Price Behaviour Trading - Gossip and Banters

Thanks for kind words OvT,

Unless I see some bad news coming for Chinese Yaun (in which case it will tank like anything and will be 80 before we know it), I say buy the dips only and forget about shorting this BULL. It pays 4 percent interest to be on the buy side and takes money if you are short. So BIG players are always on the look for buying / adding positions to dips. Very very strong currency Aus, Cad. There is Limited downside to this currency because of dollar strength.

ta
ams

Posted cable chart yesterday....

Below 152 is sell the rallies, and that's what we have seen today.

Major trend bearish, minor trend bearish....

150500 will act as a resistance. However, break of this doesn't confirm an UP trend , and next major RES is 51500. Having said that, I see H&S pattern on 4hr and 1 hr which might trigger buying towards 52 area. Any break above 152 again should be considered valid.


ta
ams

Hi brother,

I just give a 5star rate thread for your powerful work...

Hi FXAdvice,

Thanks very much for your kind words and rating the thread, appreciate it!!

ta
ams

X10
Have a great weekend Ams!

So as usual, let's target major currency indices for our weekly trade plan.

To summarise, I am long dollar and short anything opposite the dollar from past few weeks if you look at my posts.

Stongest currency: CAD, AUS, I recommend (BUY THE DIPS).
Weekest Currency: EUR (last week it was GBP, now euro), GBP. I recommend (SELL THE RALLY).

Strong Index: DOLLAR, CAD, AUS
Week Index: EURO, GBP, CHF, YEN

Interesting thread.

nice thread.. lets keep it going... i need to learn PA

@ams, . . .
And you decided you ain't gonna do this thread again? Na na na na, please we're waiting for more of your analysis.

Peace!

kindly educate me on what you learnt about price action. i am a recent member of this forum and am really keen to understand price action trading. i currently trade off pivots and its usually 50/50. not good.

I am happy to find quality stuff here and there once in a while! I will read your post from start and maby contribute in next weeks.

Wish you the best!

Thanks for the encouragement folks...

I am posting few LFX charts...they represent the overall scenario of where we are with currencies...

So peeps, I hope you are smart enough to know what to do when certain support/ resistance levels is broken. Still for some, BUY if it breaks to the UP side and SELL if it breaks to the down side. Be careful sometimes there are false breakout as you can see for yourself in all the charts. Try to see what the current trend is…as in my first post I mentioned look at the daily chart from "left to right" and see where the line is going..that is your trend.

How to know when the trend is changing. Draw a fib from high to lows on your daily chart if the price breaks above 50 percent fib..the trend is fading..time to look at the other side. If price isn't going anywhere like YEN chart it's worth scalping on high's and lows. USD index is in a downtrend this is merely a pullback I would be worried for trend change if it breaks above 1.80. Regardless of what I think, we play the game...BUY the strongest and sell the weakest. ATM, Dollar is pulling back so we look to BUY the dollar and SELL the rest. However, we have to ensure the main trend for dollar is (DOWN) as it can resume anytime without any warning :-)

The thing to watch is, USD and YEN charts as all other pairs are correlated to them…


Hope this helps, let me know if you have specific questions.


ta
ams

Just in case anyone is interested in CHF.

Excellent post! I suggest you, if I can, to stress attention on 23.6% witch define an consolidation zone.
If price stay under 23.6%, the PA is in fact consolidating making kinda flag.

Over GU now, 23.6% of last move down is at 1.5664 witch been tested today and 23.6% of last move up (daily) is at 1.5580 (yesterday low level tested). On usdx, 23.5% been tested yesterday at the pip! GPBX did broke the 23.6% of last move up yesteday.

You can see how this talk!

When we are correcting (over 23.6%), or only consolidating (under 23.% or under last low).
This is in a short senario, reverse vision for long.

And obviously I consider that trend is broken and reveral is near after a correction over 61.8.
But that's another story...

Keep on the good work.
I also trade naked almost!

take care!

If you are wondering why currencies are being sold against the dollar..the reason is USD YEN....

seems tide is about to change is UJ...short covering happening before the weekend, and we know what happens when shorts are covered...one more dive to the downside and then we go UP...

USD is not weak anymore...today's inflation surge in US might have prompted bears to cover their shorts.

Most trusted economies in the world are of , in order:
US,UK,germany, France

any hint of them raising IR OR stopping their printing press in current climate will prompt their currencies going higher.

ta
ams

Nice to see that you have your own thread based on PA, the only leading indicator, everything and anything else is a confluence for me.

I swing trade h4 and higher tfs and work on price demand and supply zones, but currently I am not really liking the Yen pairs at the moment on the higher tfs as they are not near demand/supply zones. The best ones for me are GJ and UJ. I will update you when I get home with some of my charts on the Yen pairs based on my own analysis and let me know what you think!

Catch you later!

The following analysis is on the big picture fundamentals and the monthly charts -

Interesting article in Moneyweek -

Emerging markets love Japan Inc.
“In my 20 years of covering Japan, I have never seen such a positively surprising earnings season,” says John Vail of Nikko Asset Management. Last quarter, profits at Japan’s listed companies rose fourfold from a year ago. The main reason was booming sales to emerging markets, says The Economist. Japanese firms are tapping the “new global middle class”. For instance, cosmetics group Shiseido has doubled its Chinese sales since 2005.

As the Japanese domestic market is anaemic and Western consumers are now tightening their belts, corporate Japan has been finding new markets. Exports to the US as a share of GDP may have halved over the past decade, but China’s share has more than doubled. Japan Inc. is also offsetting yen strength by using it to snap up foreign assets cheaply. There have been $11bn of acquisitions in emerging states this year, more than 2009’s total. With the economy in good shape and the key indices offering the lowest price-tobook value of all major markets, Japan still “looks tempting” for long-term investors, says Leslie P Norton in Barron’s.

So they are increasing exports to China where the currencies are pegged and exporting less to US, which really is not an incentive for the BoJ to weaken the yen, but they will have to weigh up all the options.

The yen hit last November's 14-year high against the dollar and has also gained ~16% against the euro this year. The yen attracts safe-haven flows because it is almost as liquid as the $. The poor outlook in US has lowered US bond yields, making the greenback the yen's rival haven, less appealing. Global risk aversion has eclipsed concerns over Japan's massive public debt load, so for now the yen can't do much wrong!

Monthly Chart analysis:

USDJPY: Considering where we are now on the monthly chart this has got to be a long-term buy soon.



Short-term, we could see some more downside to 80, but I am sitting on my hands for the moment and waiting for the demand to form between 80-85 before I jump in.

AUDJPY: We are smack bang in the middle of the curve.



On the lower tfs there are some buy/sell opportunities. I have marked these on the h4 chart as follows -



I will wait for it to hit one of my zones, before I jump in here. Some zones might require tightening up.

EURJPY: We have just broken through a bear point and with the Euro and therefore I am not willing to go long on this pair.



I think the Euro longer-term is in big trouble. 115.41-114.19 is the highest it will go in the short-term. If I were to go long on this pair, I would have to wait for 109.32-109.14 again, but I am just not comfortable longing this pair and personally I am thinking shorts here. 112.64-112.54 looks like a nice area on my h4 after last week's drop.

I also have analysis on other yen pairs, but I am running out of time as the golf course beckons.

I hope you enjoyed my analysis and I wish you great success with your trading.

Your analysis is welcome mate and seems port on...EJ, not a big fan..fundamentally Europe has only grown due to weak euro and cannot see them defying the odds and let it rise.

Unless UJ is out of limbo it's hard to see any yen pair rising. Although you do see a bottom for some atm.


ta
ams

Good day ams,

whats your view on daily dx inverted head & shoulder.. if the neckline broken then it will fly...so in correlation eurusd and gbpusd will go down..

so fundamentally.. is there any chances of dollar getting strong ?

Regards

Like your analysis mate, you are vouched

Indeed, very right it'll fly and will take everything against itself down with it. However, I am expecting some retrace before it does that. If it doesn't do any retrace, I would be skeptical of long term trend change. I am expecting 8450 but not so soon.

Anyways, we trade what we see , so if this level gives up, as you correctly mentioned we should be a buyer of dollar.


ta
ams