Silent Service Method | Page 519 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Silent room 2 replies

Silent Success of Patience 10 replies

My silent journal 4 replies

bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies

Seeing Through the Silent Crash 4 replies

Attachments: Silent Service Method
Exit Attachments

Silent Service Method

  • #10,361
  • Aug 13, 2010 4:52pm Aug 13, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Thanks for those articles, a good read but my thoughts are still the same. I definitely see it as a speculator led move. I understand supply and demand and how they affect commodity prices but I think this is a massive overreaction to what is, essentially, quite a minor dip in supply.

I have to admit, it's not JUST a speculator move. I mean, there is a certain amount of destruction of the world's wheat crops. Is it a massive overreaction? You bet your ass it is. But that's the nature of these type of moves.

Don't believe me? How about oil at $147 a barrel? Look what happened there. Or any time grains have risen like this in the past.....always the same outcome. Oil pushed corn higher, remember ethanol? lol

The thing is we are trading crowd psychology by watching the charts. This is just an extreme case is all.

I am very interested in shorting wheat - when I get a really nice weekly set up. But that time is not now.
  • #10,362
  • Aug 13, 2010 4:56pm Aug 13, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Well I'm out at the moment so it's easier to have an opinion! For me this is something to watch. Like you though I'd expect it to go higher yet. Have a good weekend.
I should add to my last post that I agree with this statement. Wheat will go higher before it goes lower. What happens is always the same. Think about those wild corn prices a couple of years ago.

The thinking was, "Oil is getting so expensive, we NEED to produce a ton of ethanol." It made sense, because oil was over $100 a barrel, and nobody knew if it was going to stop. So what do you think happened?

The same thing that always does:

Farmers who were planting soybeans, wheat, and other crops noticed how lucrative selling corn had gotten. So the following year, what did they plant? You got it: Corn.

That is exactly what will happen next planting season, you can take that to the bank.
  • #10,363
  • Aug 13, 2010 5:02pm Aug 13, 2010 5:02pm
Quoting Mr D.
Hey Chris, How can the yen forever go down against the Dollar? Just look back to 1995 and it has crushed the dollar. Both countries have terrible interest rates and both are in bad debt situations. The yen is a major export country and a strong currency is not good for a country who relies heavy on exports.I feel all 4 major currencies USD EUR JPY And GPB are in mired in debt and should really fall like a rock. Boggles the mind. PS The USD is just lucky it is used as the worlds reserve currency....
Well, these currencies have some other dynamics that you might want to consider....

In Japan, they have an outrageous amount of debt. Furthermore, they have an aging population. The JGB's (Japanese Bonds) tend to be bought by the Japanese public for retirement. Of course, when you have less and less people every year - this poses a real problem.

The British are knee-deep in banking, and as such, there will always be a certain amount of demand for the British Pound.

The Euro will dissolve. I still believe this. It won't be this year though.

The USD is held and used by too many important players in the world. The USD will always be defended to a point, and as such will be fine over time. I don't think it's a great currency to own. But where else you going to make a reserve currency? China? lol You need a government you can trust, or at least is good at lying, like ours. The Chinese have this bad habit of forcing their will on people. We are more diplomatic about it. We will at least send you a check if necessary.

To you original question, I think you meant how can the USD go down against the JPY forever? It can't. I honestly believe we are starting to see a bottom. It will take some time, but once it's in place - it's time to go long and hold.

Of course, it needs to show me this on the charts as well.
  • #10,364
  • Aug 14, 2010 7:27am Aug 14, 2010 7:27am
Quoting clockwork71
Euro will dissolve. I still believe this. It won't be this year though.

I honestly believe we are starting to see a bottom. It will take some time, but once it's in place - it's time to go long and hold.

Of course, it needs to show me this on the charts as well.
Big call on the euro. Very possible though. I dont think many people yet realise the level of debt the PIGS of the euro are in.

Here in Ireland, for example, 2million euro was paid for a field that is now worth 100k. There are 100s of fields like these, but because they are below a threshold of 5million, they have so far slipped under the radar.

There are no jobs being created here. Government mismanagement might yet send us under. There is currently an investigation into illegal claiming by of expenses government. 99% of ministers are shockingly silent on the inquest. It is rife many believe.

One minister paid 100keuro for a flight aboard our biggest governement jet to a summer school for ministers in Ireland, while his guard drove his Merc S-class to the same school just 2 hours drive away.

That was last week!
Things like these do notgo unnoticed by the international markets, especially frugal Germany who floats all our boats...

Once our interest rate hits 5% to borrow money, and it is very close to it, we will be in big trouble. Growth internally is less than 2% from the most optimistic spectator.

If countries like Ireland go under, then the euro will struggle...

Re - usdjpy - My only opinion is that calling tops or bottoms is a tricky business. Unless you have a pair of big pins at the same level with some room between them, like the euro was it last year, then it can be deceiving
  • #10,365
  • Aug 14, 2010 7:41am Aug 14, 2010 7:41am
Quoting jicjoc

Re - usdjpy - My only opinion is that calling tops or bottoms is a tricky business. Unless you have a pair of big pins at the same level with some room between them, like the euro was it last year, then it can be deceiving
Correct. I am saying that I believe we are in the process of seeing something like this. If you look back to '94 when we were last in the neighborhood, it took a few months to get it going. I expect nothing different this time.

However, I am waiting for the same kind of signal you just described.
  • #10,366
  • Aug 14, 2010 8:10am Aug 14, 2010 8:10am
[q uote=clockwork71;3947268]Well, these currencies have some other dynamics that you might want to consider....

In Japan, they have an outrageous amount of debt. Furthermore, they have an aging population. The JGB's (Japanese Bonds) tend to be bought by the Japanese public for retirement. Of course, when you have less and less people every year - this poses a real problem.

The British are knee-deep in banking, and as such, there will always be a certain amount of demand for the British Pound.

The Euro will dissolve. I still believe this. It won't be this year though.

The USD is held and used by too many important players in the world. The USD will always be defended to a point, and as such will be fine over time. I don't think it's a great currency to own. But where else you going to make a reserve currency? China? lol You need a government you can trust, or at least is good at lying, like ours. The Chinese have this bad habit of forcing their will on people. We are more diplomatic about it. We will at least send you a check if necessary.

To you original question, I think you meant how can the USD go down against the JPY forever? It can't. I honestly believe we are starting to see a bottom. It will take some time, but once it's in place - it's time to go long and hold.

Of course, it needs to show me this on the charts as well.[/quote]



Thanks for your thoughtful reply Chris. We are starting to see signs of a possible reversal in the Yen. Also with less and less faith in the $USD we may see a universal reserve currency and if that happens the green back could go with the Euro. Just something to look for in the charts. Have a good weekend MR D.
Jesus my Lord
  • #10,367
  • Aug 14, 2010 8:33am Aug 14, 2010 8:33am
Don't want to worry you guys too much but another war could be on the way.

It'd also strengthen the dollar and if Israel bombs Iran, America will be there with them - WWIII???? I hope not but if things blow up in Iran the whole Middle East will explode.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2689
  • #10,368
  • Aug 14, 2010 2:01pm Aug 14, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting stewrigh
Don't want to worry you guys too much but another war could be on the way.

It'd also strengthen the dollar and if Israel bombs Iran, America will be there with them - WWIII???? I hope not but if things blow up in Iran the whole Middle East will explode.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2689
I don't think that's likely. Iran, Israel and the US along with Russia and the rest of the world knows very well that the US is too weakened by their campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan right now to start another invasion - Iran will not roll over and play dead like Iraq did.
My guess is that Iran will remain safe until the US has withdrawn large parts of their forces from those two countries.

Israel would be foolish to start something on their own if they risk that the US would be unable to come to their aid, and they may be many things but they are certainly not fools.

But then again, nobody knows the future huh. Personally I'm hoping that my lifetime may become one of those rare periods in human history when we've all been able to get along. Wouldn't that be nice!
  • #10,369
  • Aug 14, 2010 2:59pm Aug 14, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I don't think that's likely. Iran, Israel and the US along with Russia and the rest of the world knows very well that the US is too weakened by their campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan right now to start another invasion - Iran will not roll over and play dead like Iraq did.
My guess is that Iran will remain safe until the US has withdrawn large parts of their forces from those two countries.

Israel would be foolish to start something on their own if they risk that the US would be unable to come to their aid, and they may be many things but they...
It wouldn't be the first time the Israeli Air Force has flown into another country and bombed something. The dirty little secret is that a lot of Iran's Muslim neighbors would secretly cheer. And I don't think the US will invade Iran either. The policy of containment was set up by a different administration altogether. (You didn't think it a coincidence that Iran is sandwiched between Iraq and Afghanistan did you?)

Chris
  • #10,370
  • Aug 14, 2010 3:15pm Aug 14, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting clockwork71
It wouldn't be the first time the Israeli Air Force has flown into another country and bombed something. The dirty little secret is that a lot of Iran's Muslim neighbors would secretly cheer. And I don't think the US will invade Iran either. The policy of containment was set up by a different administration altogether. (You didn't think it a coincidence that Iran is sandwiched between Iraq and Afghanistan did you?)

Chris
True, but if they were going to do that they should already have done so, their window of opportunity seems to be closing fast.

Secretly I'd cheer along with those neighbors No, on second thought I would cheer openly!

As for different administrations, do you really think there's that much of a difference in reality? From my own Swedish experience it seems that little change when leaders/parties etc shift - it's to a large extent empty rhetoric and then business as usual.

Then again, I couldn't help seeing in the news that Obama apparently has come out in support of a mosque just next to Ground Zero! That's appaling in my view and someone should slap some sense into him. I wonder if the last administration would have shared Obama's view...
  • #10,371
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:06pm Aug 14, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting o990l6mh
True, but if they were going to do that they should already have done so, their window of opportunity seems to be closing fast.

Secretly I'd cheer along with those neighbors No, on second thought I would cheer openly!

As for different administrations, do you really think there's that much of a difference in reality? From my own Swedish experience it seems that little change when leaders/parties etc shift - it's to a large extent empty rhetoric and then business as usual.

Then again, I couldn't help seeing in the news that Obama apparently...

Essentially, no....there is no real difference between most administrations. They serve themselves, and no one else.

At least in Sweden you have some hot Princesses. We have Nancy Pelosi. And Barney Frank - but he's a queen, and not a princess.

LOL
  • #10,372
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:06pm Aug 14, 2010 4:06pm
Podcast up at the blog.
  • #10,373
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:07pm Aug 14, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting o990l6mh
True, but if they were going to do that they should already have done so, their window of opportunity seems to be closing fast.

Secretly I'd cheer along with those neighbors No, on second thought I would cheer openly!

As for different administrations, do you really think there's that much of a difference in reality? From my own Swedish experience it seems that little change when leaders/parties etc shift - it's to a large extent empty rhetoric and then business as usual.

Then again, I couldn't help seeing in the news that Obama apparently...
I'm not big on arguing about religion seeing as I think it's all a crock of shit (subtle sometimes me, huh?) but what you have to remember about 9/11 and this whole sacred ground zero thing is that there were plenty of muslims actually killed in that particular atrocity. Also you can't seriously tell me that the perps who pulled that off were actually muslims rather than working for Al Qaeda with some twisted version of Islam in their heads?

Like I say I'm not big on religion but maybe that helps me see better that the whole question of Christianity against Islam is not the problem. The problem is the fundamentalist views of certain people who have extremist views about the world and their place in it. By the way, I'm sure there are some dumb f**kers in the south of the good ole' US of f**kin' A who still believe in white supremacy and that Hitler basically had the right idea. The funny thing is that if these people wanted to put a religious building somewhere near ground zero they'd be in on the nod.

Don't get me started about Israel. I don't consider myself anti-semitic in any way but I always just think... "Two wrongs don't make a right".
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,374
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:20pm Aug 14, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting clockwork71
Essentially, no....there is no real difference between most administrations. They serve themselves, and no one else.

At least in Sweden you have some hot Princesses. We have Nancy Pelosi. And Barney Frank - but he's a queen, and not a princess.

LOL
I hate to correct you Chris, but I think they serve their (financial) sponsors (which also serves them).
  • #10,375
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:25pm Aug 14, 2010 4:25pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
I'm not big on arguing about religion seeing as I think it's all a crock of shit (subtle sometimes me, huh?) but what you have to remember about 9/11 and this whole sacred ground zero thing is that there were plenty of muslims actually killed in that particular atrocity. Also you can't seriously tell me that the perps who pulled that off were actually muslims rather than working for Al Qaeda with some twisted version of Islam in their heads?

Like I say I'm not big on religion but maybe that helps me see better that the whole question of Christianity...
Wow, I actually share all of those views! Not often you find someone else who thinks exactly the same!
For instance I no longer discuss my views of how naive/gullible people are to believe in religion/new age crap with my wife as those discussions always end badly...

Oh, I have to add that I'm really very much in two minds when it comes to the behavior of the state of Israel. It's just such a mess down there it's hard to figure out what's right or wrong.

The reason I think the mosque is a bad idea is that it will without a doubt be viewed as a victory by the extremists, no other reason.

When I become world dictator the only allowed religion will be atheism... but that will be my only similarity to communism.
  • #10,376
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:28pm Aug 14, 2010 4:28pm
OK, weekend review, started a new, completely naked chart profile, just to see things from a fresh perspective.

Two things came up, one possible the other....rediculous.

Does anybody have any opinions about the reliability of chart patterns on a monthly TF?

I've called some weeklies right, and some wrong, with equally unbelievable targets, so here they are:

http://i34.tinypic.com/2da0yh.png

http://i38.tinypic.com/fc8vah.png
  • #10,377
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:34pm Aug 14, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting Low
OK, weekend review, started a new, completely naked chart profile, just to see things from a fresh perspective.

Two things came up, one possible the other....rediculous.

Does anybody have any opinions about the reliability of chart patterns on a monthly TF?

I've called some weeklies right, and some wrong, with equally unbelievable targets, so here they are:

http://i34.tinypic.com/2da0yh.png

http://i38.tinypic.com/fc8vah.png
If you were to view the gbpchf as a triangle you would get the height of the triangle instead as the target which sort of makes more sense.
  • #10,378
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:36pm Aug 14, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting o990l6mh
If you were to view the gbpchf as a triangle you would get the height of the triangle instead as the target which sort of makes more sense.
Sense? Who said anything about sense?
  • #10,379
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:38pm Aug 14, 2010 4:38pm
Quoting Low
Sense? Who said anything about sense?
Duh! Forgot we were talking about the markets!
  • #10,380
  • Aug 14, 2010 5:37pm Aug 14, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Duh! Forgot we were talking about the markets!
Knowing that the market can and will do whatever it wants, is not the same as exposing yourself to perceived impossibilities, with the goal expanding one's mental flexibility.

Everybody thought I was high going long the pound and targeting 1.58. Same thing when a triangle projected 84 for the usd/jpy. Again on the kiwi to 98 (completely wrong), but the message is the same:

Anything can happen.
3 traders viewing now