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Silent Service Method

  • #10,341
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:16pm Aug 12, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting jharvey407
I still remember my first big trade. Opened a GBPUSD short on a Monady, and rode it down 330 pips, closing it on Friday. That was an eye opener.

Yeah, that would catch your attention. lol
  • #10,342
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:18pm Aug 12, 2010 3:18pm
Question of the day:

IS USD/JPY finally forming a bottom? The pinbar on the daily is certainly at the right place. I personally want to see what the week's close look like.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,343
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:20pm Aug 12, 2010 4:20pm
http://news.yahoo.com/s//dailybeast/...runforcongress
  • #10,344
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:54pm Aug 12, 2010 4:54pm
Seriously,these muppets are out of control, and lets form an orderly queue. I see Wyclef Jean standing in the presidential elections in Haiti. On what basis, after selling some records, does he think he's qualified??{crap records i might add}
Here in london, we have a somalian refugee, who won't live in council housing, as he doesn't like the neighbours. So what do the council do? Put him in a 1 million house, in the best part of London. You couldn't make it up!!!
In london, forget you postcard images, most of it is a ghetto, and this is what pisses me off, 20 years ago it was so different. Now your frightened to walk out your door, in case some little twat wants to prove his worth to some nobhead gang.They all have knives or guns. thank christ i bought a flat in mallorca 20 years ago, it's a bolthole.
thanks chris, delete my post as you see fit, but times are a changing, and not for the better.
  • #10,345
  • Aug 12, 2010 6:41pm Aug 12, 2010 6:41pm
Quoting pianosax12
Seriously,these muppets are out of control, and lets form an orderly queue. I see Wyclef Jean standing in the presidential elections in Haiti. On what basis, after selling some records, does he think he's qualified??{crap records i might add}
Here in london, we have a somalian refugee, who won't live in council housing, as he doesn't like the neighbours. So what do the council do? Put him in a 1 million house, in the best part of London. You couldn't make it up!!!
In london, forget you...
No argument here.....
  • #10,346
  • Aug 12, 2010 8:31pm Aug 12, 2010 8:31pm
Quoting pianosax12
Seriously,these muppets are out of control, and lets form an orderly queue. I see Wyclef Jean standing in the presidential elections in Haiti. On what basis, after selling some records, does he think he's qualified??{crap records i might add}
Here in london, we have a somalian refugee, who won't live in council housing, as he doesn't like the neighbours. So what do the council do? Put him in a 1 million house, in the best part of London. You couldn't make it up!!!
In london, forget you postcard images, most of it is a ghetto, and this is what pisses...
There are some pretty good forums that talk about the plight of the west, really interesting stuff. Anyway, lots of guys from the UK stop by. Sounds like the UK is a real hell hole at this point in time.

The USA is going under as well. The country was designed as a Republic for a reason. The average person isn't smart enough to determine how to run a country. We have too many people voting that cannot even manage their own checking account and don't follow the news at all.

It is sad, so much sacrafice and it is being pissed away.
  • #10,347
  • Aug 12, 2010 11:52pm Aug 12, 2010 11:52pm
Here's a chart. Notice something.....odd? A parabolic move, that will someday get a lot of people hurt. Not today mind you, but someday.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wheat.png Size: 118 KB
  • #10,348
  • Aug 13, 2010 4:27am Aug 13, 2010 4:27am
Quoting clockwork71
Here's a chart. Notice something.....odd? A parabolic move, that will someday get a lot of people hurt. Not today mind you, but someday.....
I agree. I think the return to "fair value" once the speculators are finished with just another instrument leaving the only players left to be the actual producers and consumers of the stuff will be just as rapid.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,349
  • Aug 13, 2010 6:07am Aug 13, 2010 6:07am
Quoting Arfer Daily
I agree. I think the return to "fair value" once the speculators are finished with just another instrument leaving the only players left to be the actual producers and consumers of the stuff will be just as rapid.
I'm not sure I follow you here -- are you saying fair value is much lower than where it is now?

I don't really think the move was induced by speculators at all. There's a massive drought going on in Russia and eastern Europe and last week Russia literally stopped exporting the stuff. The people bidding it up may include a few speculators but I'd bet more of the bidders are people actually making stuff that use wheat and are nervous there won't be enough to go around when they need it, meanwhile producers don't need to sell as much forward because they're aware of actual conditions and don't need to hedge as much of their production (Less supply vs. same demand --> Higher price).

Pretty Decent summary here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-year-low.html

Another interesting article here... it appears we may have the reverse problem:
  • #10,350
  • Aug 13, 2010 6:09am Aug 13, 2010 6:09am
Quoting clockwork71
Here's a chart. Notice something.....odd? A parabolic move, that will someday get a lot of people hurt. Not today mind you, but someday.....
We certainly live in a connected world market. Wildfires in Russia wipe out 2.5% of global wheat production this year and prices go ballistic! Timely given the Chinese and Pakistanis are screaming having lost a lot of their crop reserves in the recent rains. Commodities: How to make a million$ overnight or die a very swift death

I love watching the price action immediately after the initial spike in these kind of situations, you can almost see the bar where everyone goes "oh s$%t" simultaneously

USDCAD seems to be moving ok, EURGBP is hanging in there by the smallest of margins. I wonder if it will turn around? The traditional correlations between certain majors seem to be out the window this summer.

Gold is heading to my target area too so will post trade entry when it hits. Anyone had any good trades this week?

I placed resting orders on the USDJPY at 84.80 to catch the retest and then sold it at 86.1 yesterday looking to TP at 85 again. Resting orders sitting at 84.80 again and also at 85.50 and I think I'll hold these ones indefinitely.
  • #10,351
  • Aug 13, 2010 11:40am Aug 13, 2010 11:40am
Hi

Sorry for asking, but what is a resting order?

John from Durban
  • #10,352
  • Aug 13, 2010 11:42am Aug 13, 2010 11:42am
Quoting jmcl
Hi

Sorry for asking, but what is a resting order?

John from Durban
Pending order, limit order (correct me if I'm wrong).
  • #10,353
  • Aug 13, 2010 11:52am Aug 13, 2010 11:52am
Hi and thanks Low

John
  • #10,354
  • Aug 13, 2010 12:05pm Aug 13, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I'm not sure I follow you here -- are you saying fair value is much lower than where it is now?

I don't really think the move was induced by speculators at all. There's a massive drought going on in Russia and eastern Europe and last week Russia literally stopped exporting the stuff. The people bidding it up may include a few speculators but I'd bet more of the bidders are people actually making stuff that use wheat and are nervous there won't be enough to go around when they need it, meanwhile producers don't need to sell as much forward because...
Thanks for those articles, a good read but my thoughts are still the same. I definitely see it as a speculator led move. I understand supply and demand and how they affect commodity prices but I think this is a massive overreaction to what is, essentially, quite a minor dip in supply.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,355
  • Aug 13, 2010 12:21pm Aug 13, 2010 12:21pm
I'm so happy it's the weekend. I'm starting fresh with blank charts come Monday.

I'll be even happier when August is over.
  • #10,356
  • Aug 13, 2010 12:25pm Aug 13, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting Low
I'm so happy it's the weekend. I'm starting fresh with blank charts come Monday.
Are you going to completely re-draw all SR and trendlines?

Is there a particular reason you are doing this?
  • #10,357
  • Aug 13, 2010 12:32pm Aug 13, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting jharvey407
Are you going to completely re-draw all SR and trendlines?

Is there a particular reason you are doing this?
Just to get a fresh look. I'll redraw local SR, but not clutter up my charts with too many lines.
  • #10,358
  • Aug 13, 2010 12:57pm Aug 13, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting clockwork71
Question of the day:

IS USD/JPY finally forming a bottom? The pinbar on the daily is certainly at the right place. I personally want to see what the week's close look like.

Hey Chris, How can the yen forever go down against the Dollar? Just look back to 1995 and it has crushed the dollar. Both countries have terrible interest rates and both are in bad debt situations. The yen is a major export country and a strong currency is not good for a country who relies heavy on exports.I feel all 4 major currencies USD EUR JPY And GPB are in mired in debt and should really fall like a rock. Boggles the mind. PS The USD is just lucky it is used as the worlds reserve currency. PSS congrads on your new writing possition. Always Patient MR D.
Jesus my Lord
  • #10,359
  • Aug 13, 2010 1:33pm Aug 13, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Thanks for those articles, a good read but my thoughts are still the same. I definitely see it as a speculator led move. I understand supply and demand and how they affect commodity prices but I think this is a massive overreaction to what is, essentially, quite a minor dip in supply.
As they say, that's what makes a market. Jim Rogers is no doubt talking his book to some extent (his trading book & his book on commodities!), but I have to say I agree with him: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38533807

I only mentioned Russia and Eastern Europe but neglected to mention the situation in Pakistan, which doesn't even seem to be reported over here in the states, but it's not pretty -- think Katrina but in someone else's country. Not saying that alone is enough to justify the price, but good lord, what an awful situation over there. AP Reporting here on the matter.

Climax tops like that always are dicey and so we could be in store for some profit taking, but longer-term I'm still bullish on the grains... I had posted a charts over on GolferFX's ags thread pointing out the initial trendline break but didn't act quickly enough to profit from it.

Oh well, such is life! Have a great weekend...
  • #10,360
  • Aug 13, 2010 2:02pm Aug 13, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting InfinitySL
As they say, that's what makes a market. Jim Rogers is no doubt talking his book to some extent (his trading book & his book on commodities!), but I have to say I agree with him: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38533807

I only mentioned Russia and Eastern Europe but neglected to mention the situation in Pakistan, which doesn't even seem to be reported over here in the states, but it's not pretty -- think Katrina but in someone else's country. Not saying that alone is enough to justify the price, but good lord, what an awful situation over there....
Well I'm out at the moment so it's easier to have an opinion! For me this is something to watch. Like you though I'd expect it to go higher yet. Have a good weekend.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
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