GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

even if we do pass resistance at 5960, it wont go much higher that 6000 i think.. stop at 6100 is enough

UK data this morning has caused price to be rejected at 5920 meaning we were unable to break yesterdays high. We seem to have formed a HnS pattern outside the top of the 4 hr channel...if this next 4hr candle remains below 5920 we can easily end back into the channel pre NFP's figures which means a better than expected figure could send us towards the bottom of the channel i.e. support 5471.

Dollar dx also seems to have found support around 80.50 area.

Stocky

Good day to all.

Well, it would appear that with the numbers being rolled out this week so far, that much anticipated slide back down the hill of recovery appears to be gaining momentum.

...and nobody passes comment upon this? Come on traders, where is the invective towards our political and financial leaders? It is so much appreciated by readers of this thread, I think.

My excuse - just got back from a long weekend with the wife in London, and then had to jump quickly on a flight to now be in Asia for a few weeks of work.

Anyway, interesting respect of the fib studies on the attached 4hr GU chart. Yeah, it may look like spaghetti, but regular observers note how I build up my charts based on swings.

Okay, back to Brian Johnson rolling it with Angus Young.

GU is back inside the 4hrly channel and well on its way to 5471/ 1.53 level. Gloomy inflation report and speach from King only helping us lower.
Im keeping a close eye on the S&P500, especially the 1100 level and the 200MA below it. A break below will see stops going off and bring GU lower much quicker.

Dollar Index has also reached daily support at 80/ 79.90 and bounced breaking out the daily decending trendline.

GU average true range for the day is 152 pips which has already been exceeded. Hence watching the 1100 level and idex for clues if we are going to make further lows through NY.

Stocky

PA approaching a daily 20 EMA - it has bounced so far from this support for as far back as June.

Sorry, no chart, just a quick note.

If it breaks and closes below, the MP may be targetted this week.

...sir, I was looking forward to your mentioned submission.

Well, holding the shorts on GU and GY, stops at BE, and as Brian has been blaring to me this evening, I'm kissin' dynamite, but that's the way I like to rock and roll.

It's a bloodbath out there, be careful all.

Congratulations on your 500th post! Right then. I've been trading GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP in the last few days. My round up of GBP follows shortly.

...yes, it is amazing how quickly one can be reminded of how much gas one can expel in such a short period of time.

If this bearish bar stays "engulfing" then next significant support is monthly at 1.54 and I would see it as a convincing resumption of the downtrend. There's some daily support at 1.5450 ish. Apart from profit taking retracements it should go straight down. We wish! Equities have built this round of dollar strength.



Here's an H4 chart showing the support from which we just bounced.



OK that's all I have. I know it'll have you all banging your heads on the desk saying "Wow! smikester, I wish I'd thought of that!" Just can't help it.

Seriously, though, I like the orange spot on Stocky's chart above. I think he nailed it, as far as one could...

I would be interested in an explanation of the obvious confluences around the white 50% level on your last chart. Also what you were on when you designed the template.

Off to work shortly, but thought that I would respond with my support projections.

Previous projections upon blue zone, as discussed int he attached charts:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post3896703

This is what I look for:

Hullo guys!

Still sitting here with a bunch of August DAX puts that are looking less and less happy each week. Theta has already taken a few as low as they'll go. Haven't been willing to take on too much risk on top of those trades, so just been sitting and watching the charts quietly.

DX looks good for the macro bears (my sentiment tag has been GBPUSD bearish since Jul29), but I think there is a chance of ranging here for a little while between the horizontal lines. This fits with Stocky post at the top of this page (bottom of channel then back up) I love the RSI close at 49.9...

I would be happy to buy some GBP at 1.6 if we had a weekly close above there, otherwise plenty of scope before the downtrend officially resumes. Of course the markets could be re-aligning with reality in which case it could get very bad very fast but who knows.

Have a bad feeling that this rush into US Treasuries (10y looks like it wants to test 2.5% yield) will be followed by a much much faster stampede for the exits from debt markets as a whole.

Good luck to those still playing with 100:1 and think they will be the lucky ones to spot the shit right before it hits the fan. I am sticking to buying puts and calls and trying to work on a delta-neutral medium risk options trading model so I can make money buying and selling volatility instead of price.

LOL. Very cheerful post.

(Note to self: buy more tinned food)

... busy assessing debt in the West and the collapse of China as an export market as we know it.

Hopefully have some printed waffle in time for the weekend, in order for us all to be caught in constant rumination, as opposed to smiling at a weekend reprieve from all of the cries of impending disaster.

Hey, at least I try to give us something other than sanitized editorial to ponder.

When market liquidity had a basis I had no issue taking on leverage. Take a look at Eurodollar and Euribor. Hell, I was even watching Euroswiss and Euroyen (Tibor) recently. US Treasuries and bond yields are testing or gunning for all time lows or even 0%. Things are not functioning well in capital markets. Yet we here from the US that retail investors pulling out of stocks and mutual funds in huge numbers and dumping the money into tax free muni, state and corporate debt. Stocks have been ignoring this and somehow forex and a few commods (aka the "risk basket") got hitched on for that last rally up. Sooner or later either the behemoth debt markets or equity space will be proved right - but it can't be both in this case I believe.

Re the above comments capital markets. Woke up to see these two posts:

Mish on US Junk Bonds:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...digestion.html
Calculated Risk on European Bond Spreads (the chart is a must see):
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...g-to-rise.html

So I am definitely not the only one thinking this way.

And good for you.

I always like to read of how the little guy sticks two fingers up at the bully, and walks their own path.

Just read that the Slovakian Parliament has reversed – by a 69 to 2 vote - the decision of their previous government, and told the EU that they will not contribute to the 110 Billion Euro fund to help Greece. This, along with the jump in debt assurance costs and latest unemployment figures for Greece (and Ireland – the big one this week), must have contributed to the slack in EU this week.

Ivan Miklos, the Slovak Finance Minister, was convincing in his ridicule of the bailout, stating: “I do not consider it solidarity if it is solidarity between the poor and the rich, of the responsible with the irresponsible, or of taxpayers with bank owners and managers.” Quite so, Sir.

The riposte from Olli Rehn – the EU Economic Affairs Commissioner was, “I can only regret this breach of solidarity within the euro area and I expect the eurogroup and the Council to return to the matter in their next meeting.” Regret it or not, your folly, Olli, is that you believe that we believe that you can save the Euro from the abyss. Actually, I think you know where things are heading, but cannot be as frank as the Slovaks. Solidarity sometimes incurs hard truths that are counter to the thought of the cabal… if the cabal, or functionaries of said cabal condemns these thoughts, does not continuing solidarity to said cabal become servitude?

Well, it might, as a spokesman for Olli made the comment that, “Slovakia will not face any legal penalty for its Greek u-turn, but should expect unspecified political consequences.” I say old chap, is not that a threat, and not respect for outside opinion?

Either way, Mr. Miklos, I suspect knowing a thing or two about cabalistic solidarity, had a point in his rejoinder. “It's true the top politicians in the eurozone are not excited by our position and that we have irritated them quite a lot. But this is only because they have been creating alibis for themselves and we have held up their behaviour to a mirror.”

I love it!

P.S. Sinner – great links , and dire charts .

P.P.S. For the superstitious amongst us, it is Friday the thirteenth today.

GU is approaching 4hr channel support line also the 50% fib area of rise since 5124 22nd July....I would expect price to stall and range around here if not even perform a small retrace. Given this is going to be our 2nd retest of 5560 (50%fib) I would be cautious buying as a test of 5471 monthly support is almost inevitable now which would mean we have to break out the bottom of the 4hr channel and test the 61.8 fib.

S&P500 broke below the 1100 support and daily 200MA yesterday which helped London open sell the retrace carried out through Asia. There is alot of talk about traders pushing for the 1050 level which we may see through NY today. This coupled with the dollar dx making a clear close outside the descending daily TL and MACD cross on the daily indicates dollar strength is on the cards at least until the dx hits resistance at 83.50/70.

Stocky

EJ Analysis

Price was rejected at 114.15/ 113.14 visible on the daily. I would expect us to attempt a retest of the daily channel support and try to make new lows. current support at 109.35 is holding but with the weekly candle looking to close as a very large bearish engulfer I expect us to continue bearish movement next week targeting 107.32.

Overall I am very bearish with the Euro and see EU currently bouncing at a 38.2 retrace of a much bigger down move. With the EU weekly candle finishing as huge bearish engulfer thats a strong sign for overall euro weekness next week....Eurostoxx also below the daily 200 and making lower lows.

Stocky