Weakly Trading

(pun intended) - Mods please leave my sense of humour alone. I am not illiterate.

It's fair to say that my discipline is less than perfect. I am capable of spotting a good entry and acting on it but somehow I always seem to mess myself up.

I've decided on a new course of action. I now only trade weekly charts, check the charts towards the end of the day on a Friday and I don't even open the trading platform the rest of the week (not even a sneaky peek).

I will post the basic setup, entry and exit rules as I go along but for now here are two trades I have taken today.

UsdSgd posted a spinning top last week and held below the key 1.38 level. The upwards trendline at the bottom of the chart is just a tentative trendline drawn to alert the possibility of support but it doesn't look too strong. On balance I feel there is another negative week in store for this pair.

That's a nice pin on NzdUsd. A decline to 0.68 looks distinctly possible.

Here's the basic method...

Take a weekly chart and zoom it out to it's furthest extent. Draw lines at round numbers that have acted as significant support and/or resistance in the past. This means looking at round numbers where trends have changed direction. The idea is that if these round numbers have acted as strong s/r in the past that they have a fair chance of acting as strong s/r again.

Before I go any further I'd like to credit Clockwork71 and his silent service method thread for the above. Works a dream. Like most trading strategies this combines the best of the best from a few various strategies. If I had to put it into words it's price action at support and resistance, heard that somewhere before? I suppose how you come by your entries and exits is a personal thing, it's just a case of taking small losses quickly and taking big wins slowly and doing it consistently.

Once you've done that move to the monthly chart and draw any relevant trendlines or potential trendlines (a two touch trendline isn't technically a trendline but it does point out areas where you should be watching for a possible bounce on the third touch). Move to the weekly and refine the trendlines and add any more that apply).

Next add a 3 sma of the typical price (the pivot point MA). I read about this in a book by J Person, notice how short to intermediate trends tend to hold above that level. I'll be using this to validate entries, generally only trade in the direction of the cross, but also to determine exits.

Once you've got the charts set up as above (I trade all available crosses with spreads under 20) then it is just a case of watching and waiting for the right price action at the right level. I will expand on this further if asked.

Looking forward to your next input, many thanks.

Once a trade has been taken there are a few things to consider with regards to managing it. As previously stated I won't be checking the charts intraweek. The only time that matters is the close of the candle which only happens once every Friday night. I can't change the price action or direction of the trade during the week by watching it so what on earth is the point of checking it or watching it?

This is a big part of the emotional aspect of trading for me. I don't know why I am so compelled to sit and watch a trade even when I am comfortable with the position size/risk and even if it's going my way! I know I have no control over what happens, I can only alter my reaction to what happens. Moving to trading weekly charts seems like a solution for me.

My approach to these trades is to use a 500 pip stop. This sounds like a lot but in actual fact this will allow the weeks price action to develop and I will only get stopped out on a big move in the opposite direction of my trade.

After the first week if the price has moved against me and the 3 sma has been crossed then I will close the trade for whatever loss I have to take.

If the price has moved against me but is still within the bounds of the trade, a small doji for example, then I will move the stop loss to just above/below the high/low of the previous week and leave the trade open another week. (If the trade still looks good and moving the stop loss looks dumb then I'll leave it where it is. I know this sounds a bit too discretionary but if there's a strong trendline holding the price in, for example, then it's valid to give the trade a bit more room).

If the price has moved in my direction but only a small amount (to be quantified later) then I will move the stop loss to just above/below the previous weeks high/low and leave the trade open another week.

If the price has moved significantly in my favour and there are no immediate s/r levels or strong trendlines that could stop the price move prematurely then I will add on another position in the direction of my trade and move the stop loss(es) to the previous entry point.

On each subsequent week I will follow the above rules until either the trade is stopped out or I take profit at significant s/r (generally a combination of horizontal s/r and strong trendline s/r).

The purpose of this thread is definitely not to provide trading signals and is not an ego (look at me!) thing. This may or may not work out for me but at this stage in my trading career ( ) I think it will be helpful to put my trading thoughts and trades on public display. Maybe some discipline can be developed by putting a little on the line? As I mentioned before I can pick a decent entry, I can trail a stop judiciously and I can take a loss if I have to. My big problem is watching the chart tick up and down and having a tendency to meddle with things when they go a little against me. Well, if I don't look at the charts I can't meddle.

Please feel free to add to the thread. Other peoples opinions, insights and trades are very interesting to watch and maybe learn from so get stuck in.

Just had a skim through the charts in preperation for tonight. Usdsgd doing ok, 30 or so pips up at the moment, nothing breathtaking but in the right direction, I will probably leave that as it is and see what happens next week. Nzdusd has gone the other way with a loss at the moment of about 120 pips. I'm going to take a final decision tonight just before the close but I may leave the trade another week and see if the trendline above or 1.75 hold and it drops back down or I may just take the loss before it gets any worse.

There are a few possibles lining up for trades tonight, I like the look of cadchf and cadjpy. Also sgdjpy has held above pretty strong support. I'll post whatever happens later tonight.

Existing trades - NzdUsd went the wrong way. I thought about keeping it open to see if it held below the trendline and then went down but frankly I think I'm better of taking the loss and trading something else.

UsdSgd is currently +58 pips. Not a big enough move to merit adding on so I'm just going to leave it open another week. I think it has further to go down. I haven't moved the stop loss in, I want to give it room to do what it wants to do.

New trades - Sold EurGbp, nice reversal candle at strong s/r. Bought GbpChf, trading within a range on the weekly and given last weeks move I think it'll go higher next week.

That's it for this week, one loss booked and a winner left open, not too bad. I'm prepared for some sizeable losses along the way until I find a big move so a small loss first week is perfectly acceptable.

Until next week.

Arfer,

I will be watching this thread with interest. CW's thread has made a huge impact in my trading, including a lot of your posts there.

I am also starting to think about trading off of the weekly chart, simply because the signals seem to be a bit more clear and a bit more profitable.

I'll post the trades that I take off of the daily charts so that we can compare notes.

Cheers
JH

No worries. Not a bad week this week. I'm still in all three trades as above, usdsgd, eurgbp and gbpchf. All gone in the right direction this week. I'm not going to add on to usdsgd because although it's made a nice move into profit it's approaching historically very strong support. I want to see how it reacts there, probably a bounce from that level but hopefully not too strong. I'll leave the stop loss as is again. The other two I will just leave completely and give them another week.

I think it takes a lot of discipline and patience to trade weekly charts but I think in the long term it's going to be better for me. Hopefully we can get some discussion going about the optimal method for entries, add ons and exits.

Not a bad week again, eurgbp bounced back a bit but still just in profit. I'll give it another week. Gbpchf making slow but steady progress. Some longer term trendlines coming into play with that one possibly so I'm at break even, no add on this week and leave it another week. Usdsgd made a nice move in my favour too. Stop to break even and I'll leave that another week. It's nearing all time lows so maybe some buyers going to show up sometime soon?

I'm in the process of changing brokers from Alpari (uk) to Ava Fx. I like Ava Fx mix of forex, stocks and commodities. As a result I have closed all of my open trades on Alpari, took a few hundred pips on GbpChf and UsdSgd, EurGbp a very small gain. I will restart again once I have my new account funded and start the profit/loss account again from then. I will be posting trades on other instruments than forex as and when they appear.

Arfer,

Good to see you tradin the weekly's. Good luck and do keep us up to date !

One more day to go before weekly close so please update us on your trading and thoughts.

I've got my eye on the euro...if she closes the week below this $1.30'ish area...she will seek $1.17 again and a close below this area we will be looking at parity and below.

We shall see.

golferfx

I have similar thoughts. I entered short on the daily close below 1.29. I have not transitioned fully to trading only the weeklies, but I am headed that way.

I have brought in some of my old tools to help me pick the winning trades. I have been trading off of the dailies, but I can tell once I have the paitence that a daily entry/weekly strategy will really pay off.

I am also entering off of the weekly chart. Here is an example. I went short on the break of the bar with the arrow. I saw it as a bounce off of the MA's, but it is also a test of the SR at .8400 . I closed this trade just above .8200 (for a nice profit) because of the SR and the ranging market.

I did not want another BE trade.

In the future (once my confidence has improved) I will be riding trades like this down. I feel .7800 would be a reasonable target, but .8000 may cause some trouble.

I will be looking to re-enter short on a break and test of .8200 .