Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

i c a trend reversal on daily for gu it should plunge down from here.... gj 140 odd the resistance on daily after that a plunge down.... this is what i c...

you can start thinking of GU levels of 1.5350 atleast,but i see it closer of 1.5250

where did u read all that

+- 300 pips on aud/usd

seems weakness in GJ not able to break the trend line and cci 20 is pointing down and MACD is not moving up,

Based on what exactly? I'm not saying its not possible and after 1800 pips up some retracement is due and eventually the dollar will rally, but seems to me your just pulling numbers out of the air and for no particular reason.. wishfull thinking.. guessing???

I would tend to agree with Ukdaytrader.. the only thing holding GY right now is the UJ, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a big rally there..

If GU plunges how does that equate to a rising GY?? If GU plunges from here, then GY is going nowhere but down..

think about it

This looks to be shaping up to be a tough trading week, in part because of the fx markets specifically awaiting the FOMC statement, and other GBP specific news including Mervyn's wording. I say tough because many of the major pairs are up against key resistances, TLs or major fibs, and either looking toppy (GU, EU), or unprogressive (GJ).

Also tough because we look to be breaking correlations - we're getting another NY market melt-up - although robot induced IMO - yet GY isn't rallying with it at all, barely moving through the day. GU 1.6 resistance looks formidable, and oddly, now @ 12:30 EST, we're seeing one of the biggest (relative) drops of the day drops in EU, GU, GJ. (Odd, because it's lunch hour

Overall, I think sterling strength is wavering. Key IMO is what will happen to the US$. UJ is off it's 15yr low @ 85, an impressive 80+ pips. It's up against the recent TL resistance, and is likely to drop/waver around here until tomorrow's fed statements are released and assessed. Although many have been calling for retracements on GU, perhaps we're going to see a retest of 1.575, and if bullishness is to be confirmed, 1.55x would not surprise me. But again, I think bullishness/bearishness needs to be confirmed.

Which brings me to August. Traders are coming back into the market. And, they have to put their money somewhere; hedge fund owners can't sit on cash and publish statements to investors telling them their money performed like it was in a 0.5% bank account, and, they can't keep it in a mattress - they have to justify their middlemanness. (I know, it's not a word) So now the confluence of this money hitting equities vs. the global economic recovery & status becomes a timing issue; we know the markets have been running on low volume auto-pilot, ignoring the bad news - which is fine - but is the low really in? August doesn't have a history of major crashes, yet, the market needs to confirm bullishness or come out of a new low with convincing buying by real players. I don't think we're going to see definitive confirmation of where we're heading until we hit Sept/Oct. Lots of issues have been swept under the rug - and they're less likely to stay there as time moves on. Am including an image of this PDF report, that draws on past experience that we're not out into the clear yet.

Also, Ashraf's explanation of tomorrow's FOMC & fx impact is quite good and worthy of a listen, so much so, I need to listen to it again. Great opportunity to understand some of the increasing complex levers and correlations in the market.

On positions, I am short GU from the recent high, long UJ (probably to cash in today or in Asia) and no position in GY - am not a fan of trading GY recently.

I'm expecting a strong breakout within the next 2 -3 days.

No trades for today. We have to see what happens after Federal Committee meeting. It could take some time. I will watch 135.40 level closely. It can be a place to go long and it could be a breakout point down. I am neutral at the moment.

Agree with this, also if i short one of this pair i keep the other one free of trade (for a same account)

One thing we have to clear up is that QE2 (lite or full cream) does not translate immediately into a devaluation of the USD (not too sure why you see GBP strength in this scenario either). Sentiment is the real driver and like the correlation we've been enjoying for the past 2-3 yrs if the herd sees the market go higher (stimulus works) then the USD will fall. Conversely if this fails you'll simply see another flight to safety and all carries will once again go to the slammer. The only circumstance where this relationship will break down and USD starts depreciating directly with each intervening QE (no matter which way the market goes) is if they have a massive treasury bond auction failure but then in this case, all bets are off as hyperinflation sets in.

Cashed out on my UJ a little late at 85.9 and just exiting 25% of my 1.597 (avg) shorts for 160 pips @ 1.5816.

I may regret my partial exit later, but I don't see frankie fakeout or London getting this back up to 1.6 for a retest too soon; we've broken through some key fib levels and if anything, I see a move back to 1.590/1.592 in the next 18 hours, then lower.

Overall am rather puzzled on such a comparatively unusual and strong move during Asia esp. after one of the most meager recent NY, London sessions prior to that; it would appear they are selling euros and sterling - an interesting combination. UJ looking stronger. All 3 have central bank statements due out this week - sterling's are expected to be negative.

I can't help but think London will buy this move ... perhaps frankie will fake it out another 50 pips to 1.5757/1.577, but the question is how high/if London will take it, and what will the CB statements bring.

Interesting to note GU has returned to the pre-NFP low and this almost 200 pip off the 1.6 high is the biggest retrace of the weeks rise up, since the testing of 1.52-1.544 hence my earlier wording re will this current retrace confirm further bullishness, or be the start of some lengthy bearishness?

GUCCI...

You may regret your Bullish Bias...for G/J as of last Friday...

RSI 15 m.... below 32...It does not happen every day...

136.32 should hold..for further Bear.....IMO...

Looking for Double Bottom at 134.19...

Trade your charts...

What i can see is the main trend is down now. But i just bought @ 135.52 with a TP: 138.00

My eyes showing me this is the target area.

Entered a short at 136.35 and exited at 135.60. Now going long from 135.75, stop is at 135.25. Profit is at 136.35 (previous resistance)

long @ 135.36, tp @ 136.5 (weekly pivot point) & sl @ 135.16

Took some normal-timed shuteye and not regretting it one bit. Looks like frankie fakeout was on vacation and London doesn't know what to do - or do they?

HiddenGap said it quite well elsewhere: "The Big Boys are not interested in higher prices. If they are not interested in higher prices it must be because they expect prices to move lower."

I have no qualms about being off on the direction of the direction here, but see it did visit 1.57735. Some signs of buying on the hourly after that, but it gets a good whack by sellers so I don't think the down move is done yet.

Sterling news in 15 min will be of inconsequential impact to GU, GY. Intriguing what NY will bring us, as FOMC isn't until 2:15, and trade volume then is among the lowest of the day, with London packed up - so true reaction will show for London Wednesday morning.

Here's the same chart zoomed in, just threw on a basic SR indi. Check how accurately the fibs are being played. 1.5757 likely to be tested during this session. Now, back to some quality shut eye...

Although this fall/rise has been pretty strong, there will be shenanigans on the way, but I still think some major Dollar strength will continue to play out.

Believe it or not, I'm seeing GU at <148 and UCh >1.10.

Obviously, the trouble with stating such numbers is that FF is full of different traders trading different ways, with different beliefs, but there it is. Make of it what you will.

If stop is hit I will go short at 135.24 with a stop at 135.50. That would be a breakout trade.