vsa with Malcolm | Page 104 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

VSA-divergence trading 187 replies

How to Blow $200 account using VSA--- 594 replies

VSA Journal 57 replies

VSA broker history change datas 11 replies

Attachments: vsa with Malcolm
Exit Attachments

vsa with Malcolm

  • #2,061
  • Aug 9, 2010 11:45pm Aug 9, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting malcolmb14
look at the forums every one is now a bear .... one little kiss resistance is not distribution . I doubt it anyway maybe this move has done what it purpose is.

for me I will be looking for any up moves to have weakness to confirm that this is a reversal playing out, but right now it is very odd for this move to happen in asia the day before fomc. almost 120 pip move ending in shake out on 30 min eu and stopping vol gu 30 min . I am not sure that they are not done with this yet.

1.5700 seems to be the critical support level on weekly
I'm interested in your volumes, but for me, I see it like this: If the u/j pair has bottomed out, and if cable and fibre have topped out, then the common denominator (the greenback) will probably show it. USDX is still rising.....which adds fuel to my fire.

From a fundamental standpoint, it's common knowledge that Japan's economy is in deep shit.....UK isn't in quite so deep, but it's still giving cause for concern. EZ we all know about. Doesn't matter how Trichet dresses it up, EZ has a long way to go yet. So, I see the euro as getting to the point of being overvalued against the greenback....same for cable. The Yen is way overvalued against the greenback as we all know. Now, is the USA economy any worse that Japan, EZ or UK? I think not.

I'm not a bear yet, I need something more, which is why I'm keeping an eye on your thread. I don't have such a good understanding of volume that I am prepared to trade because of it, but it is very interesting and perhaps it will show confluence (or not) with what I have been thinking.

I'm not going to enter anything long term until after FOMC, but I think that the announcement will make or break this recent pa....I hope it helps to restore some sense to the currency values and ignores the talking heads rhetoric/bullshit!

5c
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #2,062
  • Aug 9, 2010 11:46pm Aug 9, 2010 11:46pm
Quoting malcolmb14
look at the forums every one is now a bear .... one little kiss resistance is not distribution . I doubt it anyway maybe this move has done what it purpose is.

for me I will be looking for any up moves to have weakness to confirm that this is a reversal playing out, but right now it is very odd for this move to happen in asia the day before fomc. almost 120 pip move ending in shake out on 30 min eu and stopping vol gu 30 min . I am not sure that they are not done with this yet.

1.5700 seems to be the critical support level on weekly
I'm waiting for a retest of 1,5830 during london and if there is a rejection off it, i'm targeting 1,5725 & 1,5640 as next support level.

It might be a crazy day...dollar buying day!!!
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #2,063
  • Aug 10, 2010 12:34am Aug 10, 2010 12:34am
Quoting HiddenGap
VSA is very logical. Supply was dumped into the market and as price moves back onto the area where sellers let themselves be known, we are now seeing no activity as price rises. The BBs are not interested in higher prices. If they are not interested in higher prices it must be because the expect prices to move lower.
Yes, and this pattern just keep repeating. And vice versa on the downside.
We are just waiting to see these patterns.

In this thread is one who wrote that he did not know anything about trading 3 months ago, and now he understands what is happening on the market.

So, VSA must be very logical.

Trend channels gives us these areas where we see these patterns.

It is easy, like Tom Williams keep saying, only problem must be overanalysing, just push the button, when everything is like it should be.
Low risk, high probality trades.
  • #2,064
  • Aug 10, 2010 1:25am Aug 10, 2010 1:25am
Quoting malcolmb14
look at the forums every one is now a bear .... one little kiss resistance is not distribution . I doubt it anyway maybe this move has done what it purpose is. ...
1.5700 seems to be the critical support level on weekly
is it not possible the Pros unloaded/sold last week (& much earlier) near 1.6000 (last unload was last Friday NFP day)?
that's 1 way i see it.
to me, 1.5700 - 1.5800 is critical. let's see.
  • #2,065
  • Aug 10, 2010 1:45am Aug 10, 2010 1:45am
Quoting malcolmb14
I am guessing by 11am Pacific tomorrow it will start rising .... lol

5800 is the critical level to watch on 4 hour and bottom of channel .

we may get a nice long off that level .
Okay here's my personal take on this. I was too tired to post during Asia.

I've always mentioned the importance of trend lines in trading. I just love 'em especially when you combine with VSA. Although I was expecting to see buying, the market proved me wrong, supply entered into the market. We are supposed to trade what we see right? Well here's what I saw which made me go short during Asia.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cccfc.gif Size: 34 KB


I woudn't regard the selling climax bar as strength but rather weakness in an effort to fall as it broke support and there was no demand after that. Pure weakness in my book.

Going into London here's what I'd like to see.. I strong move up to the lower (broken) channel line for a retest [around ~1.32] , maybe a buying climax, up-thrust, or other signs of weakness would give me a confident short right there.

Lastly looking at the daily, notice how we have been going long without any real retrace. Not saying this is the beginning of a fall as I do not agree with that but at least we know markets don't move in a straight line. In the smaller charts though it may look like a little fall.
  • #2,066
  • Aug 10, 2010 1:57am Aug 10, 2010 1:57am
usd index is rising on what time frame .. daily still down till 82 taken out

weekly still down with potential 80 then 78.5 targets

lets think about this for one minute..... we know market can be manipulated hence we use vsa.

eu and gu move 60 pip between us and london ... maybe 80 , but a fraction of the normal days range. then in asia they move 140 for apparently no reason on low volume . something does not add up .

If we get a move up to 50 % or 61.8% of this drop and then we see a no demand bar on a 60 min chart in London or us session then I can assume that a new trend is beginning on the daily .

should be interesting week moving forward from fomc

Interesting fact ...whatever the direction of the eu from fomc to 4 pm est this 90% of time continues thru asia and London

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2605.png Size: 252 KB




Quoting realjumper
I'm interested in your volumes, but for me, I see it like this: If the u/j pair has bottomed out, and if cable and fibre have topped out, then the common denominator (the greenback) will probably show it. USDX is still rising.....which adds fuel to my fire.

From a fundamental standpoint, it's common knowledge that Japan's economy is in deep shit.....UK isn't in quite so deep, but it's still giving cause for concern. EZ we all know about. Doesn't matter how Trichet dresses it up, EZ has a long way to go yet. So, I see the euro as getting to the...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,067
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:01am Aug 10, 2010 2:01am
Quoting malcolmb14
usd index is rising on what time frame .. daily still down till 82 taken out

weekly still down with potential 80 then 78.5 targets

lets think about this for one minute..... we know market can be manipulated hence we use vsa.

eu and gu move 60 pip between us and london ... maybe 80 , but a fraction of the normal days range. then in asia they move 140 for apparently no reason on low volume . something does not add up .

If we get a move up to 50 % or 61.8% of this drop and then we see a no demand bar on a 60 min chart in London or us...
I didn't mean that the USD Index had changed it's trend.....just that it was rising. There's nothing significant in that on it's own....it's just someting to bear in mind.

The (relatively) small rise in the u/j pair, the (relatively) small drop in cable and fibre, and the (relatively) small rise in the USDX. None of the trends have changed, but it's worth watching to see *if* they are going to change.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #2,068
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:07am Aug 10, 2010 2:07am
GU M15

Has everyone got this huge volume during Asia?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 54.PNG Size: 103 KB
  • #2,069
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:09am Aug 10, 2010 2:09am
Quoting juhanimi
Yes, and this pattern just keep repeating. And vice versa on the downside.
We are just waiting to see these patterns.

In this thread is one who wrote that he did not know anything about trading 3 months ago, and now he understands what is happening on the market.

So, VSA must be very logical.

Trend channels gives us these areas where we see these patterns.

It is easy, like Tom Williams keep saying, only problem must be overanalysing, just push the button, when everything is like it should be.
Low risk, high probality trades.

Who's that?
  • #2,070
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:12am Aug 10, 2010 2:12am
that was not a true selling climax as next bar was not really up and closing above mid bar.

supply did enter the market on a 15 min at 1.5960 this morning. I missed the down trade and could not find another entry I liked , plus if this is really a downtrend forming i have loads of time to enter in a sell position , right now though I have a test after shake out 1.5780 , lets see if this area holds in london and we get our retrace off it . For eu 1.3150 as shown early on a shake out 30 min .

3150 and 1.5770 area support zones for now

If something is suspect then it typically is. 140 pip move in asia for what ? es moved 5 points , not abnormal in asia . This move is some kind of positioning ahead of tomorrows announcement .

Quoting wh1zz0
Okay here's my personal take on this. I was too tired to post during Asia.

I've always mentioned the importance of trend lines in trading. I just love 'em especially when you combine with VSA. Although I was expecting to see buying, the market proved me wrong, supply entered into the market. We are supposed to trade what we see right? Well here's what I saw which made me go short during Asia.

Attachment

I woudn't regard the selling climax bar as strength but rather weakness in an effort to fall as it broke support and there was no...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,071
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:17am Aug 10, 2010 2:17am
Quoting Intel
GU M15
Has everyone got this huge volume during Asia?
my FXDD demo doesnt have that.
maybe u can check your other feeds.
  • #2,072
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:17am Aug 10, 2010 2:17am
Quoting Intel
GU M15

Has everyone got this huge volume during Asia?

i saw that before the drop . i thought wtf bad data .... maybe that was someone pressing that billion button again
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,073
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:18am Aug 10, 2010 2:18am
I've got the same. I'm assuming it's the volume equivalent of a bad tick.
  • #2,074
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:20am Aug 10, 2010 2:20am
Quoting Intel
GU M15

Has everyone got this huge volume during Asia?
LOL... wtf

Call your broker.
  • #2,075
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:21am Aug 10, 2010 2:21am
Quoting Intel
Who's that?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=80
  • #2,076
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:21am Aug 10, 2010 2:21am
Yep.

Quoting Intel
GU M15

Has everyone got this huge volume during Asia?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD08-10-2010.png Size: 14 KB
  • #2,077
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:24am Aug 10, 2010 2:24am
GU M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 55.PNG Size: 114 KB
  • #2,078
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:45am Aug 10, 2010 2:45am
Just playin the bounces.
  • #2,079
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:48am Aug 10, 2010 2:48am
nice play, Intel.
bounce, baby, bounce.

gu still at war around 1.5800.
let's see who wins.
  • #2,080
  • Aug 10, 2010 2:56am Aug 10, 2010 2:56am
Quoting juhanimi
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=80
Ha! I'm not making that much money yet!

f451
6 traders viewing now