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A simple strategy with no indicators

  • #201
  • Aug 4, 2010 6:16am Aug 4, 2010 6:16am
Quoting adeforex
SIGNAL SELL ON USDJPY. WEEKLY.TREND= SELL ARROW ON DAILY=SELL. I DEMO IT FOR 70 PIPS SELL COS IT IS VERY CLOSE TO FIBO 0.00 ON WEEKLY. I WILL SEE HOW IT GOES BEFORE NEXT CANDLE
adeforex,

Thanks for your contribution.

Regarding the 4 August 00:00 USDJPY sell signal, and using only ashraf's psych levels, the trade hit TP three hours into the today's candle as shown on the one minute chart below. These SL/TP psyches seem very tight, but it is a winning trade.

It will be interesting to see where price moves during the remainder of this daily candle.

Attached Image

Daily chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyM1.gif Size: 16 KB

M1 price action
  • #202
  • Edited 11:05am Aug 4, 2010 10:48am | Edited 11:05am
  •  adeforex
  • Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trading Live as a Professional Do | 363 Posts | Online Now
Quoting devogel
adeforex,

Thanks for your contribution.

Regarding the 4 August 00:00 USDJPY sell signal, and using only ashraf's psych levels, the trade hit TP three hours into the today's candle as shown on the one minute chart below. These SL/TP psyches seem very tight, but it is a winning trade.

It will be interesting to see where price moves during the remainder of this daily candle.

Attachment
Daily chart

Attachment
M1 price action
i closed my trades after i found out with 23 pips profit. many pairs are also retracing. am happy i did that cos many pairs will change direction. i can see a lot of hammer forming. devogel, please how does only ashraf's psych levels work,he said 0.00,0.50 .please can you explain in just a simple way. i didnt use before but found it very useful as you explained. thanks
We Win Some, We Loose Some, But Let your Win Rates be More to be Successful
  • #203
  • Edited 1:30pm Aug 4, 2010 1:03pm | Edited 1:30pm
This is an interesting system. It reminds me of something so simple that I still shiver when I think on it.

One summer my 13 year old niece wanted to trade so I put up a demo account on a different computer of a daily 10 year bond chart. I showed her the ladder which she had no interest in.
In the end she said buy red bars and sell green bars. I said you do it. So if the day before bond bar was red she would place a buy order above it's wick, if the next day was bullish she was filled and made demo dollars with a trailing stop. Her hard stop was below yesterdays low.

If it was green she would put a sell order in below its wick and sold it with trailing stop. Granted not every buy red went up every day some days it went red for a few days and not get filled,but she did make money with a positive RR. It opened my eyes to how powerful price action can be. After a few months she got bored but I'll never for get it. Maybe we make it to complicated or maybe we like it that way so we can call ourselves sophisticated.

Opps sorry i forgot to add the most important part:she was buying red bar if price was over 10ma and selling green bar if price was below 10ma. It was still so simple a monkey could do it and it still followed a trend. Which 10yr bond does well.
  • #204
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:04pm Aug 4, 2010 8:04pm
"Body of the latest Daily candle is greater than body of the previous 2 daily candles" I've seen you give examples where this does not hold true, where the latest daily is only grater than the previous daily, or not even that. We are talking about body here right? Not wicks.
  • #205
  • Aug 5, 2010 11:27am Aug 5, 2010 11:27am
Quoting Maverick731
"Body of the latest Daily candle is greater than body of the previous 2 daily candles" I've seen you give examples where this does not hold true, where the latest daily is only grater than the previous daily, or not even that. We are talking about body here right? Not wicks.
Maverick731,

Thanks for your post. You pose good questions.

Yes, we are talking about body. Not wicks.

You have stated that part of the Ashraf candle pattern correctly, but I would add one word to make it clearer:

"Body of the latest COMPLETED daily candle is greater than body of the previous 2 daily candles"

Also, as stated earlier, if a broker time is different than Ashraf's GMT+3, the daily candle patterns will be different. So, some of the participants' charts here will disagree. Same is true with brokers who finish the trading week early or start late.

Please tell me a post # where you see an example that disagrees.

Kind regards
  • #206
  • Aug 5, 2010 11:50am Aug 5, 2010 11:50am
well the body part is what was confusing me, you mean just the range of open/close I am guessing. Before I thought the body of the latest candle had to be greater (engluf) both previous candles
  • #207
  • Aug 5, 2010 12:04pm Aug 5, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting Maverick731
well the body part is what was confusing me, you mean just the range of open/close I am guessing. Before I thought the body of the latest candle had to be greater (engluf) both previous candles
Yes, that's exactly right: just the range of open/close. As far as the signal candle engulfing the previous one or two bars, that isn't a rule but it sometimes does occur.
  • #208
  • Aug 5, 2010 12:34pm Aug 5, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting adeforex
devogel, please how does only ashraf's psych levels work,he said 0.00,0.50 .please can you explain in just a simple way. i didnt use before but found it very useful as you explained. thanks
Good move taking your profit when you did.

To quote Ashraf from post #10, "you place the stop loss at the psychological levels 00 & 50. So for example if you entered a long trade @ 1.2734, you could place the stop loss @ 1.2700 and place the target @ 1.2800. This is all subjective"

My interpretation of that is, we place SL and TP by rounding our entry price by 0.50 for yen pairs or 0.xx50 for other pairs. In other words, round by 50 pips.

If your trade platform uses fractional pip pricing, I suggest you ignore the fractional pip unless you are a math whizz and can deal with the complication.

Sometimes this rounding results in a psych that is too close to entry, so we must then move away from entry by another 50 pips.
  • #209
  • Aug 5, 2010 12:38pm Aug 5, 2010 12:38pm
  •  adeforex
  • Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trading Live as a Professional Do | 363 Posts | Online Now
Quoting devogel
Good move taking your profit when you did.

To quote Ashraf from post #10, "you place the stop loss at the psychological levels 00 & 50. So for example if you entered a long trade @ 1.2734, you could place the stop loss @ 1.2700 and place the target @ 1.2800. This is all subjective"

My interpretation of that is, we place SL and TP by rounding our entry price by 0.50 for yen pairs or 0.xx50 for other pairs. In other words, round by 50 pips.

If your trade platform uses fractional pip pricing, I suggest you ignore...
thanks. got it now
We Win Some, We Loose Some, But Let your Win Rates be More to be Successful
  • #210
  • Aug 5, 2010 1:06pm Aug 5, 2010 1:06pm
Quoting ashraf999
no wicks...just the body which is the distance between open and close. If it is a doji then there is no body because the open would be the close itself. As long as there is a "difference" between open and close, then there is a body...
Ashraf,

Please, a clarification. If all signal rules are satisfied, but previous candle 1 and/or previous candle 2 is a perfect doji, do we still have a valid signal?

Thank you
  • #211
  • Aug 5, 2010 4:29pm Aug 5, 2010 4:29pm
Two signals to trade the new candle: GBPJPY short and NZDUSD short. The GJ just barely squeaked in on my feed due to body size of previous candle #2.

Both are showing an inital move into profit.
  • #212
  • Aug 6, 2010 12:10pm Aug 6, 2010 12:10pm
For those of you following the 6 August GBPJPY signal mentioned earlier, I find the following chart a compelling example of a core philosophy in this thread: the value of considering phychological levels when setting TP and SL.

Attached Image

  • #213
  • Aug 6, 2010 12:58pm Aug 6, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting ashraf999
Here is an example where it is possible to get whipsawed if you were not careful
Hi
thank you for your great system.in this example you said we have to be careful to not be whipsawed.
how we have to be careful?
because it is exactly as you guided us in your first post.
regards
Fred
  • #214
  • Aug 7, 2010 3:37am Aug 7, 2010 3:37am
Quoting whatfx
hi ashraf

which one is your favourite system ? also, what are pinbars and hammers ?

so far, what has been the success ratio using this system ?

yesterday i had two signals from the majors: GBP/EUR - long, and EUR/USD - long. do you agree ?


regards
This is the strategy I use the most. Pinbars are candles that have bodies near to top or bottom of the candle where the length of the body is about 1/3 of the total length of the candle. The rate is about 70%. Again, your broker is different from mine. So in order to know whether your pick follows this strategy or not, it is important to post the charts
Make It Simple !
  • #215
  • Aug 7, 2010 3:45am Aug 7, 2010 3:45am
Quoting Maverick731
well the body part is what was confusing me, you mean just the range of open/close I am guessing. Before I thought the body of the latest candle had to be greater (engluf) both previous candles
The engulfing pattern is not a requirement. Body is simply difference between open and close. So the body length of the signal (the 3rd candle) must be greater than the length of each of the previous 2 candle bodies. And for going long, the signal must close higher than the previous candle. And for going short, the signal must close lower than the previous candle
Make It Simple !
  • #216
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:09am Aug 8, 2010 5:09am
Quoting fredgold3434
Hi
thank you for your great system.in this example you said we have to be careful to not be whipsawed.
how we have to be careful?
because it is exactly as you guided us in your first post.
regards
Fred
Sometimes you get a candle's body that is 10 times larger (or even more) than the previous candle's body (like MARUBOZU candles). There is always possibility of going against that signal candle the next day if traders did not maintain the momentum. There is no rule for this case. So your next action here depends on your personal judgment
Make It Simple !
  • #217
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:47am Aug 8, 2010 5:47am
Hi, This is an interesting post, have you ever read the Quarters Theory book by Ilian Yotov, he goes over the minor quarter points which are 00's and then breaks it down to 250 pip levels. So you have to be careful if going past a 250 or 750 level with target as a 00.

Fred
  • #218
  • Aug 8, 2010 10:49pm Aug 8, 2010 10:49pm
Ashraf,
your strategy is smart.
What HAPPENS if everybody will follow your strategy?
The more experience the closer to the reality
  • #219
  • Aug 8, 2010 11:35pm Aug 8, 2010 11:35pm
Quoting ashraf999
Sometimes you get a candle's body that is 10 times larger (or even more) than the previous candle's body (like MARUBOZU candles). There is always possibility of going against that signal candle the next day if traders did not maintain the momentum. There is no rule for this case. So your next action here depends on your personal judgment
oh ok i got it,plus before you have mentioned that this is not 100% system.its about 70% which is great.
thank you
Fred
  • #220
  • Aug 9, 2010 5:29am Aug 9, 2010 5:29am
Quoting ashraf999
This is the strategy I use the most. Pinbars are candles that have bodies near to top or bottom of the candle where the length of the body is about 1/3 of the total length of the candle. The rate is about 70%. Again, your broker is different from mine. So in order to know whether your pick follows this strategy or not, it is important to post the charts
hi

70% on what tp/sl combination ? if it is 70% then will it make profit on the long run, as a couple of stops hit will wipe out any previous profits ?

the broker i use , their daily candles close at midnight british standard time. so i would enter on the next candle at one minute past midnight. so iam not sure if these candles will give correct signals ? when you enter on your next daily candle what is the time according to british standard time ?

regasrds
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