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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #761
  • Aug 14, 2010 7:47pm Aug 14, 2010 7:47pm
EU, this week eu should move lower into the pink lows but i don't see that happening until later in the week, first I see a reversal of minimum 140 pips. I won't be trading the longside though, just waiting for a good shorting position.
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  • #762
  • Aug 14, 2010 7:59pm Aug 14, 2010 7:59pm
This week the dow traded as expected, the move up from last Fridays green lows and into the green highs on Monday, then the sell down and breaking the lows on Wednesday. To confirm more weakness I would have preferred that Thursday traded up into the midpoints at 10411 and then sold down again on Friday breaking out of the green lows.

But since Thursday and Friday were both consolidating days this opens up the possibility that next week finds support on the green lows early in the week and then consolidates between the midpoints and lows for the rest of the week. Another break of the green lows is needed to confirm weakness.
I see the dow trading down into 9124 this quarter but without a breakout it might be a slow unwind rather than a short sharp move.
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  • #763
  • Aug 15, 2010 5:39pm Aug 15, 2010 5:39pm
Part profits taken on au at 8875, holding the rest though as it looks like it will continue through 8860-70 support area at this stage.
  • #764
  • Aug 15, 2010 6:39pm Aug 15, 2010 6:39pm
I decided to close out all au shorts at 8860, that support will be tough to break especially given the position of the dollar index which should pull back around to approx 82.3 before going higher. If price continues down I will short on a break of 8860.
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  • #765
  • Aug 16, 2010 12:12am Aug 16, 2010 12:12am
Short orders placed at 1.2904. first target 1.2658.
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  • #766
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:37pm Aug 16, 2010 9:37pm
He Amy. Big fan. You are a very smart trader. I can see that you are a person to follow and learn from. I am currently seeing these dollar pairs show that the dollar should get stronger. There has been daily div on UJ and you are also thinking short on EU. I am long UJ right now and plan on holding it for a bit until this div plays out. I got in at 84.95 and have added to it at 85.20. I had a short pending on EU but I moved it up because of your entry. I am already in UJ so I dont need the trade. I still have 1% to trade with. Swiss has been choppy but is bottomed out. The GU weekly candle is bearish so this retrace has been a nice chance to get in a short. Oh geez I forgot to ask. Do you even want to post this here? I forgot to ask because this is your journal and I doubt anyone wants to hear from someone less experienced than you. Appreciate your thoughts.
  • #767
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:24pm Aug 16, 2010 10:24pm
Quoting Josh44
He Amy. Big fan. You are a very smart trader. I can see that you are a person to follow and learn from. I am currently seeing these dollar pairs show that the dollar should get stronger. There has been daily div on UJ and you are also thinking short on EU. I am long UJ right now and plan on holding it for a bit until this div plays out. I got in at 84.95 and have added to it at 85.20. I had a short pending on EU but I moved it up because of your entry. I am already in UJ so I dont need the trade. I still have 1% to trade with. Swiss has been choppy...
Hi Josh

You are welcome to write in my journal anytime you like.

For eu that was my price based off the 4hr midpoints for Monday, now that it's Tuesday those have moved down to 1.2893. Tuesdays daily high target is 1.2876 which means price should make it at least that high today and I have an 80 pip swing top at 1.2884. Based on that I am moving my order down to 1.2884.

I don't know yet if this area will be an exact top so I will be going in with small positions to start with. It could trade up as far as the 1.2950 area.

Two things to be aware of when looking at this short

1) when a week begins with a counter trend move, that move usually lasts 2 days so a better short might be off a higher daily open on Wednesday.

2) AU and GU currently look very bullish, I think au could trade back up towards 91. I am currently long this pair and don't see any reason to tp yet. Also indicies currently look bullish, asian markets are currently breaking all resistance levels.
  • #768
  • Aug 17, 2010 2:09am Aug 17, 2010 2:09am
I cancelled my short order for eu before it got hit, I think this has a bit to go up yet. Not sure of a target at this stage but will keep watching it over the next few days.
  • #769
  • Aug 17, 2010 3:33pm Aug 17, 2010 3:33pm
AU, I'm looking to exit my long at 9089 which will be an 80 pip top with a pink resistance. From here I will start shorting again between 9089 and the green highs which for Wednesday are currently sitting at 9108. First target will be an 80 pip reversal.
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  • #770
  • Aug 17, 2010 3:37pm Aug 17, 2010 3:37pm
I am going to place short orders on eu at Wednesdays green highs, currently 1.2947 but this number is not confirmed until the close of the current 4hr bar. If price keeps trading above here then eu is not bearish for now and is probably heading back to 1.33+.
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  • #771
  • Aug 18, 2010 3:41pm Aug 18, 2010 3:41pm
Dow and S&P have probably put in a top on Wednesday, I think that Thursday and Friday will be large downtrending days. What I look for to determine this is a move down from the green highs and a close under the daily pivot (pink midpoint) at 5pm NY. Next it needs to move down under the green midpoint, once that happens then a move into 1067 and lower is underway. I am short from 1098.
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  • #772
  • Aug 20, 2010 3:35pm Aug 20, 2010 3:35pm
Same pattern as the last 2 Fridays, back to the highs we go again next week, i will reshort from there.
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  • #773
  • Aug 22, 2010 10:59pm Aug 22, 2010 10:59pm
AU should move down into 8834 this week, if it moves down on Monday then it will probably continue into 8818. I am holding shorts from between 8880-9018 last week, I will take partial profit at 8834 and hold the rest to see how the week plays out.

The move down may not happen on Monday though, there is another pattern in play based off Fridays move up off 8840 that would normally see Monday and Tuesday either move up or remain choppy around current levels.

For later in the week once 8834 is hit au will have moved to the green lows 3 weeks in a row, that means that next week has a high probability of being an upweek into the green highs.
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  • #774
  • Aug 22, 2010 11:05pm Aug 22, 2010 11:05pm
EU should move lower this week as well into 1.2636. But the same 2 day pattern mentioned above could play out in this pair as well, I am holding shorts from 1.2900 and 1.2850 last week, if price moves up on Monday then I will place more short orders at Tuesdays resistance, I won't be shorting today. If price moves straight down then I will take part profit at 1.2636. I want to hold the majority of my shorts though as I think by the end of september eu will be making new lows for the year.
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  • #775
  • Aug 22, 2010 11:17pm Aug 22, 2010 11:17pm
GU 4hr is showing the way. Based on fridays move up off the green lows this pair should move up to 1.5685 before moving back to 1.5448 this week.
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  • #776
  • Aug 23, 2010 4:12am Aug 23, 2010 4:12am
Quoting amyc
AU should move down into 8834 this week, if it moves down on Monday then it will probably continue into 8818. I am holding shorts from between 8880-9018 last week, I will take partial profit at 8834 and hold the rest to see how the week plays out.

The move down may not happen on Monday though, there is another pattern in play based off Fridays move up off 8840 that would normally see Monday and Tuesday either move up or remain choppy around current levels.

For later in the week once 8834 is hit au will have moved to the green lows 3 weeks...

Closed the au shorts earlier at 8935, it looks like today and Tuesday will be updays. I will look for new shorts off resistance on Tuesday which should be around the 9000 area.
The S&P needs to cross 1077.5 to verify an upmove there, if that happens then Tuesday should move up into 1097.

Still holding all eu shorts.
  • #777
  • Edited 4:28pm Aug 23, 2010 3:52pm | Edited 4:28pm
AU moved up exactly 140 pips from the lows on Monday, that is a common retracement level and good selling point if there are downside targets to be fulfilled. There have also been two 4 hr closes back below the midpoint at 8937 therefore I am back into shorts on Tuesday. Resistance is 8931 and the target is 8834. It's possible that Tuesday could be another consolidating day without a new low being made but there are enough bearish signs to get me back in today.
  • #778
  • Aug 23, 2010 3:53pm Aug 23, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting amyc
EU should move lower this week as well into 1.2636. But the same 2 day pattern mentioned above could play out in this pair as well, I am holding shorts from 1.2900 and 1.2850 last week, if price moves up on Monday then I will place more short orders at Tuesdays resistance, I won't be shorting today. If price moves straight down then I will take part profit at 1.2636. I want to hold the majority of my shorts though as I think by the end of september eu will be making new lows for the year.
EU has just reached my target of 1.2636, it looks like it will probably continue lower from here. 1.2604 is the next target.
  • #779
  • Aug 23, 2010 6:09pm Aug 23, 2010 6:09pm
EU, the 4hr close above 1.2633 should see a move back to the midpoints over the next day or two. First today though there could be a move down to 1.2611.
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  • #780
  • Aug 24, 2010 1:12am Aug 24, 2010 1:12am
Quoting amyc
AU moved up exactly 140 pips from the lows on Monday, that is a common retracement level and good selling point if there are downside targets to be fulfilled. There have also been two 4 hr closes back below the midpoint at 8937 therefore I am back into shorts on Tuesday. Resistance is 8931 and the target is 8834. It's possible that Tuesday could be another consolidating day without a new low being made but there are enough bearish signs to get me back in today.
AU shorts all closed at 8834.
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