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Razors Journal - Basic trading with PA at S/R

  • #441
  • Aug 6, 2010 7:46am Aug 6, 2010 7:46am
Quoting Razor_trader
GBP/JPY has so far broken the trendline support and closed below it so it will be interesting to see how it goes today.

Stops are all at BE
Took half off with the drop in price after the news to secure some profits. Rest is now in a good position to run with SL at BE.

Have a good weekend all

RT
  • #442
  • Aug 10, 2010 7:13am Aug 10, 2010 7:13am
GBP/JPY 2 x shorts Ave 200 pips. Already took some profit after NFP delivered.

AUD/USD 1 x shorts Ave 90 pips and SL at BE.

It feels good to be back.
  • #443
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:23am Aug 11, 2010 8:23am
Quoting Razor_trader
GBP/JPY 2 x shorts Ave 200 pips. Already took some profit after NFP delivered.

AUD/USD 1 x shorts Ave 90 pips and SL at BE.

It feels good to be back.
Just noticed an error in this post which I acknowledge was due to me not looking at my trades correctly.

Still holding GBP/JPY short (400 pips), the other GBP/JPY short is in fact a GBP/USD (closed the other JPY short to cover in case of pull back.

So

GBP/JPY SL @ BE with current position up over 400 pips.

GBP/USD SL @ BE and up 270 pips

AUD/USD SL @ BE and up 140 pips.

All order are short and the GBP and AUD positions have all been lightened by around 25% to ensure some account growth.

RT
  • #444
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:29am Aug 11, 2010 8:29am
Charts of trades
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD Short.jpg Size: 163 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY Short.jpg Size: 159 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD short.jpg Size: 162 KB
  • #445
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:16pm Aug 16, 2010 8:16pm
Closed some positions over the past few trading days. AUD and GBP USD crosses closed and have gone long. GBP/JPY have added some shorts

So

GBP/JPY short x 2 Ave 134.88. First position at BE, second with smallish SL

GBP/USD long x 1 Ave 1.5587. Position is at BE

EUR/USD long x 2 Ave 1.2867.

AUD/USD long x 1 Ave .8982.

GBP/JPY inside a 4 day range and looking for a strong breakout to the downside (which will take out the short term trendline). SL is on the outside of the top range.

AUD/USD bounced off some good support (which I missed adding positions too and also the 38.2 level of the last swing up.

EUR/USD bounced of some minor support and looks to be rounding to the upside. SL is place below the low of yesterday for a complete close. Not really sure on this one but have traded what i have seen

GBP/USD Same story, bounced off both trendline and horizontal support. Break above yesterdays price has been quite strong.

RT
  • #446
  • Aug 24, 2010 10:01am Aug 24, 2010 10:01am
Quoting Razor_trader
Closed some positions over the past few trading days. AUD and GBP USD crosses closed and have gone long. GBP/JPY have added some shorts

So

GBP/JPY short x 2 Ave 134.88. First position at BE, second with smallish SL

GBP/USD long x 1 Ave 1.5587. Position is at BE Stopped out

EUR/USD long x 2 Ave 1.2867. Stopped out for a small loss

AUD/USD long x 1 Ave .8982. Stopped out for a small loss


RT
Update time

Still have the shorts on GBP/JPY which have been stellar to say the least. ave position up around 500 pips

Have added 2 EUR/USD shorts. Both where around 10 pip risks with SL now at BE and positions lightened somewhat.

RT
  • #447
  • Aug 27, 2010 8:50am Aug 27, 2010 8:50am
Quoting Razor_trader
Update time

Still have the shorts on GBP/JPY which have been stellar to say the least. ave position up around 500 pips

Have added 2 EUR/USD shorts. Both where around 10 pip risks with SL now at BE and positions lightened somewhat.

RT
Still holding GBP/JPY shorts. Eur's got stopped out for better than BE about 2 hours after going to bed.

Not a whole lot of trades for the week but with the solid move down on the Pound/Yen there was not any real reason to risk too much trying to catch moves.

Have a good weekend

RT
  • #448
  • Oct 31, 2010 8:27am Oct 31, 2010 8:27am
I hadnt realised that it had been so long since I had actually done anything in this journal so I figured I had better add something for anyone who actually cares lol.

I have had a good couple of months since Aug and that last post, however I cannot make comment on it as I cannot remember the outcome. I have been focused mainly on my home land trades for the past month or so with a few trades in other areas namely EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

I thought while here I would post my thoughts to perhaps this week ahead. I have been patient over the past few weeks and have traded only when these (AUD) markets have suited. Best trades for the past weeks where a breakout/retest or S turn R of the AUD/JPY range short and a pullback to some outside bars on the AUD/USD. Results have been good with a few lame ducks along the way.

AUD/NZD - Had a strong BEOB on the weekly that has eclipsed the past 5 weeks worth of effort. This week I would be looking for a pullback on the Outside bar. There is minor confluence with the lows of previous weeks, 1.3000 round number and 38.2 retrace (to 1.2980ish area). I would like to see a further retrace, personally I prefer to see the 50% retrace if outside bar but we will have to see. I will be looking for confirmation on 4 hourly and/or daily when we near this area that shorts will be available. It is counter trend so I will be looking for high areas for Profit taking and signs at those areas to add longs back with the trend.

AUD/JPY - Has broken the support of a 2-3 week range, retested and moved away (as opposed to the last break that returned). It has hit the first point of support and formed a PB and has returned to the lows around 79.00. Looking for PA to show direction on daily or 4 hourly early in the week.

AUD/USD - Interesting at the moment. I has had a small pullback of 350ish pips of a 1400ish pip run. Daily retested last weeks low before and IB was broken with a solid close BUOB. Not sure whether this is poised to run pass parity or if the outside bar will retest some bar lows from earlier in the week before running south. In either case I am interested in a pullback to the 50% retrace of the BUOB to see whether we go high or low. PA with be a determining factor as I look for reasons to continue the strength of the AUD or fade it for the pullback I think it needs.

Charts below. I will try to add some running commentary this week but cant promise anything. It will most likely fade into oblivion lol

RT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD BEOB weekly.jpg Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY outlook for next week.jpg Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD outlook.jpg Size: 56 KB
  • #449
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:44am Nov 2, 2010 9:44am
Quoting Razor_trader
I hadnt realised that it had been so long since I had actually done anything in this journal so I figured I had better add something for anyone who actually cares lol.

I have had a good couple of months since Aug and that last post, however I cannot make comment on it as I cannot remember the outcome. I have been focused mainly on my home land trades for the past month or so with a few trades in other areas namely EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

I thought while here I would post my thoughts to perhaps this week ahead. I have been patient over the past...
AUD/NZD - went further that I thought it would but we did get an IB after the rate hike which broke to the downside. Considering the bullish nature of the news (stupid reserve bank lifting rates AGAIN and making my mortgage even more) I would not have taken this short and my bias is now skewed as the AUD has reached parity again.

AUD/USD - We got parity. I was looking for the pullback to the BUOB but am not surprised we didnt get it as this market has been sideways for a few weeks now. New highs with the rate pushing the pair back above 1.0000. Interesting now to see whether it will close above in which case we could be in for some fireworks.

AUD/JPY - The pin bar worked out well with the pair breaking back inside the range and now looking to push through the top of the range. The pin bar also created a new Higher Low for this pair with is now looking for a Higher High to continue the up trend. Missed the divergence on this pair (4 hourly) which could have been handy had I been paying a little more attention.

All in all, no trades on these pairs. Didnt get enough signal and the rates annoucement brough unexpected increase by .25%

RT
  • #450
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:59am Nov 2, 2010 9:59am
Trade I did take.

GBP/CHF Short off the 4 hourly IB. It wasnt the strongest of reasons to enter. We had separation from the 5 EMA, quite noticable divergence, a ton of highs/lows at this area, 50% retrace (2nd) and the Inside bar was my trade.

Got short and had to wait until today to get the moves south. Got my first target area which were the previous highs around 1.5820 (took 60% off at 1.5833) and move the last to BE.

Daily we have now PP at 5500 and 5400 which we need to get through. I have a trade now at the top of a swing that could go either way. I am looking for a small pullback tomorrow to the lows of yesterday 5750ish area and will see if there is reason to add some small shorts. Sl on last part of the position will be adjusted based on tomorrow. USD news on friday is always interesting so I will be hopefully gearing up to secure somemore results before then.

RT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF.jpg Size: 35 KB
  • #451
  • Nov 2, 2010 10:21pm Nov 2, 2010 10:21pm
Quoting Razor_trader
Trade I did take.

GBP/CHF Short off the 4 hourly IB. It wasnt the strongest of reasons to enter. We had separation from the 5 EMA, quite noticable divergence, a ton of highs/lows at this area, 50% retrace (2nd) and the Inside bar was my trade.

Got short and had to wait until today to get the moves south. Got my first target area which were the previous highs around 1.5820 (took 60% off at 1.5833) and move the last to BE.

Daily we have now PP at 5500 and 5400 which we need to get through. I have a trade now at the top of a swing that could...
Closed out final position at 220 pips.

Now looking at the wedge that has formed on the GBPJPY 4 hourly. Notice on the 2nd chart the last 4 bars are all inside a mother bar and have all formed (apart from 1 which was slightly outside) successive Inside Bars.

Poised for a breakout which I will be targetting a small position for the initial break and a 2nd position if we get a retest after the break. SLs will be roughly 50 pips total but will judge market activity for this. Take profit for longs and shorts will be 1:1 for half (if 2 positions are picked up) or BE for 1. I prefer the downside as that is where the trend is.

RT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY Wedging.jpg Size: 63 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 4 IBs.jpg Size: 40 KB
  • #452
  • Nov 2, 2010 11:03pm Nov 2, 2010 11:03pm
Long AUD/NZD - Strength in AUD, pullback to current area I was targetting, Some Divergence, SL below round number 1.29000 targetting previous high of PZ 1.3000 for initial Profit taking. Looking for major upside moves past 1.3100.

Aggessive entry with a conservative risk and SL placement
  • #453
  • Nov 3, 2010 5:53am Nov 3, 2010 5:53am
Quoting Razor_trader
Closed out final position at 220 pips.

Now looking at the wedge that has formed on the GBPJPY 4 hourly. Notice on the 2nd chart the last 4 bars are all inside a mother bar and have all formed (apart from 1 which was slightly outside) successive Inside Bars.

Poised for a breakout which I will be targetting a small position for the initial break and a 2nd position if we get a retest after the break. SLs will be roughly 50 pips total but will judge market activity for this. Take profit for longs and shorts will be 1:1 for half (if 2 positions are...
Well I was glad to see that we had a false break to the downside which missed my entry by 5 pips (thanks also to GFTs larger than normal G/J spreads), had it been with Oanda I would have been in short. Got strong rejection from the underside with a pin close before smashing through the top. Profit of 70% was taken at the 200EMA which is also at past PZ. I moved SL to BE after the 50 pips was made but allow the trade to run based on the momentum of the move. I have taken 70% off to cover the loss of the AUD/NZD which past a tightening SL. I tightened the SL after the pair really struggled to make ground. Now it is up to the last 30% of the G/J trade to do something or today is BE which isnt a bad result.

RT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy Wedge breakout.jpg Size: 40 KB
  • #454
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:43am Nov 3, 2010 8:43am
Quoting Razor_trader
Well I was glad to see that we had a false break to the downside which missed my entry by 5 pips (thanks also to GFTs larger than normal G/J spreads), had it been with Oanda I would have been in short. Got strong rejection from the underside with a pin close before smashing through the top. Profit of 70% was taken at the 200EMA which is also at past PZ. I moved SL to BE after the 50 pips was made but allow the trade to run based on the momentum of the move. I have taken 70% off to cover the loss of the AUD/NZD which past a tightening SL. I tightened...
Closed the remaining position 20 pips shy of 131.00 BRN. This is also a very strong PZ with numberous S/R flips throughout. Represents the 50% retrace if the swing and I am now considering short options depending on what happens here.

RT
  • #455
  • Nov 3, 2010 9:17am Nov 3, 2010 9:17am
Quoting Razor_trader
Closed the remaining position 20 pips shy of 131.00 BRN. This is also a very strong PZ with numberous S/R flips throughout. Represents the 50% retrace if the swing and I am now considering short options depending on what happens here.

RT
Short 130.96 SL 131.26

Got my tight signal of the 15 min chart (aggressive again with 1%) for a number of good reason. Just going to set an alarm now and head to bed.

RT
  • #456
  • Nov 4, 2010 7:45am Nov 4, 2010 7:45am
Quoting Razor_trader
Short 130.96 SL 131.26

Got my tight signal of the 15 min chart (aggressive again with 1%) for a number of good reason. Just going to set an alarm now and head to bed.

RT
Alarm woke me last night (I slept on the couch thats how keen I was) to tell me I was up 50 pips. Decided to just move SL to BE and then had next alarm tell me that my SL had been hit. Went to work today and have just come back to see that short wouldnt have held with the SL at it original position so I chalk that up as a little win.

Nothing much looking at the moment, might have an early night.

RT
  • #457
  • Nov 4, 2010 9:11am Nov 4, 2010 9:11am
Short AUD/JPY. Hourly IB of rejection of 82.00, above 5 EMA, hourly and 4 hourly divergence. Needs to pass the past B swing high which is very close to have a chance lower. Will monitor action and see whether to cut short or let it work.
  • #458
  • Nov 4, 2010 6:15pm Nov 4, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting Razor_trader
Short AUD/JPY. Hourly IB of rejection of 82.00, above 5 EMA, hourly and 4 hourly divergence. Needs to pass the past B swing high which is very close to have a chance lower. Will monitor action and see whether to cut short or let it work.
Trade failed to break lower than the previous high and I had gone to be with measures in place. Another little loss for the week. I am out now until Monday although I may see what happens over the NFP news period and see if I can get a nice entry

RT
  • #459
  • Edited Dec 22, 2011 5:31pm Dec 21, 2011 6:36pm | Edited Dec 22, 2011 5:31pm
Well it has been a great 2011. While it has been over 12 months since I posted here I have been around the tracks, visiting and reading some great threads and catching up time to time with some people on Twitter.

I didn't trade as actively at the start of this year but I started a small challenge for myself at the beginning of September and it has been a very good period for me. I must thank some great people and their threads. Up until around July/August I was struggling to understand something that I was seeing, well not so much struggling just more I could see it more and more but just lacked a bit of faith to trade it. Coming across and reading Toms thread 'Fail Better', I saw a group who were trading much of what I was seeing and it was great. SFP, that was some new lingo to what I commonly looked as Reversal PA but it went a step further in that if the SFP/Reversal was the failure to break higher/lower then the probability of the new few candles supporting the SFP where much greater. This change something for me in that I had conviction to enter a trade then and not what for the confirmation.

What this did for me was is meant I was stopped out less often, position sizes where usually better and my point of entry was far better than in some cases where I may have been in 20 points later or not in at all. The latter usually was the case as the market steamed away. When I combined alot of this with some things that I already traded it meant I slept better knowing it is all I could have done. That to me is the essence of trading.

Markets have not be the most favourable and I have seen a decline in my win rate since September. However of those losses quite a few were positive and I held them for longer than I should have. Some would have been full losses as I chose not to move my SL, some would have been fractional however there were just as many times, if not more so as I am in solid positive territory due to letting a few trades run longer. My entry's allowed for a better R/R as I am generally in the move earlier than in the past. In the end, alot of the trades I have taken have not been a absolute lows or highs for a given period but at points where there was a high chance that with a correctly placed SL, the market would be favourable in giving you returns.

As it stands my stats that I have kept running since September have been extrememly convincing. The account size was enough to have me trade smart and feel pain when bad choices were made. I have included a capture of my chart to show the progression. As it stands;

Wins-84
Losses-66
%-56
PF-1.86
ROI- 72.56%
Longest win streak=7
Longest Loss streak=6

Now a few things. The PF is quite high in comparison to values I have seen in the past however I no longer trade with a set% of risk per trade. If I learnt something this year is that there are times when a highly probable situation will arise and you need to stamp some authority on it. The figure could have been higher as there were 3 occasions where I place a risk of 7-10% on a trade, scaled out at a point and closed out when I was comfortable with the gains. One of those was on the AUD/USD which would still be in play today and it reached at its peak around 700 pips. I took far less than that on the average. Had I had a stomach that would have been happy to watch it disappear for the chance at 500 pips then that would be great but I have found logical areas of profit taking suit me more.

2012 will hold a new round of challenges as I look to continue to build upon my results. The world is still uneasy and the problems that the financial sectors face is far from solved. I will attempt to log more hours on this thread now I have some more time up my sleeve.

Trade safe, have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
RT
  • #460
  • Dec 22, 2011 5:32pm Dec 22, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting Razor_trader
Well it has been a great 2011. While it has been over 12 months since I posted here I have been around the tracks, visiting and reading some great threads and catching up time to time with some people on Twitter.

I didn't trade as actively at the start of this year but I started a small challenge for myself at the beginning of September and it has been a very good period for me. I must thank some great people and their threads. Up until around July/August I was struggling to understand something that I was seeing, well not so much struggling...
My chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Balance FX.JPG Size: 59 KB
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