Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 99 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #1,961
  • Aug 15, 2010 4:56am Aug 15, 2010 4:56am
Quoting Auron112
I've been taking a look at this CI indicator this weekend and I'm really liking it compared to my usual RSI....
Glad you like it!

Good question. If the BB is close to flat or if price is hitting a 'level' (in the chart posted by you 1.2934 was the daily high 22 July) then I would enter at that peak/level, if not then better safe than sorry and wait for price action to confirm the reversal.

In the example posted I had forgotten about the 22 July high and the 5min doji that conformed with the trendline formed by the two previous highs was good enough confirmation. But as a rule I wouldn't wait for 5min bars to close.

I hope that answers the question.
  • #1,962
  • Aug 15, 2010 10:59am Aug 15, 2010 10:59am
As I'm heading to sea for a few days, I will not be posting this week, except for these two daily charts......

We can easily see that € is the weaker and last weeks action made a large bearish engulfing candle - a big marubozo - with the first support at 1,2729 - just below Fridays close.


Cable also had a -smaller - weekly bearish engulfing candle, but has support at 1.5521 / 5471, well before it reaches into the normal fib decison zone. Its lower APF line is also there.


I wish you all a profitable week.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro aug 15 dly.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cable aug 15 dly.gif Size: 22 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,963
  • Aug 15, 2010 2:31pm Aug 15, 2010 2:31pm
Have a wonderful cruise, Islander. You will be missed this week.

Here's a couple of charts on the Aussie. It completed a head and shoulder pattern Friday, and more downside seems to be on the cards.

The key area 8850-70 is nearby and could provide some easy pips on the way down there.

At the same time CI is oversold, in reverse divergence territory, and close to support on the daily chart which, in line with the SPX (with which AUD is strongly correlated) analysis, points towards a bounce from mentioned level.

Should 8850 break, mayhem may ensue. When Aussie falls it's usually a sharp fall. See, for example the May drop.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud h4 15 aug.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud daily 15 aug.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #1,964
  • Aug 15, 2010 2:49pm Aug 15, 2010 2:49pm
CI is extremely oversold on the daily - it hasn't been lower since October 08 - so the support level mentioned by Islander or the 50% level of the 1.2151-3334 range at 1.2143 could provide the basis for a retracement early in the week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro daily 15 aug.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #1,965
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:54pm Aug 15, 2010 11:54pm
GM - interesting action overnight that supports the hypothesis of a bounce. All three pairs at resistance now, however, and Aussie below last week's low. It seems like cable could have the largest upside potential.

SPX resting above last week's low after a dip below.

Interesting morning ahead...
  • #1,966
  • Aug 16, 2010 1:16am Aug 16, 2010 1:16am
1.2730 previous turning point, at least on m5 chart in history

Then great action round the monthly pivot!
  • #1,967
  • Aug 16, 2010 1:44am Aug 16, 2010 1:44am
oops forgot to mention the 38f of the whole swing up!
  • #1,968
  • Aug 16, 2010 1:54am Aug 16, 2010 1:54am
Quoting Sim
oops forgot to mention the 38f of the whole swing up!
What is that? A bra size?
  • #1,969
  • Aug 16, 2010 1:58am Aug 16, 2010 1:58am
Quoting medici
What is that? A bra size?
That must have been a BIG swing.
  • #1,970
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:07am Aug 16, 2010 2:07am
Quoting medici
What is that? A bra size?
LOL Soon as the skipper leaves port the place degenerates
Money grows on the tree of persistence
  • #1,971
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:17am Aug 16, 2010 2:17am
Quoting ozmacca
LOL Soon as the skipper leaves port the place degenerates
hahahaah!
  • #1,972
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:25am Aug 16, 2010 2:25am
Quoting medici
What is that? A bra size?
LOL...
too big for my taste
  • #1,973
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:35am Aug 16, 2010 2:35am
We all know how it is early first thing in the morning fellas
  • #1,974
  • Aug 16, 2010 3:19am Aug 16, 2010 3:19am
Quoting ozmacca
LOL Soon as the skipper leaves port the place degenerates
LOL I thought I should keep up the skipper's tradition of posting 1min charts. I even traded off of them today!

Here are my trades today so far.

Missed tha cable fall, which came as a surprise. Now down below long-term trend-line but still above last week's lows.

For the I don't knwo which time in recent weeks Euro ends the upmove with a triple top along an upper trend-line with divergence using any of your momentum measures. As the skipper would say, it would be rude not to short it!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable 1m 16 aug.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 1m 16 aug.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #1,975
  • Aug 16, 2010 3:38am Aug 16, 2010 3:38am
Quoting supremeChaos
LOL...
too big for my taste
Mine too, definitely! I wonder if Sim is a bit of a fetishist in this area?
  • #1,976
  • Aug 16, 2010 3:57am Aug 16, 2010 3:57am
Hi Medici and all just thought I would post my trades for the day.
I got out to early on the 1st no idea why as hour was just about to close as a bear bar.
And the 2nd trade I point out I didn't do just showing as it was a nice LH with traped longs in the market that should add strenght to the short.

Cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-08-16_0943.jpg Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-08-16_0943_001.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #1,977
  • Aug 16, 2010 4:00am Aug 16, 2010 4:00am
The 1min trading was an experiment that I will not continue with.

The way to trade is from divergence to divergence on the 5min using lines, levels, and bands for confirmation. See attached charts.

The 1min is good for getting in on a trend that's already in motion, but for me that's it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 5m 16 aug.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cable 5m 16 aug.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #1,978
  • Aug 16, 2010 4:02am Aug 16, 2010 4:02am
Quoting reflex
Hi Medici and all just thought I would post my trades for the day.
I got out to early on the 1st no idea why as hour was just about to close as a bear bar.
And the 2nd trade I point out I didn't do just showing as it was a nice LH with traped longs in the market that should add strenght to the short.

Cheers
Well done, mate As for the topic of holding on, see my previous post...
  • #1,979
  • Aug 16, 2010 4:03am Aug 16, 2010 4:03am
Quoting medici
Mine too, definitely! I wonder if Sim is a bit of a fetishist in this area?
Who isn't

Scalped the way down on EU.. strange seeing that repetition of the triple top
  • #1,980
  • Aug 16, 2010 4:27am Aug 16, 2010 4:27am
Quoting medici
The 1min trading was an experiment that I will not continue with.

The way to trade is from divergence to divergence on the 5min using lines, levels, and bands for confirmation. See attached charts.

The 1min is good for getting in on a trend that's already in motion, but for me that's it.
I have been trying to stay indicator free but this looks too good!
How come you will not continue with the 1min?
exit to early?
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