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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #17,881
  • Aug 6, 2010 4:41am Aug 6, 2010 4:41am
Reuters: S&P: more; "We are withdrawing the ratings because the central bank of the Swiss Confederation has no rated debt outstanding and, consequently, because of the lack of market interest in the ratings."
  • #17,882
  • Aug 6, 2010 5:24am Aug 6, 2010 5:24am
Good morning from uk.
Anyone who was doing same as me.
(Enter and market go against).
Try with micro lots/demo.
1) place 1 micro lot
2) when price moves down an you think it gonna retrace /reverse,add micro lot.
If your with the major trend probability is good that it will go in your direction at some point or at the least make a decent retrace for profit taking.
I give up trying to predict or use any indicators. just gonna try refine the above strategy.
I was following eur/usd thread on forex factory cause thats what am trading.Most people asking for opinions of those that believe they know which way price is gonna go. And the others telling them lol.
the results 50/50 lol
Maybe what i do is wrong but it making money an it doesnt matter what price does.its only got 2 choices so if i stick to one take profit when it moves my way. tighten my average up when it does start to move with me.
Am just trying to make something work like everybody else.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,883
  • Aug 6, 2010 5:26am Aug 6, 2010 5:26am
Quoting Fana
Why fti cannot post freely? regards
Been wondering same
1) who do you think is watching?
2) Why does it matter?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,884
  • Aug 6, 2010 5:32am Aug 6, 2010 5:32am
Typical entry this morning.
eur/usd at 1.3180
now at 1.3164
told ya 16 pips down
looks like it may retrace ?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,885
  • Aug 6, 2010 5:40am Aug 6, 2010 5:40am
Rare occurrence for me to get it this right.

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  • #17,886
  • Aug 6, 2010 5:48am Aug 6, 2010 5:48am
looks like retrace another micro 1.31650
average = 1.31725
anyone trading this pair?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,887
  • Aug 6, 2010 5:58am Aug 6, 2010 5:58am
Quoting paul1
looks like retrace another micro 1.31650
average = 1.31725
anyone trading this pair?

hey paul,

i only have a long scout in @ 1.3167, i used to be quick to add to my position... got into trouble very often esspecialy on days like today JOBNUMBERS!!!

what am i thinking?? make shure your position is not to big before the battle begins and before numbers your trades could be going nowhere....

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #17,888
  • Aug 6, 2010 6:09am Aug 6, 2010 6:09am
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  • #17,889
  • Aug 6, 2010 6:09am Aug 6, 2010 6:09am
Just a thought about probability.
flipping a coin for entry is about 50/50.
but only if you stick with heads or tails if you keep changing your mind no on can tell you the probable outcome .
if i can get 50/50 all i need now is make winners bigger than losers.
Experiment
1) flip coin 100 times
2) make heads win = more than tails win
3) look at results
my conclusion was that entry isnt as important as money management and position size.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,890
  • Aug 6, 2010 6:10am Aug 6, 2010 6:10am
Quoting SerpentDove
Hope you taking profits lol
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,891
  • Aug 6, 2010 6:13am Aug 6, 2010 6:13am
Quoting paul1
looks like retrace another micro 1.31650
average = 1.31725
anyone trading this pair?
The day is heavy on news and market is very very thin lately - this is dealers' playground - be very nimble and play safe. It's not as bad as yesterday, but still...
I would've stayed out of the market myself today if I didn't have open positions from yesterday.

Regards
  • #17,892
  • Aug 6, 2010 6:21am Aug 6, 2010 6:21am
Quoting j-pax
hey paul,

i only have a long scout in @ 1.3167, i used to be quick to add to my position... got into trouble very often esspecialy on days like today JOBNUMBERS!!!

what am i thinking?? make shure your position is not to big before the battle begins and before numbers your trades could be going nowhere....

kind greets, pax
thankyou for your advise.
I try keep real small scout.
but i check back to see what an average price move is.
start adding little bigger when it gets around this number.
recently its done some 90 + pips moves so am being cautious with adding at moment quite a few 40/50 pip moves though
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,893
  • Aug 6, 2010 6:28am Aug 6, 2010 6:28am
Quoting Setebos
The day is heavy on news and market is very very thin lately - this is dealers' playground - be very nimble and play safe. It's not as bad as yesterday, but still...
I would've stayed out of the market myself today if I didn't have open positions from yesterday.

Regards
Thankyou,
up to now if news comes an i got small position scouts etc.
at moment building position on down run so if news spikes price really low i put limit order in really low hopefully that brings my average really low quickly.
and then see what happens
if it spikes up i take profits
And throw a rookie scout in to start again.
Just learning at the moment but it seems to work
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,894
  • Edited 6:40am Aug 6, 2010 6:28am | Edited 6:40am
Quoting paul1
Hope you taking profits lol
Probably a good idea, but I have wait it out a bit. That move is not going to collapse without at least a double top forming. The only thing that paused it as far as I can see is pending orders being absorbed.

aha, what stopped it was the upper daily trend line, I would love to see that pop

I know I'm being greedy, but the potential seems there.
  • #17,895
  • Aug 6, 2010 6:30am Aug 6, 2010 6:30am
Could have took some profit at 1.3176
but i was typing here lol.
Have to wait an see now.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,896
  • Aug 6, 2010 6:41am Aug 6, 2010 6:41am
Quoting SerpentDove
Probably a good idea, but I have wait it out a bit. That move is not going to collapse without at least a double top forming. The only thing that paused it as far as I can see is pending orders being absorbed.
This is something i have yet to learn.
How to add to winners and when to take profit.
At the moment am just at the "get into profit" stage. And when i see profit take it before it disappears.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,897
  • Aug 6, 2010 6:50am Aug 6, 2010 6:50am
Quoting paul1
This is something i have yet to learn.
How to add to winners and when to take profit.
At the moment am just at the "get into profit" stage. And when i see profit take it before it disappears.
I was lucky today, the market was loaded in my direction before news I had all entries secured with stops, the news in the span of a minute put a relatively large comfort zone between price and my entries. If they were loaded the other way, I would have no positions to speak of.
  • #17,898
  • Aug 6, 2010 7:07am Aug 6, 2010 7:07am
Hi, guys.

It's been a very nice week for me and I plan stay at the side lines today, just to keep the profits in my pockets

Paul1 and Atomic_Sheep it's nice that you are trying to practice fti's teachings. Be sure that you are playing small while learning and don't think that every posiotion can be rescued. Sometimes you'll need to bite the bullet, so that you have enough capital to fight another day.

Regards, MyTbo
  • #17,899
  • Aug 6, 2010 7:21am Aug 6, 2010 7:21am
exit 1.3186
take profit 11 pips
throw scout in as its coming down
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,900
  • Edited 9:18am Aug 6, 2010 7:42am | Edited 9:18am
just hammering it.

Flat now. I hate fridays, rarely trade them but original buys where secured yesterday, let them play out today, nice take for a day that usually empties my pockets.

Have a good weekend everyone.
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