Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 98 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #1,941
  • Aug 13, 2010 7:32am Aug 13, 2010 7:32am
Quoting medici
Thanks. Well spotted then. The reason for my question is that it sometimes seems like that those managing the order flow follow the EMA30 as well

You should read Constance Brown's work. She is considered one of the world's foremost experts on Gann stuff, and she uses angles of planetary rotations to make predictions with amazing accuracy.
Thanks, I'll take a look - but I did find those ideas very hard work and frankly in Forex we already have some rather good time zones / lines already known to us
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,942
  • Aug 13, 2010 7:39am Aug 13, 2010 7:39am
Quoting Islander
Thanks, I'll take a look - but I did find those ideas very hard work and frankly in Forex we already have some rather good time zones / lines already known to us
You can have a peek here:

http://www.aeroinvest.com/chart%20Gallery/gallery1.htm
  • #1,943
  • Aug 13, 2010 7:56am Aug 13, 2010 7:56am
Quoting medici


Thanks for charts. Well done again

I don't trade 1min charts either, but in conjunction with HL, LH trading the cross of the EMA30 is a good entry trigger as indicated in my previous post. Just like you I prefer the 5min. Following the market on a 1min makes me do stupid things, so I follow the market on 5min and higher time-frames and go to the 1min when I know what direction things are moving in.

If you had used the 1min EMA30 and traded the swings, you wouldn't have been stopped out the way you were See attached chart.
Thanks alot for that I did use to have the EMA30 on but decided to take it off as I wasn't really watching it and is pretty similar to the 20EMA that I use.
I should really pay more attention to it like you have shown in your chart even though I don't trade the 1min when price is back around the 20/30EMA on the 1min I could have entered into a short again on the 5min after I was stoped or like you say could have saved me from being stoped.

Thanks.
  • #1,944
  • Aug 13, 2010 8:02am Aug 13, 2010 8:02am
Quoting Islander

Edit: Its then about creating your own rules based on PA around these MAs and applying them - and that's usually the most difficult part. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

From your charts it seems that you enter not only on crosses of the EMA30 but also retracement to it that doesn't actually cross, and then you base it or on some kind of momentum rule, I suppose?
  • #1,945
  • Edited 8:36am Aug 13, 2010 8:23am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting medici
From your charts it seems that you enter not only on crosses of the EMA30 but also retracement to it that doesn't actually cross, and then you base it or on some kind of momentum rule, I suppose?
Its blowing a gale here today, so I've returned to my screen for a couple of hours - actually not bad timing as € is busy bouncing around the Sweet Spots and its difficult not to pirate a few more pips....

As I mentioned a few posts ago, the highest % trades are pull backs to around a sloping 5m 30 ema - also the 1 min, but that has more chance of failing, unless the move is strong. These are great continuation trades. Its all about "reading" the PA around the MAs and Levels.

However, I will also trade when price has become extended away from the 5m 30 - here I use the outer bands as a guide - but I need to see a reaction to "a level" too AND preferably a 1 min HL / LH. I trade smaller size and look to exit firsty ~the 1m 30 and if I'm taking another similar entry, then I'll look for the 5m 30 as a target.

A break of a flattening 5m 30 followed by the MA changing colour - slope - confirms a reversal for this time frame.......ditto on a 15m or 60m TF
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,946
  • Aug 13, 2010 8:28am Aug 13, 2010 8:28am
Quoting Islander
Its blowing a gale here today, so I've returned to my screen for a couple of hours - actually not bad timing as € is busy bouncing around the Sweet Spots and its difficult not to pirate a few more pips....

As I mentioned a few posts ago, the highest % trades are pull backs to around a sloping 5m 30 ema - also the 1 min, but that has more chance of failing, unless the move is strong. These are great continuation trades. Its all about "reading" the PA around the MAs and Levels.

However, I will also trade when price has become extended away...
Thank you for detailed explanation.

Have a nice weekend in spite of the gale!
  • #1,947
  • Aug 13, 2010 3:26pm Aug 13, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting reflex

Lower TL still not hit you think we'll get there in NY session medici?
Sorry reflex, but I missed your question. After a CI divergence reversal like this morning, it seems like it's safe to hold on until the SMA20 and the BBs flatten, and exit on a CI divergence. See chart.

It may need more than one patience pill to sit on that, so one way of diong it would be to leave a runner from the divergence entry and trade the LH/HLs at the same time.

My own story today was that I closed the divergence entries early and then traded the LH/HLs inconsistently. But still an ok day. We live and learn...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable m5 13 aug.jpg Size: 86 KB
  • #1,948
  • Aug 13, 2010 4:15pm Aug 13, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting medici

My own story today was that I closed the divergence entries early and then traded the LH/HLs inconsistently. But still an ok day. We live and learn...
I'll take that as most Fridays for me!!
  • #1,949
  • Aug 13, 2010 4:30pm Aug 13, 2010 4:30pm
Quoting Sim
I'll take that as most Fridays for me!!
With me it's only because it's the 13th No, seriously, it happens on Fridays every once in a while as I develop the Friday Zombie syndrome after getting up at 5.30am all week and not being able to get in bed early enough. A pity as today was, as many Fridays, a day of good volatility with position adjustments ahead of the weekend.

New week on Monday! Have a nice weekend in between.
  • #1,950
  • Aug 14, 2010 3:02am Aug 14, 2010 3:02am
It's weekend and time to look at long-term charts.

From the weekly we can see that SPX has spent the summer between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the credit crisis drop, failing twice to break above the 50% level. Not a good sign for the equity markets.

Note also how the CI pinpoints the reversals around the big drop.

From the daily we can see more examples of CI effectiveness at pinpointing reversals.

And from the reverse divergence on the daily, the indication is that this week's drop needs a retracement before the down-trend continues. Let's see what the coming week brings...

Finally, for chilling weekend reflection, compare the weekly chart to the chart from the 1930s, in particular the encircled area compared to the action of the past nice months.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spx weekly 14 aug.jpg Size: 408 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: spx daily 14 aug.jpg Size: 378 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gdepression2.jpg Size: 287 KB
  • #1,951
  • Aug 14, 2010 3:18am Aug 14, 2010 3:18am
I won't bother with posting charts, as it is easy to check for yourselves, but the weekly says that there's is plenty of room for further down-side, whereas the daily and 4 hour say that it's time for a retracement of part of this week's drop.

So same indication as for equity markets. TWT.
  • #1,952
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:36am Aug 14, 2010 4:36am
Do you believe institutional dealers have Bollinger bands on their charts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro m5 14 aug.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #1,953
  • Aug 14, 2010 5:19am Aug 14, 2010 5:19am
Nice to see this thread humming along again. Didn't have it subscribed for some reason and lost track in July sometime when not much was happening in here. As always, fantastic analysis and I'll make sure I don't forget again. CII divergence and Bollinger Bands in here now too. I've been using RSI for a while and used to use the bands, so this will be interesting to take a look at and compare them. Got some reading and catching up to do now! Always a good way to spend a weekend...
  • #1,954
  • Aug 14, 2010 6:50am Aug 14, 2010 6:50am
Quoting medici
I won't bother with posting charts, as it is easy to check for yourselves, but the weekly says that there's is plenty of room for further down-side, whereas the daily and 4 hour say that it's time for a retracement of part of this week's drop.

So same indication as for equity markets. TWT.
Hi Medici, loving all the analysis here.

What does TWT mean, the winning team?

sorry if I am being dense

http://www.acronymgeek.com/TWT
  • #1,955
  • Aug 14, 2010 6:52am Aug 14, 2010 6:52am
Quoting medici
Sorry reflex, but I missed your question. After a CI divergence reversal like this morning, it seems like it's safe to hold on until the SMA20 and the BBs flatten, and exit on a CI divergence. See chart.

It may need more than one patience pill to sit on that, so one way of diong it would be to leave a runner from the divergence entry and trade the LH/HLs at the same time.

My own story today was that I closed the divergence entries early and then traded the LH/HLs inconsistently. But still an ok day. We live and learn...
Cheers for that medici like you say it did need more than one patience pill to sit on that.
I do find it hard to sit in a trade once things start going sideways what I usually do if I'm not sure where we are going after LO has hit my HR1 target area is close and wait for midday/NY open to see if it carrys on in the direction of LO or reverses.
But like you say I could have just closed half of my short and waited for price to confirm a reverse or contiunation and either closed remainder or added back in.
That is something I will have to start thinking about doing.

Thanks for the advice and have a good weekend.
  • #1,956
  • Aug 14, 2010 8:27am Aug 14, 2010 8:27am
Quoting jag1966
What does TWT mean, the winning team?
LOL
trade with Two (Islander & Medici)

no!

trade with trend
  • #1,957
  • Aug 14, 2010 8:47am Aug 14, 2010 8:47am
Quoting jag1966
Hi Medici, loving all the analysis here.

What does TWT mean, the winning team?

sorry if I am being dense

http://www.acronymgeek.com/TWT

TWT.......Time Will Tell
  • #1,958
  • Aug 14, 2010 1:27pm Aug 14, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting jag1966
Hi Medici, loving all the analysis here.

What does TWT mean, the winning team?

sorry if I am being dense

http://www.acronymgeek.com/TWT
It's great isn't it! And it seems like God's own investment bankers are drawing the same conclusions from the same charts, and they usually get it right:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cha...decline-stocks
  • #1,959
  • Aug 14, 2010 1:38pm Aug 14, 2010 1:38pm
This is a pdf of the most recent Goldman-Sachs' weekly fx strategy brief. Highly interesting reading!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 35862474-Charts-That-Matter.pdf   931 KB | 546 downloads
  • #1,960
  • Edited 2:39am Aug 15, 2010 12:06am | Edited 2:39am
Quoting medici
Another beautiful CI divergence.
I've been taking a look at this CI indicator this weekend and I'm really liking it compared to my usual RSI. It has given some lovely setups on the example charts you've posted as well.

I was wondering how you generally take your entries with these CI divergence reversals. I know you often like to enter right on a "level", so are you trying to enter more at the BB extreme itself when divergence presents itself, or are you waiting for price action to form that hints at reversal first (like ryanmcd and Jankone)? If the latter, do you then enter as soon as the 5min bar closes, or do you wait for the break? Curious about this because I know that ryanmcd and Jankone differ in this regard.

Cheers and thanks for sharing this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro m5 12 aug 3.gif Size: 22 KB
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