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vsa with Malcolm

  • #2,221
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:26pm Aug 11, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting juhanimi
I wouldnt, how can I know that price is gonna turn from there. 2 bars after there is ND.
We are in a down trend - WEAKNESS

The resistance area could not be breached by the previous higher volume.

At the last peak we have a down bar on very high volume with the next bars down also - WEAKNESS

At the trough we have a NS - POSSIBLE STRENGTH

The next bar is a ND - WEAKNESS

2 bars after that we have another ND - WEAKNESS

The next bar whilst it doesnt show weakness per se, certainly doesn't show much strength either.

Then we have a wider spread up bar on higher volume with the next bar down at even higher volume right on the resistance area - WEAKNESS

This would be a valid semi aggressive entry.

When the ND comes, take off your shirt and pawn the wifes jewelery.....

In general, there's weakness everywhere and not much strength to counteract it.
  • #2,222
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:27pm Aug 11, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I will explain this later once bacxk at home with the aid of VSA and an es daily chart

do you guys remeber last week i said es had a no demand selling 1124 with 5 point stop ? , well that has played out with other subtle vsa set ups.

I will post a chart a bit later on this

as for trading last few session , if vsa is not helping use a hulls to help you .. pretty nice trend following system . I was using one on a 5 min gu today sneaking a few pip here and there ( but no longs)
Mal,

quick refresher question around market relationships

You mentioned that the current forex action wasn't hard to predict... (I'm currently looking at a whole range of pairs showing USD up, JPY up, GPD weaker I think - haven't really checked how pound is standing on it own)

you noted the ES no demand @1124 as being a big clue

trying to follow why this likely to cause a rise in US dollar

thinking: ES short if it plays is a fall in Dow Jones, so selling of US shares - the money will be moving somewhere - into bonds - thus USD up?

and why is JPY going up? I thought JPY was a risk flight currency like AUD

(Maybe I missed some news on the fundamentals that's making everyone bullish on the US?)

cheers
f451
  • #2,223
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:42pm Aug 11, 2010 6:42pm
Quoting bablo
Allow for your 15% CONTINGENCY. The only problem is no SL on design and build project.

Mal, quick question do you. Do you ease into a position or just pull the trigger for full position.
Both guns blazing right off the bat .... lol

with vsa why ease into a position ... you are either right or your not
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,224
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:52pm Aug 11, 2010 6:52pm
missed this on gu completely .. well saw it but had to bullish a mind set...

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  • #2,225
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:57pm Aug 11, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting astral77
Hi Malcom

I have been following your posts for quite a while and as anyone who has done the same knows you have a dislike of too many indicators. The beauty of VSA is just the need for volume indicator and price candles / bars that is all.

Due to work and time restraints I trade H4 Tf using a counter trend system. I got interested in VSA as a method to make better judgments in keeping or terminating trades. I want to know why you have the opinion that H4 is not suitable for VSA. Do you think I should follow the daily TF instead?

Kind regards

yes follow the daily .... futures though . Invest in a decent futures feed.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,226
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:09pm Aug 11, 2010 7:09pm
Quoting hwsv07
could you care to explain this? thanks!

anyway i found it tough trading these few sessions..
Here is the es daily ..we saw weakness a few days back and I mentioned it in the thread here

then on the nfp we dipped down to 1005 but then had a weak push back up into the 1125 are , really weak infact ... the up move after the initial fomc comments and drop was very weak with a ton of volume around 1124

this is why I knew the stocks were going to dip and closed all long positions

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  • #2,227
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:16pm Aug 11, 2010 7:16pm
I got Buy signal on EURUSD we will see how will finish



I have all confirmation and now i will wait >





Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,228
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:31pm Aug 11, 2010 7:31pm
noted that stopping volume on gu at 1.5615 earlier that caused to close my sell

here is how this is playing out for now ... watching this till bottom of flag breaks as gu is well overdue for a retrace

1.5680 as 1st target

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  • #2,229
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:32pm Aug 11, 2010 7:32pm
From Petar_Serbia to Malcolmb14 :
Trying to seperate him from his beloved indy's :

Inserted Video



You are family now Pete , so we get to crack on you alittle bit :

it will take time , but i predict you will be down to just 2-3 soon..

The VSA story , volume , and one TRaffic light indicator..lol
  • #2,230
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:33pm Aug 11, 2010 7:33pm
i hear you intel..lol
  • #2,231
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:33pm Aug 11, 2010 7:33pm
I do not fulyl understand the relationships but typically when stock markets drop usd gets stronger , that is all I know lol

Quoting f451
Mal,

quick refresher question around market relationships

You mentioned that the current forex action wasn't hard to predict... (I'm currently looking at a whole range of pairs showing USD up, JPY up, GPD weaker I think - haven't really checked how pound is standing on it own)

you noted the ES no demand @1124 as being a big clue

trying to follow why this likely to cause a rise in US dollar

thinking: ES short if it plays is a fall in Dow Jones, so selling of US shares - the money will be moving somewhere - into bonds - thus USD up?

and why...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,232
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:35pm Aug 11, 2010 7:35pm
Mal,
Still waiting for your explanation, please explain the support break when you get time.
Quoting malcolmb14
i will reply to this one when I get home also as need my much better esignal charts to write on
  • #2,233
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:35pm Aug 11, 2010 7:35pm
Once P reads master the markets he will throw them all out the window

He is just getting confirmation of long on eu ... geez I had one on gu 2.5 hours ago ... selling climax for 40 pip move up and maybe more

Quoting taomql4
From Petar_Serbia to Malcolmb14 :
Trying to seperate him from his beloved indy's :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0B_UZNtEk4


You are family now Pete , so we get to crack on you alittle bit :

it will take time , but i predict you will be down to just 2-3 soon..

The VSA story , volume , and one TRaffic light indicator..lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,234
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:36pm Aug 11, 2010 7:36pm
Quoting taomql4
From Petar_Serbia to Malcolmb14 :
Trying to seperate him from his beloved indy's :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0B_UZNtEk4


You are family now Pete , so we get to crack on you alittle bit :

it will take time , but i predict you will be down to just 2-3 soon..

The VSA story , volume , and one TRaffic light indicator..lol
hahaha lol
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,235
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:40pm Aug 11, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Once P reads master the markets he will throw them all out the window

He is just getting confirmation of long on eu ... geez I had one on gu 2.5 hours ago ... selling climax for 40 pip move up and maybe more
Hah my friend

I prefer safer trading,also i again must repeat this is all test and i will posts some trades when i have time myabe can help someone
For me isnt important to take trade early,most important is to trade in right direction

We wills see results from test ...


Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,236
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:47pm Aug 11, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting Intel
We are in a down trend - WEAKNESS

The resistance area could not be breached by the previous higher volume.

At the last peak we have a down bar on very high volume with the next bars down also - WEAKNESS

At the trough we have a NS - POSSIBLE STRENGTH

The next bar is a ND - WEAKNESS

2 bars after that we have another ND - WEAKNESS
...
Actually we are in uptrend, higher highs and higher lows.
  • #2,237
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:55pm Aug 11, 2010 7:55pm
Quoting Tea_trader
Hey Guys got a few questions, 3 different charts......(i know bloody huge post).

First chart shows a down move, wide spread, high vol....next bar is roughly the same volume with much narrower spread and closing near high. Surley this shows some amount of buying.
The Market goes sideways and we have another downmove.
FIRST Q: how can we tell that these bars are not being tested/supported, and sometimes there just another downmove?

-----------------------------

Second chart, shows a 'double top' type formation if the first top is an...
Although Mal already gave you an answer (it's all about the background), I wanted to add something important which you shouldn't forget.

Okay, I don't believe in hulls or lines of any sort for entry (personally, just me). I believe in price, volume & time. Managing the trade is where other factors can then come in, thereafter but not before my magnificent trio -PVT. (Again that's just me).

The best way to answer your question would be to start by reminding you of the 3 basic principles of Richard D. Wycoff.

1)The Law of Supply and Demand - which simply states that when demand is greater than supply, prices will rise, and when supply is greater than demand, prices will fall.
2) The Law of Effort versus Result - which simply states that the change in price [spread] of a trading vehicle is the result of an effort expressed by the level of volume and that harmony between effort and result promotes further price movement while lack of harmony promotes a change in direction.
3) The Law of Cause and Effect - which simply states that in order to have an effect you must first have a cause, and that effect will be in proportion to the cause.

===
First thing is to look to the left of the chart. What do we have, past support broken or what do we have there? By this you're asking the question "where is price?"

Secondly, from your chart, the bar you referred to as Hidden Potential Buying was an effort to fall. Why? - Well, because it made an effort to go down.

Thirdly, how do you know if it will bounce from there or go down further. This is where the effort versus result principle comes into play. You should be paying very close attention to what the volume is doing as it attempts to fall. The Law of Effort (volume) versus Result (price) in action. This law can be seen as working on one bar BUT in relation to the others.

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  • #2,238
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:18pm Aug 11, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting skyscraper
Mal,
Still waiting for your explanation, please explain the support break when you get time.
rarely does a major s/r line get broken without a re - test

Here is gu at start of London ... the prior days Daily pivot was broken and then retested ... with a very toppy pattern on the 5 min

I nearly always wait for a break of major s/r and then an up move that exhibit weakness

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  • #2,239
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:19pm Aug 11, 2010 8:19pm
Quoting juhanimi
Actually we are in uptrend, higher highs and higher lows.
on what and what time frame ?

gu weekly if 1.6000 was top then we have a lower high
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,240
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:22pm Aug 11, 2010 8:22pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hah my friend

I prefer safer trading,also i again must repeat this is all test and i will posts some trades when i have time myabe can help someone
For me isnt important to take trade early,most important is to trade in right direction

We wills see results from test ...


Petar
cool P .. just giving you a hard time having fun
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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