My Trading Journey thus Far

Another trade done and dusted.It's times like these when you question your thinking.Maybe just do the opposite? No doubt to the 95% of losers, myself included we would all be doing well if we applied that theory to our trading. I look at the GBP/CAD Daily chart now and while it's holding the trend line I can't help to think it's going to fall further..Never mind lets move on.

So looking into a new trade. The USD/CHF looks to me like it's ready for a bounce. I like the bullish engulfing candle that closed this morning. Technically it is still in consolidation mode, but it has closed above the Monthly pivot and the 20EMA on Pro-real time. Metatrader would dispute that but this is a mini trade so I stick to the chart I'm trading of. Sar is still bearish but I think next candle will change its mind. Indys all point to some bull momentum too. Ok I'm on with a pending order. Stop below swing low. Target? Well I'm looking at it retesting the Trend line it held from Nov09-Jul10. Also coincides with the MR2 pivot around 1.09 -1.10.
Chart below:

Friday and the all important NFP figures awaiting.
Well my USD/CHF pending order trade did not take off as anticipated yesterday, and with so much important data coming tonight I've decided to cancel the trade. I'm anticipating bad figures and the resumption of a bear trend but that's just me. I have identified a really nice setup in the making on the US Tech 100 weekly. I guess it all depends how the figures come out, sentiment etc. I will have to weigh things up over the weekend but this setup suggests that we are in for a bearish few months coming up. Maybe or Maybe not?
Anyway I'm Done for the week....

I've been very busy lately so no time to update my journal.I kind of started losing the plot again over the last few trades. I'm doubting myself, my thinking, my strategies. I really don't know what's going to happen next or how to trade it. Although I've had a couple of trades make reasonable pips I have let the market take it back. I have also lost faith in my indicators,trendlines and MA's. I feel like I am losing my chance at being a trader. I pretty much feel defeated and that any move I make the market is going to make a smarter move right back at me.
Anyway I ordered a few book online. I always have fresh renewed enthusiasm after I have read a trading book.
"Trade what you see". I read this over the weekend and then hit the charts. I was amazed at how many AB=CD patterns happen on all pairs and time frames. Relatively easy to spot too. Gartleys and Butterflys a little more difficult for me but I'm sure in time I can pick it up. So anyway I'm inspired to try and add another bow to my rather long string of methods. As most of these pattern are difficult for the untrained eye to catch I'm employing Autochartist which is built into my trading software to spot them for me and I'll take the ones I like. I will concentrate on the high time frames. Daily and possibly 4hrs only.

I don't know if this is classified as cheating or whatever?
I guess I still choose the trades I like and still need to apply money management and trade skills to follow it through.
The market likes these patterns. It sets them up. I believe now that price has a road to take based on fundamentals. But if fundamentals worsen or improve the destination must still be reached first.
I think of the roads like these patterns. When a pattern doesn't work it's because something changed causing the road to extend beyond its original stop. I'm comparing it to myself leaving home to get some petrol, half way there the wife rings and says that the baby fell and is crying and to come home. I will come home but first I must get the petrol that I set out to get first.
I think this is what the market does, also explains why bad or good news sometimes does not take immediate effect, because the market has not reached its destination yet. Thus the patterns are still not complete.

Ok based on that I took 2 trades last night.
Wall ST cash just stopped me out by about 10 pips and has currently turned around. 2minis x $30.
Loss $60.
USD/CHF took off. This morning I awoke to a $83 profit and took it. It's still going up and I may re enter on a pull back but on my recent form there was no way in hell I was going to let the market come back to Break even on that one. I really need to trade 2 contracts to stop this giving back profits syndrome.
Charts below:

My thoughts of the day:
"Anticipation is a bitch"
I had a game plan last night. I studied all these experts prediction of what would follow after the FOMC.
So the general consensus was if Fed introduces QE go long risk currencies and equities. Ha Ha Ha

I awoke to see last nights action, big spike up and then some consolidation. I thought and I really need to stop thinking, that I would wait a bit for some momentum to begin and go long.
I looked at my charts of the Aus 200 and it looked so bearish. The 4hr candle just closed a small spinning top after a very bullish 4hr before that. It bounced of the TL and rejected 20+50Ema. It was screaming out " SHORT ME ".
But no I was convinced it was another market trick. I really hate second guessing myself it happens all too often. I also need to lose my opinion, not listen to the experts and just trade what I see like the book I just finished reading. Now I just sit and watch the boat sail into the sunset......Bonvoyage

YES
A winning trade, my balance is back up into profit.

I didn't take a snap shot of this when I took the trade but I enclose my entry,exit and original target. These are the kind of trades I use to take before in the demo days. Just observe price and place a stop sell pending order under the previous candle. My target was not hit and it still maybe but as I'm off to sleep and the next candle doesn't close for another 3hours I thought better safe then sorry. I had set a hard stop loss of 50 pips and original target was 100 pips. I just came in my room to have a quick check if trade had triggered and saw +54pip with bullish candle approaching so I shut it down. 2 mini lots gave me a nice $110 profit.
I gave up 34 more pips due to not observing the trade as it reversed on me on the hourly. Now exits are the problem. Possibly a better strategy maybe just using fixed conservative exits?
My RR on this was 2:1 but I took 1:1.
Something I need to work on as I don't want to give back profits ever again.

Question is: A pull back of a new bull market or continuation of a secular bear market? I guess it depends on timeframes but equities are getting trashed and I don't think it's over yet. Dollar index is picking up steam and so too is the VIX.

Well my GBP trade got to it's intended target last night so if I were a little less apprehensive I would have doubled my profits. Not to worry the move actually ended at the 38.2 fib which was the 21July-3Aug high-low. As I mark in fibs and lines as I go, I save them and see what price does.

OK at the moment price is retracing but it does look a new downtrend. All higher time frames have MA resistance up above. Well I'm looking to go yesterdays setup again. Once or if price breaks the low of the day I'm looking for 50 pips which coincides with the next fib down the 50% retracement. We are also getting close to the Monthly pivot, no doubt this should come in to play down the road.
4hr chart below

Well last nights trade just missed it's intended target but I got out with a $36 profit just the same.
My entry wasn't the best, it was based on price rather then a candle setup which is a lot more risky.
Before sleep I observed the consolidation and lack of down momentum so I shut it down.
So this morning I observe the bull rally that began almost straight from the open. I could do nothing about it as the baby was driving me nuts all day.
I just put him to sleep and impulsively took a ridiculous trade that is going under water. A buy on GBP/USD on a 5min chart. My last trade of the week lets see if it sinks or swims.

WOW when you least expect it another $42 profit.
This could be a big move but I can't watch it so take a little and say good night....

I had my best week to date last week. 4 winning trades in a row and $211 profit. I always seem to trade better when the USD is kicking butt.
So I'm a $bull for some reason....

This week I'm focusing on AUD weakness. The election is on Saturday. Last few economic numbers have been negative and it looks bearish against many pairs on the charts. It's crumbling against the USD,CAD,CHF,JPY,Euro and tid for tad with GBP.
Looking at the charts and I'll be looking at selling rallies on the 4hr.
To begin proceedings I have identified an AB=CD sell pattern on the AUD/NZD. I tried one of these on wall st cash daily candle last week and after my small 30 pip stop was taken out by 5-6pips it fell a few hundred pips.
Well this setup meets criteria as per " Trade what you see" book so I'm giving it a shot. Target is just above the 61.8 fib of the A-D leg. No stop at this stage as my pending order will be exposed to the Sunday open and I don't want to chance being spiked out due to no liquidity and a 50pip spread which I have seen on this pair before. Only trading 1 mini so danger is minimal.
Setup below:

This morning my trade has not triggered. The previous 2 candles since Friday close have long wicks suggesting more upside so I've pulled the trade.Another deciding factor was the 70 pip minimum stop which I didn't realize. The stop on this strategy needs to be just above the high so any more then 30 pips doesn't seem worth while.

UGGHH !! Back to my old tricks again

Took this setup earlier on and cashed it in at $17 for no reason whatsoever and look where it goes.
I had even set a target which I didn't abide to.
Why o Why ?

Well I took this Euro long a few hours back based on some euro momentum. I just shut it down based on the spike down from the sentiment report and outside bar forming on the hourly. $+28 profit.
Probably should have just moved stop to BE but I panicked once again.

Hi Oz pips,
Just read through all your journal & recognise myself in some of that!
I sometimes think I can read the charts but have fear of pulling the trigger like you say, I went for 3 weeks unable to place a trade. I had to talk myself into it as the fear just got worse!! I now do at least 1 a day..
I also panic & come out early, then watch it carry on without me, even in demo I do it, as soon as its in profit I forget everything I've learnt, then kick myself after, next time.......


Hawki

Hi Hawki,
Yep I certainly relate to that. I would also freak in demo mode too, because I always related demo to being real otherwise I could never demo. Truth is you never ever know how far a trade will go!!
If you can't sit and watch makes it even worse watching 100 pip winner become nothing or a 30 pip winner become a 40 pip loser. Even if you play a 4hr candle, they say don't worry about it for 4 hrs. Well that's crap. In that following 4hrs it can go 20+ your way and then turn around and take your stop out. So now I'm thinking coming out early is ok if something on your charts says so and you can't hang around to monitor. Other times well we just let emotions take over for what ever reason. Maybe dinner time, going out, things to do ,you see a few pips take it and run....What do you do? Keep going is the only remedy, good luck

Ok yesterday was interesting ( wed). I had identified a sell just below support on GBP/USD just before the massive rally that took place. I had a pending order ready as I was about to leave home. I was only going for 30pips. So then I begin to read the GBP forum, and spooked myself out !! Took the trade off and left. Come home and it went exactly where I wanted it too, almost to the pip. Lesson don't read the damn forums when contemplating a trade !!!!
Then in revenge style I took a similar setup in Euro, pending order didn't trigger. Euro rallied, I took order off, wake up and price came back down tripped order and went again where I wanted it.
Lesson: Leave pending order, even if not triggered if price revisits it's obviously going to have a shot at doing what you thought it would.
OK well 3rd time lucky: Just before sleep I saw a nice sell setup develop on AUD/USD. I missed the candle so I set a pending limit order with small stop. Wake up and thank you kindly I'm in profit around $80. Well it eventually went to my target but hey if you can't watch it you take it...I need to learn more about trailing stops as I have never used them before. Also copped the quadruple roll fee, I must have missed pulling the order by only 1 minute before the new day...

He who is quick on the trigger wins and then there are us....
I missed a beauty on AUD/USD last night. The move began in the evening. By the time I noticed it was well on its way. I had a pending order ready for the retrace but it wasn't to be. I really rue missing opportunities like that but it's all part of the game.
Not sure if I get another chance this week as I'm out all day but a profit of +120 for the week is good none the less.

Ok a new week and some new uncertainty. Our election ended up in a hung parliament and a massive gap down resulted on the AUD/USD. From the open the market is rallying to close the gap which was around 80pips. My strategy is to have a pending order waiting just above the gap and short it back down. 8950 has been a big S&R price in the past and present so this is the rally cut off point imo. I'm going for a 50 pip profit with a 55pip SL. The rally may not get to my price but I think it will try and take out the Friday closing price before it retraces.

UGGHHH !!

I made a total mess of the trade I setup yesterday

Had I left it alone it worked out well. So what happened? Firstly I intervened as price was approaching I pulled the order. Then price made a new high around 8970 I shorted it to get even better value. Before sleep I moved my stop loss to just above the hourly high of 8980. Then during the night a newer high was made by a few pips, took out my stop and then fell to exactly where I had my take profit. $-12.

At the same time last night I decided to short gold from 1226 to 1218. Well it bounced of 1222 and this morning there are a pair of 4hr tweezers formed that indicate a possible bullish thrust so I pulled it for a $2 profit.
All in all a potentially good night turned in to a $-10 loss through poor trade management.
Again it illustrates the unpredictability of the markets and the fact that if you don't stick to the game plan it all can go pear shaped rather quickly.