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A Simple London Breakout V.2

  • #121
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:29pm Aug 4, 2010 10:29pm
Quote
Hi Mer,

thanks for your nice System!
Only for test purposis I changed a little bit the "3 Tier" indicator, and calculate the max limit with ATR.
(ATR period=100, factor=4).
So is easier to see that every pair on every day can have different max box sizes related with the price volatility. Maybe help.
.

A very useful change for those that are familiar with using ATR values, thanks. I won't be replacing the indicator in post #1 though as the indicator is exactly how I would like it to be, but thanks for the contribution. By the way, is the number in parentheses the max box size?

Quote
sqaulo also great work and many thanks from amsterdam to you
i am thinking of maken a programm off highliting you guys so you will be more famous lol because there are a lot of people they don,t no diddley and they don,t no forex so tell me if you guys merlin as well aren in ok

I appreciate the accolades, but I think I am far from deserving to be called famous, lol!!

Quote
I'm rather excited about this strategy, thanks for sharing it!
The only issue I have is the time.
I live in EST time zone (GMT -5) and there's no way I can be up for the london open...

My question is this, is it possible to adjust settings such that I can enter the NY open?

Or even better, I trade between 8:00pm EST to 10:00pm EST, or 1:00am GMT to 3:00am...

That's the nice thing about this is that you can use the basics of the strategy however you desire. Change the inputs, times, box sizes, whatever your little heart desires. The best thing for you is to wait until sqaulou has the bugs out of the EA and you could trade the strategy off a VPS and still get your sleep.

Quote
I just wanted to pop in this thread and say a big thanks to mer071898 for providing this system to us all.

I opened a "Live" real money account with gft $5k on sunday. I'm already up $500 this week alone. Just trading Monday-Tuesday.

First off, congrats! Secondly, what lot sizes are you starting off with because $5K is still a very small account for this strategy and very risky, especially if you hit a sequence like we did on the Gbp/Usd last week.
  • #122
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:19pm Aug 4, 2010 11:19pm
Before we get started with Wednesday's results, I will be using my Go Market's demo for my examples as I am getting too much missing data from FXCBS. For those who want to follow along, you can download the platform here and use 06:00 to 09:00 for your time settings.
Eur/Usd

T1= +19
T2= +1
T3= +1

Running Total= +21 pips

Re-entry

T1= +19
T2= +40
T3= +61

Final Total= +141 pips

Gbp/Usd

T1= +30

T2 & T3 are still active open trades at this time

Final Total= +30 pips
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 81 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.jpg Size: 78 KB
  • #123
  • Edited 11:55pm Aug 4, 2010 11:41pm | Edited 11:55pm
Usd/Cad

Re-entries from Tuesday

T1= -160 (-32 x 5)
T2= -160 (-32 x 5)
T3= -160 (-32 x 5)

Running Total= -480 pips

Re-entry

T1= -351 (-27 x 13)
T2= -351 (-27 x 13)
T3= -351 (-27 x 13)

Running Total= -1533 pips

Re-entry

T1= +578 (+17 x 34)
T2= +1190 (+35 x 34)
T3= +578 (+17 x 34)

Final Total= +813 pips

Eur/Jpy

T3= +135 (from Tuesday- closed at 13:15 GMT)

Running Total= +135 pips

We already recouped our losses yesterday before trading today (even before our open T3 trade had closed), so we will start fresh today with no multiplier.

T1= -39
T2= -39
T3= -39

Running Total= +18 pips

Since we are still positive for the day because of the T3 carryover trade, I will not use the multiplier of 2 on the re-entry. This will help limit the risk in case a reversal and stop occurs later in the day.

Re-entry

T1= +24
T2= +52
T3= +24

Final Total= +118 pips
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.jpg Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.jpg Size: 91 KB
  • #124
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:45pm Aug 4, 2010 11:45pm
Gbp/Jpy (Max Box Size limited to 55 pips)

T1= -55
T2= -55
T3= -55

Running Total= -165 pips

Re-entry

T1= +68 (+34 x 2)
T2= +144 (+72 x 2)
T3= +68 (+34 x 2)

Final Total= +115 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #125
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:51pm Aug 4, 2010 11:51pm
Still a very positive day even when Usd/Cad ran us up to a multiplier of 34.

Eur/Usd- +141 pips
Gbp/Usd- +30 pips
Usd/cad- +813 pips
Eur/Jpy- +118 pips (Includes T3 of +135 from Tuesday)
Gbp/Jpy- +115 pips

Grand total for Wednesday- +1217 pips
  • #126
  • Aug 5, 2010 12:59am Aug 5, 2010 12:59am
The eurusd would have worked out a little differently, but overall still profitable by 151 pips. The first tp would not have been hit because of spread, and the stopout would have been hit due to spread
But in the end, still worked out to a little more pips, with trade 1 being stopout and trade 2 hitting all 3 tp's at multiplier 2
  • #127
  • Aug 5, 2010 1:28am Aug 5, 2010 1:28am
Quote
The eurusd would have worked out a little differently, but overall still profitable by 151 pips. The first tp would not have been hit because of spread, and the stopout would have been hit due to spread http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif
But in the end, still worked out to a little more pips, with trade 1 being stopout and trade 2 hitting all 3 tp's at multiplier 2

Yes, that is possible, but I'm not adding in the spreads right now mainly for demonstration purposes because everyone's spreads will be different depending on which broker you use. This way everyone is on the same page when they look at the examples.
  • #128
  • Aug 5, 2010 2:11am Aug 5, 2010 2:11am
Yeah, makes things a bit easier to not account for spread for demonstrational purposes
  • #129
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:08am Aug 5, 2010 3:08am
Celtic-
Thanks for the heads up. Restarted and the Order script works fine.
  • #130
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:34am Aug 5, 2010 3:34am
Quoting squalou
hi,

Sometimes i get invalid fib lines (but not boxes) when i change time frames on the chart which already has the indicator loaded.
I have to "restart" the indicator to get it right (ctrl-I, "Edit" the indicator, then just confirm with "OK" without changing any settings, then "Close").

Try this to see if it works.

Sq
I reload the template. Now it's works!
Thank you!
  • #131
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:41am Aug 5, 2010 3:41am
Quoting mer071898
...A very useful change for those that are familiar with using ATR values, thanks. I won't be replacing the indicator in post #1 though as the indicator is exactly how I would like it to be, but thanks for the contribution. By the way, is the number in parentheses the max box size?
The indicator is only a tool for test purposes!

- Yes, between the parantheses is the MaxBox size.

- The indicator is programmed to get around the feeling that the box size value can be.


- In the version 2 is programmed also the average calculation of the box sizes.
You can now get the box size value by multiplying the ATR value, or by dividing the box size average.
For me is obvious that every pair needs other settings...
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: london_breakout_boxes.gif Size: 23 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 sm3TierLondonBreakout_v2.mq4   17 KB | 1,190 downloads
  • #132
  • Aug 5, 2010 4:57am Aug 5, 2010 4:57am
Quote
I'm rather excited about this strategy, thanks for sharing it!
The only issue I have is the time.
I live in EST time zone (GMT -5) and there's no way I can be up for the london open...

I did some changes so that this can also be used as new york breakout box. See if this helps. Correct me if I am wrong. May be NY breakout and London break out can be done with same strategy. Please see the attached template. Of course, to use the template you need the original indicator on the first page of the thread. Please adjust the profit levels. I have reduced them a bit in the attached template.

Thanks
Jill
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl nybox.tpl   119 KB | 805 downloads
  • #133
  • Aug 5, 2010 4:58am Aug 5, 2010 4:58am
Quoting SwingMan
The indicator is only a tool for test purposes!

- Yes, between the parantheses is the MaxBox size.

- The indicator is programmed to get around the feeling that the box size value can be.


- In the version 2 is programmed also the average calculation of the box sizes.
You can now get the box size value by multiplying the ATR value, or by dividing the box size average.
For me is obvious that every pair needs other settings...
.
not necessarily .. i use 6:30 - 6:45 GMT box = works great.. however too many pairs too much risk.. hard to follow all
  • #134
  • Aug 5, 2010 5:01am Aug 5, 2010 5:01am
Quoting SwingMan
The indicator is only a tool for test purposes!
- In the version 2.1 is also calculated the daily bar range average (between the ends of the boxes!!)

As info you have also:
- BoxSizeAverage and the percentage of the BoxSizeAverage/DailyRange
- Current BoxSize and the percentage of the CurrentBoxSize/DailyRange
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: london_breakout_boxes2.gif Size: 24 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 sm3TierLondonBreakout_v2.1.mq4   19 KB | 1,324 downloads
  • #135
  • Aug 5, 2010 5:41am Aug 5, 2010 5:41am
hi all,

i have now finalized the EA coding, including the martingale sequence control (optional, default will be disabled).

I am not posting the EA right now because we are still final-testing it to make sure it is stable enough, but this should be ready very soon, possibly released today if Mer won't find last-minute issues today .

Martingale will be like in the first version of the LBO strategy: either use a fixed sequence, the one suggested by Mer as default (which i called "aggressive" earlier), but it will be completely configurable (you will be able to change the sequence to your own).
Or use the "AutoMartingale" option, which will automatically calculate the Mart factor based on the past lost pips to recoup, taking into account all last concecutive lost trades.


Backtesting on EU from 2010.01.01 till today gives around +5000 pips profit, WITHOUT using Martingale.
($10.000 account and 0.01 lots basis for these backtests)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3TierLBO-EU-2010-jan01-aug-05.gif Size: 9 KB


Using Mer's Martingale sequence gives..... +16500 pips!!!!

HOWEVER: note that the Mart factor was pushed to x233 beween june 10 and 14, due to a 6 consecutive lost trades sequence...

martingale IS VERY risky, never forget that...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3TierLBO-EU-with-Mer-Martingale-2010-jan01-aug-05.gif Size: 8 KB



Using AutoMartingale gives +10300 pips, with a max multiplier pushed "only" to x62...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3TierLBO-EU-with-AutoMartingale-2010-jan01-aug-05.gif Size: 8 KB


But your patience will be rewarded...
We all hope so anyway!


Cheers
SQ
  • #136
  • Aug 5, 2010 5:53am Aug 5, 2010 5:53am
Quoting squalou
hi all,

i have now finalized the EA coding, including the martingale sequence control (optional, default will be disabled).

I am not posting the EA right now because we are still final-testing it to make sure it is stable enough, but this should be ready very soon, possibly released today if Mer won't find last-minute issues today .

Martingale will be like in the first version of the LBO strategy: either use a fixed sequence, the one suggested by Mer as default (which i called "aggressive" earlier), but it will be completely configurable...
Looking forward to giving it a run - nice to see SwingMan here also -
  • #137
  • Aug 5, 2010 10:27am Aug 5, 2010 10:27am
It seems to me that I'm getting more fakes on the breakouts when setting the max box size to 55 on GBPJPY, is it really better to have it that low on such a beast cross pair?

Thanks guys

ps. I'm loving this strategy
  • #138
  • Aug 5, 2010 11:21am Aug 5, 2010 11:21am
Quoting authornumber
It seems to me that I'm getting more fakes on the breakouts when setting the max box size to 55 on GBPJPY, is it really better to have it that low on such a beast cross pair?

Thanks guys

ps. I'm loving this strategy
I have not done any back testing with the g/j, but I got good results on the e/j with a max 75 box size. Smaller boxes did not work as well. This was from Jan 2009 to present. Very time-consuming to figure it all out manually, I'm waiting for the ea to try out other settings. I would think the g/j would need a box size of at least 100, but can't say for sure until it's back tested with different size settings. And possibly different box times.
  • #139
  • Aug 5, 2010 1:20pm Aug 5, 2010 1:20pm
Quote
It seems to me that I'm getting more fakes on the breakouts when setting the max box size to 55 on GBPJPY, is it really better to have it that low on such a beast cross pair?

Thanks guys

ps. I'm loving this strategy

Change the settings to whatever you like, I've already mentioned this numerous times that the setting are not written in stone. For testing purposes, I'm using 55.
  • #140
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:20pm Aug 5, 2010 3:20pm
Quoting mer071898
Change the settings to whatever you like, I've already mentioned this numerous times that the setting are not written in stone. For testing purposes, I'm using 55.
I see, sure. Sorry about that, I kinda skipped some lines while reading through. Well, I'm just gonna use whatever you recommend. Mokey see Monkey do haha

Thanks for all the help.

!YOU THE MAN

ps. Love this strategy
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