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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #17,941
  • Aug 9, 2010 5:51am Aug 9, 2010 5:51am
Quoting 012
hahaha thats the plan FTI!.. we'll see.. interesting things are coming.. i am sure.. did you make any money on the WHEAT trade? some people i know made the killing of their lives...that was the MILLION dollar trade!!
=(.. nvm.. QE 2 coming up.. aug 10.. should present enough volatility to make some serious money.
No commodities for me, too much cartels.

lets see if this precursor for October gloom.

regards
  • #17,942
  • Aug 9, 2010 5:53am Aug 9, 2010 5:53am
Quoting dakoo
Grains like wheat and corn have crazy volatility. and the gaps are absolutely insane... they scare the hell out of me. hehe
You haven seen volitility of orange juice , sugar, coffee and pork bellies yet la
esp the latter.

regards
  • #17,943
  • Aug 9, 2010 6:16am Aug 9, 2010 6:16am
opportuniy to get some euro's on the cheap at 1.3258?
  • #17,944
  • Aug 9, 2010 6:37am Aug 9, 2010 6:37am
Greetings to all!

Is there anyone who happen to have a document of this thread in MS word format?

I've searched through the attachments in this thread without success. I'm considering to "Burn this thread and drink" , and absorb as much as I can with my humble mind.

Is there any advice that can be given to a new student in FTI's "dancing style"

With much appreciation! Thanks!

To fellow Sg reans:

Happy National Day!

To fellow traders:

May your aspirations as divine as the angel and your intentions as clear as the crystal be revealed in the most meaningful way!

Namaste~
  • #17,945
  • Edited 7:24am Aug 9, 2010 7:06am | Edited 7:24am
I think it would be right to say that today's London session was only organized so I may get bored to death. Please make them do something in NY or I will have to jump out the window with just for the sake of doing anything at all.

Edit: it seams someone heart my calls as dollar finally started moving in sync across the board. What's even odder is that cable is acting steady rather then spiking from hell to heaven and back as it usually does around guard changes.
  • #17,946
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:37am Aug 9, 2010 7:37am
Hi guys, me again. Well, I thought about it some more and I took the advice of J-Pax I think it was... and I'm making one more succinct question.

I've started to realise that basically, in order to succeed in trading, a lot of people suggest sniping the market. The thing I find difficult to do is when I'm baby sitting the market, I start to overanalyse and overthink every pip and end up over trading. If I'm away from the screen and gaze at the prices a few times a day, I usually sometimes have a very profound feeling of either buy/sell or wait but the problem with the latter situation is that I end up missing a lot of moves, so the question is, how do I work around this? (I get these feelings sometimes when I'm babysitting but the overtrading as I said kills any profit or just locks me out of the market due to open bad trades).

And how do I weave this in with the original question in regards to saving trades using martingale and fibonacci progressions?
  • #17,947
  • Aug 9, 2010 10:02am Aug 9, 2010 10:02am
Quoting khidir
Hi Paul I am a newbie and was interested in your post about Ftis post number 59 How would you like to explain that for me since you have got your head around it.Interesting to hear your language =. Thanks James
Hello james,
Generally what i found interesting about the post was that.Us as clients of our brokers place say a long position thus the broker as market maker takes the opposite trade.He's forced to be in a short position all the way on the uptrend.So on the uptrend the maket makes a small retrace, traders typically get into a move up on retrace,placing stops below incase they were wrong and its a reversal. Brokers know traders do this and use there powers to force price artificially lower.Which does 2 things takes the trader who is making him short out of his trade whist getting into the trade at a much better price at the traders stop. when most of the stops are taken out the market price moves in the original upward move .

What I thought was if I'am building my long position on the downward 5minute timeframe move and any big spikes down collect more to bring my overall average position lower .Assumming the spikes are stop hunting in progress. I would be collecting good positions the same as the dealers.Then based on my initial bias of long due to looking at the daily time frame zoomed out .Showing price been moving up for some time.I would use the upward leg to take profits and manage position size watching price action to look for signs of weakness.
What I found at news time if am building long position and price spikes down try pick up some of the cheap currency.when the stronger trend resumes upward take profits.
Or if the news makes price spike up just take some profits and start new position when it goes down again.
This is only my interpretation
Hope it throws some light on the post for you.
On the other hand fti may say I'am totally wrong lol
It's been making money so am happy for now.
When i say weakness in price i mean if price on 5minute time frame has been putting in big green bars then starts to put in small green bars time to start taking profit. especially the cross bar with no green or red.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,948
  • Aug 9, 2010 10:39am Aug 9, 2010 10:39am
Another thing i used to do was to use my stop loss as a guage of risk/reward.got lots of trades were i was taken out then price went were i thought without me lol.
Everyone one say risk reward at least 2:1.
So i think i can get 20 pips i put stop 10 pips below entry =2:1 risk reward
price thinks lets have a rest slide down take stop out then start to feel strong an shoot up.
Fti says no stop.
your scout should not make you feel tense/anxious even if move 30 pips against, personally if it does its a soldier not scout,need reduce size to be correct scout to suit you.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,949
  • Aug 9, 2010 12:08pm Aug 9, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting paul1
Another thing i used to do was to use my stop loss as a guage of risk/reward.got lots of trades were i was taken out then price went were i thought without me lol.
Everyone one say risk reward at least 2:1.
We dont talk and think about this here at all...
Quoting paul1
So i think i can get 20 pips i put stop 10 pips below entry =2:1 risk reward
price thinks lets have a rest slide down take stop out then start to feel strong an shoot up.
If you are still thinking in terms of PIPS ....this is a rigidity i see ......

V
  • #17,950
  • Aug 9, 2010 1:17pm Aug 9, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Hi guys, me again. Well, I thought about it some more and I took the advice of J-Pax I think it was... and I'm making one more succinct question.

I've started to realise that basically, in order to succeed in trading, a lot of people suggest sniping the market. The thing I find difficult to do is when I'm baby sitting the market, I start to overanalyse and overthink every pip and end up over trading. If I'm away from the screen and gaze at the prices a few times a day, I usually sometimes have a very profound feeling of either buy/sell or wait...
I might not have a complete answer for you. However, you seem to be wanting to the predict the market too much. Its all about dancing with it, flowing with it. If you can manage your risk correctly and you are only right 51% of time you are making money.

In this thread you rarely see fti trying to teach us by telling us long or short at determined time.

I would tell you to sit down, write your own plan to manage your trades, see whats your risk appetite, dont over leverage, think of it this way. if you were to happen 10 bad trades in a row how you would manage your risk so that you can still trade?

Ah and don't forget that staying flat is also a position. Don't try to rush yourself into a trade because you dont want to miss a trade.... As the saying goes...there is always another trade around the corner.

Cheers
  • #17,951
  • Aug 9, 2010 1:22pm Aug 9, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
We dont talk and think about this here at all...


If you are still thinking in terms of PIPS ....this is a rigidity i see ......

V
No indianguyinny I no longer do these things just trying to show others examples of what i used to do before i took on this method.
Maybe some viewers still are ,and still don't realise why good trades are turning to loosers.
most brokers and educators advice the use of stops.
And why shouldn't they, after all how else can they take you out of your trade.
This method of getting out of a negative trades or even turning them positive at the very least beats the broker problem.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,952
  • Aug 9, 2010 1:29pm Aug 9, 2010 1:29pm
The way i look at stops now is like throwing money on floor.Your stops in obvious places would be hard to resist for any participants large enough to move market. I realise they dont target individuals they target large quantities of traders all placing stops around the same places.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,953
  • Aug 9, 2010 2:15pm Aug 9, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Hi guys, me again. Well, I thought about it some more and I took the advice of J-Pax I think it was... and I'm making one more succinct question.

I've started to realise that basically, in order to succeed in trading, a lot of people suggest sniping the market. The thing I find difficult to do is when I'm baby sitting the market, I start to overanalyse and overthink every pip and end up over trading. If I'm away from the screen and gaze at the prices a few times a day, I usually sometimes have a very profound feeling of either buy/sell or wait...
Hello atomic sheep i think i used to do same as you with analysing,
but once i've decided from daily/hourly timeframe which way the trend is,
thats the analysis done .
Your a long player or short based on your analysis.
So throw small scout in when you feel its gonna go your way.
then react with price (dance)
always know were your average price is.
a)Price goes your way add a little keeping average away from you so you can get out with profit even if it reverse a little.
b)Price goes against you got decide 1)you wanna get scout out now.
2)wait for retrace/ reverse in your favour add little get average closer in case its reveral in your favour
ultimately the method stays the same but you got to tailor it to suit yourself
my interpretation:-
1) Decide long or short
2) scale in using intial small scout add soldiers when you getting confident
3) Using reaveraging method instead of entry position to manage trade
4)individual entries wont all be winners but as long as price raises above your average you can start to take profits
Probably cant win individual battles but aim to win the war
Scale in starting with scout.
Cant trade today computers broke,engineer says it's the processor.
Any new millionaires today?
Am not the boss just trying to help while am bored.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,954
  • Aug 9, 2010 2:31pm Aug 9, 2010 2:31pm
Hello guys

Inserted Video


Do you think this is just gloom doom mumbojumbo

Regards,
  • #17,955
  • Aug 9, 2010 2:37pm Aug 9, 2010 2:37pm
Hi all!

I'm re-posting this, do I have to wait for moderators to activate my visibility?

Greetings to all!

Is there anyone who happen to have a document of this thread in MS word format?

I've searched through the attachments in this thread without success. I'm considering to "Burn this thread and drink" , and absorb as much as I can with my humble mind.

Is there any advice that can be given to a new student in FTI's "dancing style"

With much appreciation! Thanks!

To fellow Sg reans:

Happy National Day!

To fellow traders:

May your aspirations as divine as the angel and your intentions as clear as the crystal be revealed in the most meaningful way!

Namaste~
  • #17,956
  • Aug 9, 2010 3:06pm Aug 9, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting MyTbo
Hello guys

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udT3d...layer_embedded

Do you think this is just gloom doom mumbojumbo

Regards,
I would say part truth in there. its not a full analysis shown, yes we are a bit overextended, and although we do not have a lot of exports, wheat and beef are actually some of our biggest exports especially to countries like japan. the oil issues are probably the biggest concerns so thats where I do see some truth. thats one reason why we had the blunder in the gulf, an attempt to reduce our reliance on foreign oil in the long term.
  • #17,957
  • Aug 9, 2010 4:50pm Aug 9, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting Cfn
Hi all!

I'm re-posting this, do I have to wait for moderators to activate my visibility?

Greetings to all!

Is there anyone who happen to have a document of this thread in MS word format?

I've searched through the attachments in this thread without success....
Hi Namaste,

there's nothing wrong with your visibility status, it's just that there were a number of people before you who came asking for materials that would allow them to study what's been given here in short and that's why people tend to ignore such requests. The truth is it can't be done. You will have to go through the first 200 pages (roughly) and read it all carefully. Once you do that you will realize you need to do it again. And most likely once again after that. There was indeed a text file somewhere around and having read it myself I assure you - it's not going to do the job. Invest your time and efforts. Or don't - much like anything else in life it's up to you.

Regards
  • #17,958
  • Aug 9, 2010 5:51pm Aug 9, 2010 5:51pm
Quoting Setebos
Hi Namaste,

there's nothing wrong with your visibility status, it's just that there were a number of people before you who came asking for materials that would allow them to study what's been given here in short and that's why people tend to ignore such requests. The truth is it can't be done. You will have to go through the first 200 pages (roughly) and read it all carefully. Once you do that you will realize you need to do it again. And most likely once again after that. There was indeed a text file somewhere around and having read it myself...
definitely look for posts like http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1256
she also posted a bunch of chat sessions with FTI that are very usefull. and like setebos said, okthrough the first couple hudred pages, its a lot of reading but thats cheap compared to the hundreds of worthless books you could be reading.
  • #17,959
  • Aug 9, 2010 8:30pm Aug 9, 2010 8:30pm
Anyone here from sweden or norway. I am thinking of going in 3rd year there for an exchange to study half year and in februar I apply for korea hehe enjoy guys I'm back from holidays
  • #17,960
  • Aug 9, 2010 9:15pm Aug 9, 2010 9:15pm
Hi Setebos,

thank you for your advice, I'll read through them. I like the way you guide, straight, direct and 'nns' (no-nonsense-style).

Guess I'll have to copy paste into Ms word myself, so I can also read it even when I'm not in front of my com.

Anyway just for your information, Namaste is not my name, it is a greeting and salutation that has a deep meaning, which basically means, I recognize the Divine in you and bow to that, symbolizing the Oneness regardless of race/gender/religion/class etc etc.

Hi dracozny,

thank you for the link. I agree with what you say. Anyway the thought of my distaste in conventional working life, reading this thread is nothing. Anyway just to check with you guys, is the first 200 pages suffice to get a good grounding?

Namaste
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