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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #230,181
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:43am Aug 3, 2010 9:43am
Trading outside the chanel
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  • #230,182
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:35am Aug 3, 2010 10:35am
Quoting uksnowman
Nice! I'm in too from 137.18 (only a small position though). IMO 136.3 needs to be tested since price rose from there very quickly without any form of test. I am hoping to hold until at least then and then see if there is a small bounce before continuing down to 135.5 area.
Well I got my test but numb nuts here got out too soon after two hourly pins which I thought was a sign we were heading back up to test the highs. Need more karmo patience pills when dealing with the dragon...
  • #230,183
  • Edited 11:23am Aug 3, 2010 11:03am | Edited 11:23am
Tough pre and post NY open trading on most of the majors this morning. The DOW took a dive before and at the 10am news, but then to the surprise of many (OK, me!) got bigtime VSA bought - bouncing up 70 pips on most pairs, returning to where we were for London trading. Guess that's the bots buying, and messing up human intuition and expectations.

GY still looking slightly more bearish based on new London PA, but buying around 137 levels isn't wise for a variety of factors. GU back up close to 1.596 highs. Am in no trades, and am either expecting further changes after 2pm EST, or, we may just drift around here as volume falls off. My current bias leans more to further declines in most majors, but it's the M30 looking and acting like a M5 chart that demands tons of patience.

EDIT: Looks like we're perhaps starting to see some sterling weakness: UJ is holding steady albeit at it's lowest levels, yet GJ is declining and GU following suit; is seeing sellers at least - question is will buyers surface to absorb them. Might be too early to tell, but with the FTSE closing flat, we might need to wait until Asia, London for further GY, GU declines.
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  • #230,184
  • Aug 3, 2010 4:07pm Aug 3, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting fxghost
123 formed and I entered long at 137.20, stop loss at 136.95. Let's see what happens.
Exited at yesterday's high 137.65. A small day trade. Direction is still up, as support holds. It is at 136.30 now. I will be looking at that level. It could be visited during asian sesion. 123 and buy on dips. That's it. Simple strategy.
  • #230,185
  • Aug 3, 2010 7:43pm Aug 3, 2010 7:43pm
Quoting fxghost
Exited at yesterday's high 137.65. A small day trade. Direction is still up, as support holds. It is at 136.30 now. I will be looking at that level. It could be visited during asian sesion. 123 and buy on dips. That's it. Simple strategy.
Direction is down in my opinion. GANN 4 hour is flipping. All indicators pointing down.
Let's see how far down we can get.
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  • #230,186
  • Aug 3, 2010 8:42pm Aug 3, 2010 8:42pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Let's see how far down we can get.
If you are starting a pool, my bet is 134.17
  • #230,187
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:26pm Aug 3, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting plucker01
If you are starting a pool, my bet is 134.17
Maybe not that far, let's first go to 50% fib, @ around 136, then next fib 61.8% around 135.55.
That could be as far as it goes.

I'm talking about the blue fibs, not the yellow one.
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  • #230,188
  • Edited Aug 4, 2010 5:36am Aug 3, 2010 9:46pm | Edited Aug 4, 2010 5:36am
With recent homes sales report i am doubt about the economic recovery plan. Even the number is slighly poor where recession will repeat?

Technically it should go to 138.2-139.7/8-140.2 before slamp where we may seen monthly may occur invalid bull if not next month possible mid/end of this month. Otherwise ranging month between 200-300pips between 137-134 area while waiting the cooking is finish.

Look at the ADP tonight as well as un employment tomorrow, perhaps may give a very clear direction to all cross pair especially GY n EY where am not suprice UJ will make another new low and break 84.80 area where welcome to 79.XX also could possible. I will be in the market tonight or tomorrow (if possible 1 hrs before MPC meeting) and see what happen.

When i take a look at daily n weekly atm vs current movement on GY, i am not suprice it will have another big drop sooner rather later. Another market crash or collapse also i will not suprice with current situition but......anythings possible

But this is all base on my gud feeling ..as i could be wrong as usual...

see u guys tomorrow....chow

g
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  • #230,189
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:49pm Aug 3, 2010 9:49pm
Yes. It will not drop like a stone, but I am thinking this will be the target before a retrace. Usually a 5sma/10sma 4H cross is good for 200+ pips.
  • #230,190
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:10pm Aug 3, 2010 10:10pm
I think Ill go down to 136.25 and then go up to 136.31 in the next minute
  • #230,191
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:17pm Aug 3, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting plucker01
Yes. It will not drop like a stone, but I am thinking this will be the target before a retrace. Usually a 5sma/10sma 4H cross is good for 200+ pips.
We'll have to see, ADP employment numbers will be important. Since they have the real numbers while the Labor Department will still be influenced by Census lay-offs.
But yes you are right, usually a GANN flip gives more downside.

So I'm bearish for now, we'll know more by tomorrow.

Shamu,

and for London session, I can only say happy trading to all, coz I will be sleeping.

Shamu.
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  • #230,192
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:57pm Aug 3, 2010 10:57pm
Just opened a small long because the new 4 hour bar that starts in 5 minutes will need a little top shadow. Just for 20 pips or so. (Or maybe more)
Still bear overall.
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  • #230,193
  • Aug 3, 2010 11:25pm Aug 3, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Just opened a small long because the new 4 hour bar that starts in 5 minutes will need a little top shadow. Just for 20 pips or so. (Or maybe more)
Still bear overall.
LOLz, I could grab 8 pips with that long, and back to bear.
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  • #230,194
  • Aug 4, 2010 12:07am Aug 4, 2010 12:07am
Quoting wormboy
okay so far so good. first support seen should be ard the W1 pvp @135.9
If we get to test the level before the end of london session, it'll be good to book some profit.
Here's to hoping (glass raised). yam seng!

Good luck everyone!
hi guys

okay as anticipated we got to test the W1 pvp @135.9 (tho not at london close yesterday ). I've booked partial profit while the remaining position had been moved to bep.
Free trade from here on.

Have a great day everyone!
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  • #230,195
  • Aug 4, 2010 1:38am Aug 4, 2010 1:38am
Bought on dip after 123 pattern was formed. Went long after break of 123 high (136.20) stop loss is at 135.85. t.p is at 136.90 - close to even number.
  • #230,196
  • Aug 4, 2010 2:17am Aug 4, 2010 2:17am
Quoting fxghost
Bought on dip after 123 pattern was formed. Went long after break of 123 high (136.20) stop loss is at 135.85. t.p is at 136.90 - close to even number.
Careful with this continual permabullish stance. Asian session was very weak today and this month's ADP/NFP is not gonna be a nice as the bulk of those census fake jobs get reversed.
  • #230,197
  • Aug 4, 2010 2:42am Aug 4, 2010 2:42am
Heard on Bloomberg's from a pit trader and read elsewhere today that their expectation is not for NFP to be completely awful. Yes, it won't be stellar and the census takers are gone, but his strategy was that unless it's completely abysmal, that the markets will eventually rally.

Taken in the context of all this low volume equity bot trading we know we're getting, the significant buying and support that GU, GY and other pairs are seeing, you know that the big boys will not allow it to drop in a major way - that would blow their investment. He acknowledged many falling off the reports due to despair, other gov't manipulation, but set the tone as (continue the) rally now, worry later.

Tough to play out as usual, but I'd not be surprised to see an initial dip and negativity, and then buying to ensue. That may be combined with at least a daily bottoming of UJ, and then up from there.

And just a reminder, today's London and US session is likely to be the last one prior to NFP, so where we land, we'll pretty much stay; the sessions before NFP are usually just quiet & tight rangebound and listless sessions until the Friday morning US announcement.
  • #230,198
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:08am Aug 4, 2010 3:08am
Quoting Beljevina
Heard on Bloomberg's from a pit trader and read elsewhere today that their expectation is not for NFP to be completely awful...
Would support my speculations. In terms of rally continuation, and it may all be hot air and editorial fillers, but I am cautious of any surprise come Thursday from the BOE.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #230,199
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:53am Aug 4, 2010 3:53am
Quoting sailor68
Hi Fudomyo,

Good idea about myfxbook, i have 2 account on it, but one of my account can not update (if you have a lot of trade with oanda, the server fail to update it, now i try to trade on my second account (public and small account) .
My advive if you have an account with oanda you have to update the history everyday if not it will fail to update your trade on the server.

Now my position short GU (fibo 61,8%) GY (fail to break the yesterday High and Wr1 )
Short EU top of the ATL...
Right all my trades in green, i just closed my short on eu, keep shorting GU and dragon, stop at be.
Trade with the momentum
  • #230,200
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:57am Aug 4, 2010 3:57am
Quoting wormboy
hi guys

okay as anticipated we got to test the W1 pvp @135.9 (tho not at london close yesterday ). I've booked partial profit while the remaining position had been moved to bep.
Free trade from here on.

Have a great day everyone!
okay, right on the money where partial profit was booked earlier as the bounce came almost immediately. However the W1 pvp is being challenged again atm.
Selling is still in.

Good luck everyone!
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