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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #18,041
  • Aug 12, 2010 8:26am Aug 12, 2010 8:26am
Quoting paul1
Must admit to being a bit cross eyed at moment.
What I see:-
1)Been in uptrend for some weeks
2)Now in downtrend for 4 days
3)But since i logged off yesterday been continous move up about 10 hours worth.
Appreciate the comment but this was what i saw.
To be honest I ,like most on this forum, could not settle on a strong bias.
You say" trade what you see" could you possibly expand on this please .
It's a little irritating as I do tend to trade with my eyes open unless its really late an I'am tired.
If you can't expand on your comment...
I am not superior to anybody. I will respond when time permits.
  • #18,042
  • Aug 12, 2010 9:24am Aug 12, 2010 9:24am
Quoting piccolo
I am not superior to anybody. I will respond when time permits.
Apologies if I'am a bit direct But I hear that comment so much its hard to determine between wannabees to genuine traders.
Whilst i trade what i see on charts,I also take note of news,any sentiments given by news sites and forums And also any recent events that may add to the strength or weakness of the economy of the currencies Am trading.It all goes in the pot and adds a little to my bias.
My intentions are not meant to offend simply to learn.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #18,043
  • Aug 12, 2010 9:38am Aug 12, 2010 9:38am
BOJ to the rescue?
  • #18,044
  • Aug 12, 2010 9:46am Aug 12, 2010 9:46am
Quoting fti
...Never expect heat from a stove until you had put in the wood....
Always keep feet on the ground while reaching for the sky.
Awesome advice/reminders, Sir
  • #18,045
  • Aug 12, 2010 10:38am Aug 12, 2010 10:38am
Hi there chaps popped up to stay relevant.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
know your scorpions and keep them tight.

some music delivery too.
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kind regards FTI for this Uber stuff and showing us the way.cheers
  • #18,046
  • Aug 12, 2010 11:26am Aug 12, 2010 11:26am
Quoting Arthur
Hi there chaps popped up to stay relevant.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
know your scorpions and keep them tight.

some music delivery too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZQyVUTcpM4


kind regards FTI for this Uber stuff and showing us the way.cheers
Very good and important to study psychology, especially yourself.This link is also interesting

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
  • #18,047
  • Aug 12, 2010 11:33am Aug 12, 2010 11:33am
Indeed, had finished Taleb's Black Swan couple weeks ago.

Very stylish and straight forward book, grabs ya by the ballz
  • #18,048
  • Aug 12, 2010 11:48am Aug 12, 2010 11:48am
Quoting Arthur
Indeed, had finished Taleb's Black Swan couple weeks ago.

Very stylish and straight forward book, grabs ya by the ballz
It reminds me of "The ugly duckling" by H.Ch.Andersen ...
  • #18,049
  • Aug 12, 2010 12:05pm Aug 12, 2010 12:05pm
nice remark mate
  • #18,050
  • Aug 12, 2010 8:03pm Aug 12, 2010 8:03pm
Quoting paul1
Another thing i used to do was to use my stop loss as a guage of risk/reward.got lots of trades were i was taken out then price went were i thought without me lol.
Everyone one say risk reward at least 2:1.
So i think i can get 20 pips i put stop 10 pips below entry =2:1 risk reward
price thinks lets have a rest slide down take stop out then start to feel strong an shoot up.
Fti says no stop.
your scout should not make you feel tense/anxious even if move 30 pips against, personally if it does its a soldier not scout,need reduce size to be correct...
Hi Paul1 Thankyou very much for your reply.As I stated I am a newbie and taking my time to understand the machinations of this market must thankyou very much and to Fti what a fantastic thread this is.Darkstar started a thread called The structure of forex brokers. Paul what do you think of that posting if you wouldn't mind replying.Your reply to my last post must of been spot on as Fti did not pick it to pieces. Again Thankyou James
  • #18,051
  • Aug 12, 2010 8:04pm Aug 12, 2010 8:04pm
Summer time in the north?

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Inserted Video


(surfing the new dollar wave...

Rgs,

Textor

P.S.: In the meanwhile low your (trading) expectations:

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/ba...of_choice.html
  • #18,052
  • Aug 12, 2010 10:41pm Aug 12, 2010 10:41pm
The way you describe your passion for the markets is thrilling, just wondering... what brought a trading career as an option to your life, how did you ever got involved with this beauty called that markets, i am curious to understands the roots of this touch, or intimate relation with the market that we all try to mimic or develop.

Quoting fti
these markets are my babies.
unless i stop breathing, I'll be there.
How do you rid 30 years addiction? Is worst than the wagon.
Haven fallen off the wagon for long long time already.
Anyway , the $$$ makes it right?
OK , now only 1 eye open.
Just got myself loads of cheap usd.
Think I 'll spend some tom.
  • #18,053
  • Aug 13, 2010 10:14am Aug 13, 2010 10:14am
One of the best week i had in regard to how i traded... how i managed the risk... how i listened to her dance....how i reacted to the dance (commander and general)...and no doubt when all this are good.. the money is good too (which is btw by-product of dancing right)....


with this i want to enjoy this weekend...so i am out till sunday night when i come back and enjoy my lady again........


V

capre diem
  • #18,054
  • Aug 13, 2010 11:32am Aug 13, 2010 11:32am
Quoting khidir
Hi Paul1 Thankyou very much for your reply.As I stated I am a newbie and taking my time to understand the machinations of this market must thankyou very much and to Fti what a fantastic thread this is.Darkstar started a thread called The structure of forex brokers. Paul what do you think of that posting if you wouldn't mind replying.Your reply to my last post must of been spot on as Fti did not pick it to pieces. Again Thankyou James
Hello james,
I will take a look at the thread and compare to fti's teaching.
If your very new whilst practising and incorporating Fti's teaching.
please try concentrate on the obvious,which eluded me for ages.
Just get you making some pips if your not already.
I hope i dont insult your intelligence if you have already noticed my points
but here goes.
In uptrend
1) identify triangles in price action, a=top,b=bottom left ,c=bottom right corner.
2) once you identify one when price candles forming to the right rise above point "a" enter with your scout and apply fti's teachings for the rest .
as long as points "a" are forming higher than previous points "a" your still in uptrend.
Obviously turn this upside down for downtrend.
As price action goes below point "a" which is now the bottom enter short position.
Stick to this simple entry points forget the rubbish banded about.
Dont think or analyse just enter, then manage your position.
Maybe some will laugh at my obvious points but i beleive a lot of people make entry more complicated than it needs to be.
Afterall entry is only a small portion of your trade.
Please let us know how you get on.
Hope you still chat when your rich lol.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #18,055
  • Aug 13, 2010 4:46pm Aug 13, 2010 4:46pm
If trading ends up being just a lot of reflexes, can we train this bear to trade?

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  • #18,056
  • Aug 13, 2010 9:50pm Aug 13, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting auxesis
By the time you read what's happening it's over or too late to use the info for profit and usually someone trying to report an opinion as fact, as it's their job to put a spin on the days activity........

Pick a timeframe that suits you and your book and trade it, if it's going up buy weakness (dips) if it going down, sell strength (rallies) determine your criteria for trend determination and trade with it till it says differently, you don't need to know why, as most of the time said reports are a ruse and reported for a ulterior motive... most...
Hi Auxesis

Quite a while back now I did some research in an effort to get info on 'hip and lop' studies. I can't clearly remember what the obstacle was but I know I came to a dead end. Do you know if there is a current or a past publication on this subject that might be available.

Cheers

Rob
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #18,057
  • Aug 13, 2010 10:02pm Aug 13, 2010 10:02pm
hey Piphop,

Not trying to interject myself, but if memory serves me. I did as you and
came to learn that hip and lop are short for high point and low point.
I could be dead wrong as I have a terrible memory.

Hope this is helpful.
  • #18,058
  • Aug 14, 2010 12:52am Aug 14, 2010 12:52am
Quoting tubguy
hey Piphop,

Not trying to interject myself, but if memory serves me. I did as you and
came to learn that hip and lop are short for high point and low point.
I could be dead wrong as I have a terrible memory.

Hope this is helpful.
The hip and lop are equal to our todays terms as HL, HH for an uptrend and LH and LL for downtrend. The theory states that in a strong uptrend/Downtrend, the order sequence you would see is hip and lop repeatedly, but when the sequence is mix up, you are entering in a ranging market. Correct me if I'm wrong.
  • #18,059
  • Aug 14, 2010 1:31am Aug 14, 2010 1:31am
Quoting tubguy
hey Piphop,

Not trying to interject myself, but if memory serves me. I did as you and
came to learn that hip and lop are short for high point and low point.
I could be dead wrong as I have a terrible memory.

Hope this is helpful.
Appreciate your input tubguy. Thanks. I do recall though, that there had been quite a study done in this area and that info on the study had been published.
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #18,060
  • Aug 14, 2010 1:41am Aug 14, 2010 1:41am
Quoting eraptheman
The hip and lop are equal to our todays terms as HL, HH for an uptrend and LH and LL for downtrend. The theory states that in a strong uptrend/Downtrend, the order sequence you would see is hip and lop repeatedly, but when the sequence is mix up, you are entering in a ranging market. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Thanks to you too eraptheman. That all makes sense and is particularly relevant to this type of trading imho. I have found that feeling the dance relies very much on a keen awareness of the HH, HL, LH, LL formations and their ranging equivalents.
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
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