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Market Random and Predictable Parts

  • #21
  • Aug 7, 2010 11:29pm Aug 7, 2010 11:29pm
There must be something in those herd instinct and collective unconscious things. A friend and I were just discussing randomness. He sent me a couple of charts he crafted with Amibroker. They're random! But I could swear they were forex charts. I'll try to get some more, they look interesting.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: random.png Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: random1.png Size: 11 KB
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #22
  • Aug 7, 2010 11:40pm Aug 7, 2010 11:40pm
:S We'd need to check the algorithm that created those charts.


Quoting spekitox
There must be something in those herd instinct and collective unconscious things. A friend and I were just discussing randomness. He sent me a couple of charts he crafted with Amibroker. They're random! But I could swear they were forex charts. I'll try to get some more, they look interesting.
  • #23
  • Aug 7, 2010 11:47pm Aug 7, 2010 11:47pm
Quoting amherag

I just wanted to state that the market, in its essence, has some randomness or chaos in it.
It is known as non-deterministic chaotic.
  • #24
  • Aug 8, 2010 12:06am Aug 8, 2010 12:06am
Quoting spekitox
There must be something in those herd instinct and collective unconscious things. A friend and I were just discussing randomness. He sent me a couple of charts he crafted with Amibroker. They're random! But I could swear they were forex charts. I'll try to get some more, they look interesting.
Must not be very many dealers trading in your random market. That or they've all quit taking their Adderall or maybe there is only one liquidity provider who can get away with quoting large spreads.
  • #25
  • Oct 18, 2016 6:31pm Oct 18, 2016 6:31pm
Quoting amherag
I was thinking on a "perfect system", just like in physics you sometimes develop perfect systems just to study the essence of the problem (like machines without friction or loss of energy). That's why I didn't add the spread. I'd agree with the idea of the market being chaotic. What I wanted to "prove" or actually get some agreement from some of you, is that the market has "something" like randomness. I'll call this randomness chaos from now on. Thinking about this concept is actually helping me on my systems development. My point wasn't to say...
Exactly, if the market is random your system would fail, probably, all trading systems and the people who can win money today, not could win because of random, but i want to know if some one can concrete prove if market is random, i canīt prove that is random but i canīt prove that is about logic
  • #26
  • Oct 18, 2016 6:50pm Oct 18, 2016 6:50pm
Quoting spekitox
There must be something in those herd instinct and collective unconscious things. A friend and I were just discussing randomness. He sent me a couple of charts he crafted with Amibroker. They're random! But I could swear they were forex charts. I'll try to get some more, they look interesting. {image} {image}
I donīt know if could be herd instinct

Herd instinct Definition: Herd instinct is a mentality characterized by a lack of individual decision-making or thoughtfulness, causing people to think and act in the same way as the majority of those around them. In finance, a herd instinct relates to instances in which individuals gravitate to the same or similar investments based almost solely on the fact that many others are investing in those stocks. The fear of regret of missing out on a good investment is often a driving force behind herd instinct.

I think is very difficult to people think in the same way by generating pattern in the chart and think the market would be up or fail, We would be all winers but to be winers need to ve looser because Supply and demand, and the capacity human is very limited to analyze that kind of charts based in your photos. Based in your photos i think that chart was from a forex chart of the market by my high knowledge in patterns.
  • #27
  • Last Post: Oct 18, 2016 7:01pm Oct 18, 2016 7:01pm
Usually I reject the comments I am a person who has a logic well above the average, it is logical to think that if the market were random the winners in the long term would lose money easily, countries would not have the same economy, is something very complex, people has no idea of how complex it is, is not only of who moves the market by that someone has a lot of money. (because i watch that people that generally only respond about lots when tal about moving the market) I am not going to talk about this is very complex is not only about forex, this is serious
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