liking all the erratic PA. Pluss my stop woud be over 40, I shoot for about 20 on a 5m chart entry.

Also have to build a built-in headboard and bookcases tomorrow.

So I am calling it a night. Will evaluate things over the weekend.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #344
  • Aug 13, 2010 8:50am Aug 13, 2010 8:50am
Quoting Rufus
I am going to call it a week, and what a good week it was.

I am only going to short the GU and EU as that is still my trend. Right now I have to force something to put on a position and we know that is not good.

I had a short signal for EU but not liking all the erratic PA. Pluss my stop woud be over 40, I shoot for about 20 on a 5m chart

Rufus
Well, If could have stayed up for another hour and a half I could have got my signal. It is great to see things working even if I am not in the position.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #345
  • Aug 13, 2010 12:45pm Aug 13, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting Rufus
I have been out for a few hours and I fliped on the computer and saw..... HOLY CRAP...430 pip run with tokyo.... I was starting to look at news and scratch my head.........OH.......5 digits........43pips. I was frantic for a minute. Now just feal like an idiot.

Some day I will get used to the extra digit.

I am sure none of you have ever done this..


Rufus
Hehe, same here, I always want to turn off the last digit and it simply useless for retail traders as we dont really need to count on this minor thing.

Eric
  • #346
  • Aug 13, 2010 6:44pm Aug 13, 2010 6:44pm
Recap for the week

All profitable positions this week were with the EU.


Total of 8 positions taken, 2 I closed out flat, 6 wins. No losses.

One was a long on the EU. All the others were shorts.

One of the flats was on the USDCAD. It finally did move about 3 hours after I took off the position. The reason I took it was because it was cutting into my risk to take trades on the EU that was moving. Also the technical reason for the position was disappearing and was moving toward a news driven move.

I divide up each trade in 3 equal parts with 3 targets. So my pip count will be for each part.

#1 236 pips
#2 270 pips
#3 411 pips

1 scalp for 32 pips.

A great week for me.

Next week I will probably be trading a little less. I have some work coming in I need to do. Also my wife and daughter will be back. (I don’t have a private place to trade so at times there are additional distractions).

A thanks goes out to all those who have contributed to my understanding of the Forex market. And especially Price Action.

Trade well all

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #347
  • Aug 14, 2010 10:09am Aug 14, 2010 10:09am
It is time for me to start laying out my plan for next week.

My long term views for the currencies haven’t changed much. I don’t believe the Euro is out of the soup yet. From what I have been reading it appears that Germany is single-handedly pulling the EU economy to growth.To me this is like California trying to single-handedly fix the USA. France saw a little growth but the rest for the most part were seeing contraction.

So how does this relate to me?

All intraday trading is with the 1h trend. So that will determine which direction most of my positions will be in. Long or short. This week I will be starting to look more closely for longer term swing positions. With this in mind the trades will be in the direction of the weekly chart. This is where I feel having a little understanding of the economies will benefit. So as it sits now swing positions will be shorts.


The information below is part of some things I had been reading. Some may find it interesting.

Preliminary figures on Thursday showed Greek GDP falling 1.5 per cent in the second quarter, the seventh consecutive period of contraction. Italy grew at 0.4 per cent, and Spain and Portugal at a mere 0.2 per cent.
As a result, Germany alone accounts for the bulk of the expected rise in growth across the entire region.

Nevertheless, GDP increased by 1.0% in both the euro area (EA16) and the EU27 during the second quarter of 2010,compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2010, growth rates were +0.2% in both zones.
Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.7% in both the euro area and the EU27 in the second quarter of 2010, after +0.6% and +0.5% respectively in the previous
quarter.

That is also the point at which the bloc starts to create jobs, according to labour market experts. Unemployment in the eurozone has been stable at 10 per cent in the past few months and has yet to experience a meaningful decline.

The last two quarters have seen quarter-on-quarter growth well beneath that figure – even with Friday’s revisions – partly because unusually harsh weather in Germany hampered economic activity.

But few expect the heady rate of growth during the second quarter to be carried through to the end of the year.

With consumer confidence still relatively low in Europe, there has been little sign so far of a pick up in domestic demand, which economists are looking for as a signal of a sustained recovery. But appetite for consumption is likely to be curtailed by fiscal tightening measures being unveiled in most eurozone member states.


So anyway. This has been some of my mornings reading.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #348
  • Aug 14, 2010 10:13am Aug 14, 2010 10:13am
I was messing with Fibonacci time zones on a monthly chart. This has been some intriguing information. I know a lot of people think fib time zones are a joke. But like I have said I am a fibaholic. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.


If I can throw a fib on it I will do it. I don't trade with Fib time zones, just trying to add another piece to the puzzle.

Rufus
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #349
  • Aug 14, 2010 10:36am Aug 14, 2010 10:36am
My revised EU monthly chart.
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #350
  • Aug 14, 2010 11:39am Aug 14, 2010 11:39am
Potential long term swing on GU.

I will keep an eye on this one. The speed of the down treend on the daily chart has me a bit concerned. 3 black crows is never a good sign.

Rufus
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #351
  • Aug 14, 2010 1:14pm Aug 14, 2010 1:14pm
For all of you that haen't seen this.........A lesson in song........About trading of course

Inserted Video
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #352
  • Aug 15, 2010 8:33am Aug 15, 2010 8:33am
Quoting Rufus
For all of you that haen't seen this.........A lesson in song........About trading of course

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wU1pD4xPe2M

heheheh
  • #353
  • Aug 15, 2010 10:35am Aug 15, 2010 10:35am
Dollar Index

The index is climbing off the support as was expected. The resistance level above also corresponds with the 38.2 fib, at 83.40. So the way I see it, the index is sitting at a key level.

For those who may not know the weighting of the index here it is.

(EUR), 57.6% weight
(JPY), 13.6% weight
(GBP), 11.9% weight
(CAD), 9.1% weight
(SEK), 4.2% weight
(CHF) 3.6% weight.

I was looking for information on how the index was weighted before 1999 when the Euro came around. But have not found it yet. Ah well not that important. Sometimes I just like to know the history of things.
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #354
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:01am Aug 15, 2010 11:01am
Now for oil.

Trading at the bottom of the channel at 61.8 fib. So good possibility of a bounce here. This effects every currency and some more than others. Japan imports all their oil so it has a tendency to hurt theirs. But Canada is a big exporter so it helps the Loonie.

Ken posted on his thread a little artical on how the strength in the Yen has been hurting Japan. To weak or to strong hurts economies. So they float

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1522
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #355
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:21am Aug 15, 2010 11:21am
Gold.

This has been in a strong move up for some time now. If I were to make a guess we will hit 1300 Sept or Oct. People all over the world are buying up both gold and silver. I would like to see some true supply numbers in relation to the true demand. Most of what we see in charts is the effect of spot and futures where no gold is changing hands. Where I live there is a coin dealer who at times has no gold to sell, all had been bought. The actual supply of physical gold and silver I believe is getting smaller by the day due to people saving it.


Well this should be the last chart for a while. Need to go spend time with the family... If I don't keep this in balance, it screws up my trading at night. ........head clear of distractions...

Good trading to all

Rufus
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #356
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:26am Aug 16, 2010 2:26am
Entry short EU 8/16 12:05 am

1.2808

So far not looking to good. I placed my stop a little high to get it above a potential resistance level. About 26 pips.

Rufus
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #357
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:38am Aug 16, 2010 2:38am
Quoting Rufus
Entry short EU 8/16 12:05 am

1.2808

So far not looking to good. I placed my stop a little high to get it above a potential resistance level. About 26 pips.

Rufus

Still hanging in there...Bounced off 200ma and resistance from previous pivot high.

------------------------

Hit stop
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #358
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:45am Aug 16, 2010 2:45am
i went long at the FO around .2790 and 1/4 of that is still running. Been scalping like I do for about 35 pips. Expecting a pullback below the LO rate @ .2812 but I am only looking to scalp long now into something that will run. I have been looking high and low for that USD weakness & I know it will turn up here pdq....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #359
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:52am Aug 16, 2010 2:52am
i got short too at the bounce of the 200SMA, also mid-pivot there.
it doesn't totally look good for now but let's hope. target 1.2805 close to daily pivot for 20 pips.
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Lorenzo
  • #360
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:55am Aug 16, 2010 2:55am
Great journal.

Keep up the good work and many pips to you mate.

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