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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #281
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:59am Aug 2, 2010 5:59am
Hmm, PA hitting the ascending yellow 76.4 fan. Wonder if she will pause for air... she is a little unforgiving today.

Sorry for the messy charts.
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  • #282
  • Edited 9:18am Aug 2, 2010 8:38am | Edited 9:18am
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52348

Well, it looks like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has decided to avert the Greek response of capitulation to the IMF and told them, well, basically, ‘up yours matey, we are doing things our way’.

I have no idea if choosing to be a pariah on the international money stage is a good act or not – currently – but it would appear that in presenting its audience with a show other than that which the ticket payer was expecting, Hungary has courted the wrath of the fiscal conductor. Namely; the global bankers.

In short, Hungary will tax all profits from it banks, cut taxes for it citizens and SMEs, and hope that this will help the country to crawl out of debt. Of course, the IMF doesn’t normally do business this way, and have huffed and puffed, and got the EU involved as it seeks to extend more credit to Hungary – an interlude that would undoubtedly ensure continuing malaise by its population. But those Hungarians have shouldered a lot of weight in the past, have backs built like bricks, and hopefully, will not see their house blown down as they resist the hot air of their critics.

Indeed, Hungary has reduced its deficit from 9.3 % in 2006 to 4.0 % in 2009. Far better figures than Greece, and wider Europe – of course, not being tied to the Euro must help. Perhaps the IMF are worried that Hungary will show other countries on the fringe of established Europe, that one does not have to stage a highfaluting tragedy in an amphitheatre, but a simple play for the proletariat, in order to receive rave reviews.
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  • #283
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:46pm Aug 2, 2010 11:46pm
...that was a nasty little trick that Frankfurt just pulled. Shame on them.
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  • #284
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:55pm Aug 2, 2010 11:55pm
Quoting 45Condor
...that was a nasty little trick that Frankfurt just pulled. Shame on them.
LOL - didnt you just love the little stop sweep in the Euro - and the marubozo buy that followed As for the Higher Low in Cable - that had Buy Me Now all over it, so it was rude not to! I closed the last part at the 5925 level and I'll buy the retrace - hopefully ~the 900 level....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #285
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:59pm Aug 2, 2010 11:59pm
Missed it, and will wait to see if price breaks the 1.5940 level for an entry up to the 1.60 level. She's got to make it there...

Quoting Islander
LOL - didnt you just love the little stop sweep in the Euro - and the marubozo buy that followed As for the Higher Low in Cable - that had Buy Me Now all over it, so it was rude not to! I closed the last part at the 5925 level and I'll buy the retrace - hopefully ~the 900 level....
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #286
  • Aug 3, 2010 12:40am Aug 3, 2010 12:40am
Quoting Islander
LOL - didnt you just love the little stop sweep in the Euro - and the marubozo buy that followed As for the Higher Low in Cable - that had Buy Me Now all over it, so it was rude not to! I closed the last part at the 5925 level and I'll buy the retrace - hopefully ~the 900 level....

Todays MR1 level is at 5895 - also the 50% retrace of the last upswing on the 5 min chart and the rising 30 ema......that's where the retrace held and I went long......

The current 20 day ADR is 165 pips which suggests a potential high ~ 5980, so I'll set my TPs for this morning at 5950 and 5975.

BFN
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #287
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:50am Aug 3, 2010 5:50am
I’m not sure if traders have been watching the Russians, but as of late, the Kremlin has been offloading debt like there is no tomorrow. And this is all short-term debt… not the most reliable of assets to own.

In addition to this, some 70% of bank loans are apparently secured against property. Oh dear, here we go again. For those not aware, it is also reported that 70% of bank loan collateral is owned by the Royal Bank of Scotland. Today we read of failed crops on the Steppes, and also elsewhere, but it begs the question, if the Russians cannot harvest the profits to keep their commercial enterprises solvent, what implication will this have for us? I’m not thinking of how I may have to change from Weetabix to Scott’s porridge oats in order to keep my breakfast bill down, but more my pension funds, and ‘expected’ annual increase in basic bank charges. Ah, bank charges, I can feel my blood pressure rising as I type, and feel that politicians, too, should be inculpated in this raping of the taxpayer.

Back to the RBS: Later this week, their results will be published, and I’ll bet a Rouble they will try to get them to show black, with all that nasty red stuff over the European border hidden from view. Of course, it is easy to have good books when the money that you and me put in and which see a return below inflation, is lent out at above inflation rates. Yes, it really is that easy for them. However, my point of highlighting Russia and the RBS is that Russia is treading the same path as Spain; that is, over-priced property that few dare to touch, a populace that may very well have to stand in the breadline again, and money in Joe public’s pocket becoming harder and harder to keep topped up.

So, what do I think of the coming months? Well, my luxury Cadbury’s cookies are probably going to become more of a luxury for me, my heat during winter will be aided by a thicker woolly jumper as I attempt to stave of the very possible energy bribery that may come from the Russians as they try to plough revenue back into their silos, and my resentment at a falling return rate on my savings will be increased as I see the bankers enjoy returns to disgusting bonuses. If anyone thinks the bonus culture has been precluded by government statement of restraint, look at what happened this week with HSBC.
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  • #288
  • Aug 3, 2010 11:35pm Aug 3, 2010 11:35pm
Interesting comments from Yu Yongding of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...ding-says.html

Is this the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's way of telling Obama to pull his socks up and not to allow for more QE and Dollar depreciation?
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  • #289
  • Aug 3, 2010 11:38pm Aug 3, 2010 11:38pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ials-warn.html

...would be nice to see mark down on Cable today, followed by blast off tomorrow to the 1.65s - previous postulation:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=277
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  • #290
  • Aug 4, 2010 1:21am Aug 4, 2010 1:21am
Stocky Monk has an obligation here and I miss his posts. Thanks for stepping in here, Condor, even if your outlook sometimes seems a bit Eeyoreish. Those Cadbury's cookies, I'm sure you know, are no longer made in the UK but in new factories where the workforce will be "duly grateful for a job".

But the pound continues to forge a steep (getting steeper) upward channel so someone must think we're doing allright.

Looking on the bright side - it's a bit easier to trade this kind of movement than the current Swissie shenanigans, for example.

I might post an analysis soon, if I have the confidence, in this hallowed company. At least Stocky is on holiday.
Gone to a better place
  • #291
  • Aug 4, 2010 1:33am Aug 4, 2010 1:33am
Eyoreish...yeah, I guess I can come across as such sometimes. Don't mean to. Just like to take pops at the world, and lower my level of expectation, in order for any surprise to be more pleasant.

And my cookies are no longer made in the UK - bloody hell.
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  • #292
  • Aug 4, 2010 1:48am Aug 4, 2010 1:48am
Quoting 45Condor
And my cookies are no longer made in the UK - bloody hell.
Sorry to encourage off-topicness, but this reminds me of the current trend with bottled pickles in North America and Europe: it appears that Indian pickle farmers have coordinated and cornered 'traditional' producers. 'Western' producers usually charge $950 dollars/tonne, and Indian farmers sell at $85/tonne. So, the oil companies and container ships do well, conniving middlemen increase profits, local farmers are left to scramble, and the consumer gets duped. Check your pickles next time - chances are they're "Product of India." And I though driving strawberries from California to Florida was crazy!
  • #293
  • Aug 4, 2010 2:17am Aug 4, 2010 2:17am
Quoting smikester
Stocky Monk has an obligation here and I miss his posts. Thanks for stepping in here, Condor, even if your outlook sometimes seems a bit Eeyoreish. Those Cadbury's cookies, I'm sure you know, are no longer made in the UK but in new factories where the workforce will be "duly grateful for a job".

But the pound continues to forge a steep (getting steeper) upward channel so someone must think we're doing allright.

Looking on the bright side - it's a bit easier to trade this kind of movement than the current Swissie shenanigans, for example....
Morning Smikester,

Haha Holiday?? I wish mate.....Just been very busy trading GU and a few Future contracts....Reason I havent posted much analysis is my post from the 28th July still stands.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=247

Monthly close above 5314 and medium term targets are 5830 and 1.60/6050.....We have had the close above 5314 confirming monthly inside bar break....Target 1 5830 hit and Target 2 almost hit.

Im still scalping GU intraday with a Long bias given the inside bar break and PA now trading above the daily 200MA....Im expecting GU to pull back to 5471, maybe even 5314 area to test the high of Mays monthly bar. At very least back to the daily 200MA which currently sits at 5536. It is around here I will be setting up medium term longs with target around the monthly 200MA zone 6605.

Intraday not much to say....I would favour longs until the daily and 4 hour give reversal signals at which point would expect a 50% to 61.8% retrace of the last rise since 22nd July....50% retrace would take us down to the daily 200MA and a 61.8 would get us down to 5471 which is where im favouring setting up longs.

Keep the posts coming...nice to see analysis being exchanged even in my absence.

Stocky
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  • #294
  • Aug 4, 2010 2:52am Aug 4, 2010 2:52am
i still expect price to spike the figure 1.6000 before tanking to the 53/5400 level, i have a fat sell order there
  • #295
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:04am Aug 4, 2010 4:04am
Dollar Index showing more downside potential before any clear support to bounce of. Price is now trading below both daily and weekly 200ma making the dollar outlook very bearish.

Weekly chart shows a tripple top formation around 88/89.

I think we could see the dollar index trade down to support around 80/ 79.90 rgion before we see a retrace on GU developing.

Stocky
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  • #296
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:28am Aug 4, 2010 8:28am
stocky, there is the possibility that the high in cable has been reached at 5967, do you still think the dollar index can fall to 80? cable has reached the 62% retrace to the pip of the run down starting august 2009, and so a retrace from here is almost mandatory

i see 5300 as the eventual target before any continuation, its the 38% retrace of the big run up from 4240
  • #297
  • Aug 5, 2010 2:51am Aug 5, 2010 2:51am
Hmm, seems to have used that aqua horizontal line _ http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=281 - as support, now, and just kissed that ascending red MA on the 4hr Guppy.

One hour Guppy showing a small retrace through MAs, but well within keeping for another push north.

Any retrace is all dependent upon the BOE now, I'm suspect the NFP to be a non-event this time - of course, now it will be huge - as big money is chasing interest rates; and the comments in editorial today would suggest a surprise may be on the way... of course, the surprise may be no surprise. Oh, I don't know, it's all muddled.

Good news from the US yesterday, and subsequent rise in the Dollar. Piffle, more like FED manipulation to appease the comments recently made by Beijing - all conducted on low volume during a lunch break.

Anyway, it's the wife's birthday, and so off to the UK for a long weekend tomorrow morning. Hope all hit the weekend in the green.
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  • #298
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:30am Aug 5, 2010 3:30am
Quoting tomaz55
stocky, there is the possibility that the high in cable has been reached at 5967, do you still think the dollar index can fall to 80? cable has reached the 62% retrace to the pip of the run down starting august 2009, and so a retrace from here is almost mandatory

i see 5300 as the eventual target before any continuation, its the 38% retrace of the big run up from 4240
Hi Tomaz,

Apologies for the late reply.

The dollar dx has nothing much its way between where it is currently trading and support at 80.0/ 79.80 area. Given it is also trading under the daily 200ma with a 80% sell ratio I think it will be about now the institution start reversing there positions after spiking us down to the support area whilst the market is all short.

The GU 4hr chart shows we broke out of a 4hr channel on the 02/08 and we are now retesting old channel resistance as support. Last 4hr candle was a low volume test of support (5850 also strong daily horizontal support) which is a indication we may reverse around here. I personally think the market is waiting for the the MPC data at Midday before continuing a upmove to 1.60/6050 area. No change to the rate or asset purchase facility will still be considered as good news I think which may give us a spike up on the 4hr generating a climax up bar???? anyway we will see. I bought 5850 S1 level this morning and have now exited at 1.59 prior to data....will re-enter this afternoon if I see another setup otherwise will wait for NFP's to be out the way tomorrow.

Stocky
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  • #299
  • Aug 5, 2010 4:53am Aug 5, 2010 4:53am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi Tomaz,

Apologies for the late reply.

The dollar dx has nothing much its way between where it is currently trading and support at 80.0/ 79.80 area. Given it is also trading under the daily 200ma with a 80% sell ratio I think it will be about now the institution start reversing there positions after spiking us down to the support area whilst the market is all short.

The GU 4hr chart shows we broke out of a 4hr channel on the 02/08 and we are now retesting old channel resistance as support. Last 4hr candle was a low volume test of support...
stocky, if the dollar hits spikes the 80 level, which will take gu to 6000, where do you think it will retrace?

i see cable retracing to 5300, the 38% fib of the run up, and then reaching 6430.. of course its a rocky road, with a 1st bounce expected at 5640
  • #300
  • Aug 5, 2010 5:46am Aug 5, 2010 5:46am
Quoting tomaz55
stocky, if the dollar hits spikes the 80 level, which will take gu to 6000, where do you think it will retrace?

i see cable retracing to 5300, the 38% fib of the run up, and then reaching 6430.. of course its a rocky road, with a 1st bounce expected at 5640
5471 or 5315 zone as per analysis. Will be interesting to see is we can pass resistance at 5960.
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