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A Simple London Breakout V.2

  • #221
  • Aug 11, 2010 12:16pm Aug 11, 2010 12:16pm
Quote
Hello.
Can I add something for testing purpose?
Yesterday we missed good opportunity open position when one big candle went true whole box.
Price had very good speed and it was very unlikely that price will stock at the opposite edge of the box.
What if we start to open position not only when candle closing inside but when price reaching opposite side of the box without closing inside.
Thanks.

You can feel free to test that on your own. I am not going to make exceptions regarding my re-entry criteria, especially 15 pages deep into the thread, sorry. I made those rules for a reason as we have way too many reversals around those points, trust me, I've looked. Yes, you will miss some opportunities, but it will also it will save you from some bad trades as well, that's the way things go in this business. Again, you may trade this strategy anyway you desire, but I just can't change the thread rules for every time someone asks, it will just make things more confusing.
  • #222
  • Aug 11, 2010 5:18pm Aug 11, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting mer071898
Again, you may trade this strategy anyway you desire, but I just can't change the thread rules for every time someone asks, it will just make things more confusing.
Well said.
福 子 Victor V
  • #223
  • Aug 11, 2010 5:59pm Aug 11, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting mer071898
You can feel free to test that on your own. I am not going to make exceptions regarding my re-entry criteria, especially 15 pages deep into the thread, sorry. I made those rules for a reason as we have way too many reversals around those points, trust me, I've looked. Yes, you will miss some opportunities, but it will also it will save you from some bad trades as well, that's the way things go in this business. Again, you may trade this strategy anyway you desire, but I just can't change the thread rules for every......

Yes, this situation when price punch whole box happens very seldom,
so let's keep the rules simple.
If somebody find this adding useful for him fill free to use it.
And another question.
After creating EA we will be able only change some parameters like:
limit max and min size of the box,
start time and finish time forming of the box
may be multiplier distance for T1 T2 and T3
quantity trades per day
may be change martingales sequence, some traders cannot afford this multipliers case relatively small account. Good idea to use the multipliers to recoup the loss and giant some 10% without involving big pips swinging in plus and minus, that will give chance for more people use martingale.
And we could change some another parameters in EA.
But truth is, that any system with some complex of parameters can works only some short period, after which we have to adjust them again to continuing profitable trade.
So why we keeping all rules conserved with the stage of the firs page evolution.
We all trying to improve this very good system.
And by the way I am very proud to meet here some veterans of forex trading.
Special thanks to Mer who is patiently answering all questions and suggestions, and keeping alive this good thread!
PS
This system dos not let to rise the profit.
Some day we can see price moving far away from target T3 that limit our potential profit.
[COLOR=#000000 ! important][/color]
  • #224
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:43pm Aug 11, 2010 6:43pm
Quote
Well said

Thank you. And I'm not trying to be mean, I just like my threads to be clean and to not get too twisted around like some that I've seen on this site. Everyone here is an intelligent adult and very capable of trying things out on your own. But please, if you need help, don't hesitate to ask for it.
  • #225
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:48pm Aug 11, 2010 6:48pm
.......and I have a question.

Last night I had red boxes show on charts of EU and GU (I don't check much more)

Still the price made a HUGE move.

How do you evaluate that for yourself:
A. I stuck to the rules and did not setup any trades because of the box signaled red.(what I did)

B. I would have risked a smaller position anyhow?

Just trying to get into the right mindset.
  • #226
  • Aug 11, 2010 9:38pm Aug 11, 2010 9:38pm
Quote
After creating EA we will be able only change some parameters like:
limit max and min size of the box,
start time and finish time forming of the box
may be multiplier distance for T1 T2 and T3
quantity trades per day
may be change martingales sequence,


1. I believe you will be able to adjust almost all those type of parameters to fit your needs.

Quote
So why we keeping all rules conserved with the stage of the firs page evolution.
We all trying to improve this very good system.

2. I am not conserving or restricting the rules of this strategy at all. I'm am just keeping control of my thread with a firm grasp, which is just my choice. I just don't want 100 different variations posted in the same thread. Take the basics and use them as you wish. If you have new ideas and want to bounce them off the other traders, great, we're here for that.

Quote
But truth is, that any system with some complex of parameters can works only some short period, after which we have to adjust them again to continuing profitable trade.
3. I agree that the market changes over time and that all strategies must be tweaked and adjusted to match the markets current state. Frankly, and I'm not singling you out netant, but I'm not here to hand people everything on a silver platter. Everyone must learn, use, and adapt these strategies on their own to be able to grow as a trader. I'm always here to help as much as I can, but I'm not here to hold anyone's hand.

Quote
This system dos not let to rise the profit.
Some day we can see price moving far away from target T3 that limit our potential profit.
4. I am going to give you and any trader who reads this post some good advice, greed is the number one reason traders lose money. I see so many people on here wanting to double or triple their account each month and sooner or later it comes around and bites them in the a##. If I make 25 pips and then price moves 500 pips away from my T3, I don't care. There is always another day and I know I can put 25 pips worth of profit in the bank. And by the way, there is some talk of adding a trailing stop to the T3 part of the trade since we are already locking in pips at the T2 point.

Quote
.......and I have a question.

Last night I had red boxes show on charts of EU and GU (I don't check much more)

Still the price made a HUGE move.

How do you evaluate that for yourself:
A. I stuck to the rules and did not setup any trades because of the box signaled red.(what I did)

B. I would have risked a smaller position anyhow?

Just trying to get into the right mindset.
If you're talking about the minimum box size where it says "Caution!", You can trade those , just make sure you are going to make money on the trade. If you have a 15 pip box and the T1 is only 7 or 8 pips, it's really not a profitable deal unless you're reaching a T2 or beyond because the spread will always be against you in those situations. And if you're talking about trading using the red max boxes that sat "No Trade", my philosophy is that the farther you stretch your targets, you are allowing more risk as you will have a harder time reaching those targets. Yes, you will lose out on those big breakouts, but again, there is always another day to trade. Not placing any trades is an exceptional display of discipline which is something every trader needs to develop. And yes, you are always safer to reduce your lot size in those instances, that's what I do when there are marginal situations like that.
  • #227
  • Aug 11, 2010 9:57pm Aug 11, 2010 9:57pm
Nectant, well that was FOMC News, so there was no way you could have got into that without avoiding serious slippage if you are trading live. Just follow the rules and you will be okay. As the saying goes half bread is better than none
Quoting netant
Hello.
Can I add something for testing purpose?
Yesterday we missed good opportunity open position when one big candle went true whole box.
Price had very good speed and it was very unlikely that price will stock at the opposite edge of the box.
What if we start to open position not only when candle closing inside but when price reaching opposite side of the box without closing inside.
Thanks.
http://www.forexfactory.com/C:%5CUse...ures%5C333.jpg
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #228
  • Aug 11, 2010 11:20pm Aug 11, 2010 11:20pm
Quote
Nectant, well that was FOMC News, so there was no way you could have got into that without avoiding serious slippage if you are trading live. Just follow the rules and you will be okay. As the saying goes half bread is better than none


okeheidon, you were correct, it was the FOMC news that made the spike, but I do have to defend netant as he still has the right to trade that type of setup. You definitely would have to deal with the slippage and the spread widening that most likely came with it. That's why I don't trade NFP days as well, mainly because of the slippage.
  • #229
  • Aug 11, 2010 11:25pm Aug 11, 2010 11:25pm
Alright then, here are the results for Wednesday. It was actual a pretty straightforward day today and most of the trades were done fairly quick.

Eur/Usd

Breakout

T1= +31
T2= +65
T3= +31

Final Total= +127 pips

Counter Trend

T1= -31

Final Total= -31 pips

Next CT trade will start with a multiplier of 2.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd2.jpg Size: 78 KB
  • #230
  • Edited 11:57pm Aug 11, 2010 11:37pm | Edited 11:57pm
Gbp/Usd

Breakout

T1, T2, & T3 trades closed from Tuesday with a multiplier of 5.
T1= +125 (+25 x 5)
T2= +165 (+53 x 5)
T3= +405 (+81 x 5)

Running Total= +159 pips

New trades opened before Tuesday's trades were closed out. We enter those trades at the same multiplier of 5.

T1= +155 (+31 x 5)
T2= +325 (+65 x 5)
T3= +500 (+100 x 5)

Final Total= +1139 pips

New BO trades will be placed with no multiplier.

Counter Trend

T1 closed with no multiplier from Tuesday.

T1= -25

Running Total= -25 pips

Re-entry

T1= -62 (-31 x 2)

Final Total= -87 pips

Next CT trade will be placed with a multiplier of 5.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.jpg Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd2.jpg Size: 88 KB
  • #231
  • Aug 11, 2010 11:44pm Aug 11, 2010 11:44pm
Usd/Cad

Breakout

T2 & T3 trades closed from Monday with no multiplier.

T2= +38
T3= +58

Running Total= +96 pips

New trades opened before Tuesday's trades were closed out. We enter those trades with no multiplier.

T1= +30
T2= +63
T3= +97

Final Total= +286 pips

New BO trades will be placed with no multiplier.

Counter Trend

T1 CT trade placed with a multiplier of 34 from Tuesday.

T1= -1020

Final Total= -1020 pips

Next CT will start with a multiplier of 89.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.jpg Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad2.jpg Size: 76 KB
  • #232
  • Aug 11, 2010 11:48pm Aug 11, 2010 11:48pm
Eur/Jpy

Breakout

Loss was not recouped from Tuesday. The new entry will use the same multiplier of 2.

T1= +62 (+31 x 2)
T2= +130 (+65 x 2)
T3= +200 (+100 x 2)

Final Total= +392 pips

New BO trades will be placed with no multiplier.

Counter Trend

T1= -31

Final Total= -31 pips

Next CT trade will start with a multiplier of 2.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.jpg Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy2.jpg Size: 82 KB
  • #233
  • Aug 11, 2010 11:52pm Aug 11, 2010 11:52pm
Gbp/Jpy

Breakout

T1= +29
T2= +1
T3= +1

Final Total= +31 pips

Next BO trade will start with no multiplier.

Counter Trend

New CT trade will start with a multiplier of 13 from Tuesday.

T1= -377

Final Total= -377

Next CT trade will start with a multiplier of 34.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.jpg Size: 81 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy2.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #234
  • Aug 11, 2010 11:56pm Aug 11, 2010 11:56pm
Breakout

Eur/Usd- +127 pips
Gbp/Usd- +1139 pips
Usd/cad- +286 pips
Eur/Jpy- +392 pips
Gbp/Jpy- +31 pips

Grand total- +1975 pips

Counter Trend

Eur/Usd- -31 pips
Gbp/Usd- -87 pips
Usd/Cad- -1020 pips
Eur/Jpy- -31 pips
Gbp/Jpy- -377 pips

Grand Total- -1546 pips
Grand total for Tuesday- +429 pips
  • #235
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:40am Aug 12, 2010 5:40am
A suggestion for trading days when the initial range is very small. If you look at USJP for July you will see about 10 days when the red flag was flying. So my idea is this using the data from 27th July.
Enter the trade at TP1 - 87.14. SL will be 86.82, the short TP1 giving a range of 32 p. So TP3 becomes 64 p at 82.78. To get TP1 and 2 I just divided by 3 so TP1 is 21 p, 87.35, and TP2 is 42 p at 87.56. And that is it. I know that just one month is a very small example but is worked very well for that one month.
  • #236
  • Aug 12, 2010 1:24pm Aug 12, 2010 1:24pm
Mer,

Recommendation for trailing stop instead of traditional is doing a % of total.

If move is 100 pips positive, set at X% trail of move. This is in my opinion much more effective! I am a big fib trader, so if it retraces greater than 61%, I am out, so I would put my x% at less than 40%, but 20% from testing works very very well as the 76% fib is a great bouncer as well.

There is a BEN Trailing Stop in the Platform Tech area that is quite good. I am sure SQ would have no problem putting in such flexibility!
We are our own best indicator.
  • #237
  • Aug 12, 2010 2:19pm Aug 12, 2010 2:19pm
Quote
A suggestion for trading days when the initial range is very small. If you look at USJP for July you will see about 10 days when the red flag was flying. So my idea is this using the data from 27th July.
Enter the trade at TP1 - 87.14. SL will be 86.82, the short TP1 giving a range of 32 p. So TP3 becomes 64 p at 82.78. To get TP1 and 2 I just divided by 3 so TP1 is 21 p, 87.35, and TP2 is 42 p at 87.56. And that is it. I know that just one month is a very small example but is worked very well for that one month.

I'm sorry, I'm a little confused by your explanation, can you please post a pic so we can visual see what you are trying to accomplish.

Quote
Mer,

Recommendation for trailing stop instead of traditional is doing a % of total.

If move is 100 pips positive, set at X% trail of move....

Your in my head, get out!!! Just kidding, I am a big believer in fibs too and that makes great sense. The thing we are looking into is do we add a 4th trade that is trailed after the T3 closes or do we sacrifice a TP level to let our T3 run? It's a tough choice and we would have to look at all the options first.
  • #238
  • Aug 12, 2010 2:41pm Aug 12, 2010 2:41pm
I have never attached a chart before so I have no idea if this will work. If it does you will see the red horizontal lines showing the entry point and the TP's.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Chart.doc   89 KB | 545 downloads
  • #239
  • Aug 12, 2010 2:56pm Aug 12, 2010 2:56pm
First of all I am NOT a programmer, so cannot really change it myself, but I would like to have the 4th TP option in there.

Maybe it is too easily said, that adding it would not be much work.

Why sacrifice a level if it can be protected and saved?!

Just my 2 pesos
  • #240
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:54pm Aug 12, 2010 5:54pm
Quote
I have never attached a chart before so I have no idea if this will work. If it does you will see the red horizontal lines showing the entry point and the TP's.
I see what your saying now. Another good idea for those who want to trade those smaller caution boxes. Understand though that I believe the EA will not trade a "Caution!" box, you would need to do that manually. I personally do not trade Usd/Jpy because of the smaller range during those times (as you pointed out with all the red "Caution!" boxes). Usd/Jpy is best traded during the Asian session.

Quote
First of all I am NOT a programmer, so cannot really change it myself, but I would like to have the 4th TP option in there.

Maybe it is too easily said, that adding it would not be much work.

Why sacrifice a level if it can be protected and saved?!

Just my 2 pesos http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif
Well, I totally agree with you Freddy. I would rather add a 4th trade to the mix, but then you run into those traders who are limited in the proper funding to protect your equity and allow the necessary drawdowns in those situations where the multipliers can run up on you.

But let's say we just move the stop when we hit the T3 and trail it. When you hit the T3 and lock in those pips at T2, you risk losing those pips you made from T2 to T3 on a reversal. But the key here is what is the possible reward here? your T3 could run 200 pips farther! It could only go another 20 pips past and reverse, we have no clue. And how much do you trail the T3 by? 10 pips? 20? 50? who knows? I think there is validity to make the change but it would definitely need some extensive testing to validate if it is worthwhile to pursue.
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