Semi Martingale discussion

Basic idea is borrowed from FxTradePro's thread on the subject. The foll formula may seem useful to some as it does to me.
TP= 200
SL= 100
Starting with 10000 USD equity, enter a trade in the direction of the daily trend. If TP is hit. Start the process all over again.. If SL is hit, enter in opposite direction with the foll Sequence of Mini Lots:
1 1 1 2 3 5 7 11 16 23 36
Any time TP is hit during the sequence, a minimum 100 pip is banked. It would be very rare that TP is not hit even after 11 SLs. Back test shows it never happened in the past several years. Tested on EUR/USD.

Sorry, but this idea has no sens!
It's very risk and has no potencial... Ofc there are few ways which can do stronger this "strategy" but its not so easy and need from u a little knowlage about market.
U said that "It would be very rare that TP is not hit even after 11 SLs. Back test shows it never happened in the past several years". It's funny because i did similar tests and i got a lot of series with over 20 loses in a row... Ofc it only depend on random variable. Check in Excel how random variables are create - if u have lucky mb u survive one year with this "strategy".
By the way - i should have one of my EA based on similar conceptions... If somebody is interested in i can try find it tomorrow and share.

U can expand this ea to increase TP too (not only Lots) - for example ur TP is 100 and Lot = 0,2 and if u get SL do changes like this:
Lot = Lot*1.5 => Lot = 0,2*1.5 = 0,3 and TP = TP + 10 = 110<- but it doesn't help so much...
Of course there are meny other ways...

A staking strategy based on the result of the previous wager is a poor strategy. You're thinking about "winning", and disregarding risk.

"Wow, red has come up for roulette 10 times. It's obviously rigged, so I'll keep betting red and double up on any loss." Same logic as you are using.

Please don't rubbish it off because the word Martingale is in it. There is definitely some sense in this 'madness', if you consider it so. The price movement does not forever remain in the 100 pip band, it breaks out eventually and for that eventuality we continue trading in the direction of the graph with gradual increments till it gets outside the 100 pip range and you make your TP. It is not so much gambling as is following price action and trend which we all profess all the time. Do reconsider it again coolly . Backtest it again. I'm doing this method past two years and find it easiest and most logical. With sufficient equity as I've initially mentioned, it is a viable method to always stay in the market without going after analyses which I've largely found crap.

I believe there are alot of these threads...but
I'll throw some numbers out anyway.
(I am clearly not the best mathematician on FF, there are some brilliant, first rate minds here.)

1. With a TP 2 times your SL, you chances of winning any trade is 1 in 3.
This is with a random entry and no edge. (We won't even consider spread at this point, to keep it simple.)

So your chance of losing any trade is 66.666%...
The chances of losing 10 trades in a row is .0156, so there is a 1.5% percent chance in any string of 100 trades that you will lose 10 trades.

The chances of losing 11 trades (busting your system), is about 1% in any 100 trades.

It can happen anytime, it WILL happen eventually.

With 200 pip TP and 100 pip SL how many trades are you going to make in a year? couple a day maybe? let's say 2 per day (estimation).
About 200 trading days in a year, so 400 trades per year.

With my percentages above you have about 6%-9% of losing everything in any year.

What will you make on a series of 400 trades? Once you get the winning trades, you are in profit for the SERIES of trades (except for the first 3 1s, those are breakeven). Those breakeven series are going to happen too. A couple of your wagers makes 200 pips when the winning trade happens, most make you 100 pips because of your progression. Like I said at 3 "deep" wagers = breakeven. (bet 1, bet 1, then bet 1 and win).

My stats and probability skills are not that great, but lets say you get 80 completed series in a year, with 100 pips at 1 mini,
and not "blowing up"
you might make $8000?
I think my estimates are probably high.

I can tell you from personal experience within the past year, I have had at least 2 series of 10 losing trades in a row and that is with a R:R of 1:1 or better.
That was in about 750 trades, not random entries.

It happens more often than you want to believe.

Has it been raining Martingale seeds recently, because I sure feel like it.

Seriously, though, why do you think it is that each time a martingale system is proposed on one of the threads at FF, a whole list of who's who of FF shows up to tell you that it doesn't work? Do you think it's because those FF members are secretly trading a martingale system and don't want you to succeed? This would make them dishonest and I for one, don't believe that's the case. Furthermore, the math behind a martingale system will virtually guarantee that you will end up broke sooner or later. The other possibility is that they are truly here to help you and are offering their kind advice to new people who are maybe somewhat a reminder of what they were like when they first started.

--
I suggest you take a small part of that 10k and take a course in statistics at a local university. Alternatively, you could hire a private tutor (I'm sure there are a lot of unemployed PhD.s looking for a few extra bucks). I was lucky enough to have an introductory course in statistics last year and I can tell you that it was worth every minute of it. I don't remember everything I was taught, but the concepts have stayed with me. Seriously, I'm not kidding you - get a basic understanding in statistics + the skills needed to do basic data analysis in Excel. Even if you don't have that 10k you were talking about, you can borrow the books from a library and download audio courses free online (many universities have lecture audios online these days, free to all).

Show me a system that doesn't have draw down or losses, and I'll show you the world's richest man. I again stress that the system is not a typical martingale; it is infact a martingale killer system where price action is the dominant force and not stubborn doubling in the same direction as a conventional martingale envisages. As far as statistics is concerned, I think there is a science that is a tad stronger than it and that science is called 'common sense'.

Whaaat? Are you serious?

If indeed you are not joking, a statement as strong as that definitely needs proof.

bug,
When I said that common sense prevails over statistics, I meant in reference to the context. eg if you look at statistics, any trade you enter you start with a disadvantage (spread).Does that men you never undertake a trade?. Everything is not 123. There are ground realities and play conditions that may defy crude statistics and yet bear positive results.

Could u show us the results? any chart?
Did u create an EA? -> could u share with Statements?
Any other proofs?

You said about statstics but in any probability u have chance win a car or 1 milion $ in any TV or Radio quiz... - just send sms!

Anyway mb u should to develop condisions of ur concept? Is it really end?
Good Luck

I have to congratulate all the Martingale proposers if only for their ability to provoke some of the most heated and intellectually inspiring debates on the net in trading.

Just the fact that the majority of people involved in trading do not like gambling driven approaches is testament enough that there is a huge edge to be derived from martingale style trading. I myself have been looking for a while to pinpoint a strategy that would work specifically with futures, including leveraged fx pairs. The very reason 0 and 00 were invented and a max cap on betting was set into casinos were because of martingale, so there is some promise with the martingale even if you are trading with zero edge and just based on blind probability.

Now in this grid style progression semi martingale, that looks to double up for the breakout instead of the traditional method, one fundamental overlook is that the proposers seem to think if the SL is X, then the price is only remaining within a range of x for so long, and it should eventually breakout, while this is not exactly true. When you say 200 TP and 100 SL, the range is actually 300 ticks, the price can go 150 or so ticks in your direction, before coming back to hit your stop loss on the other hand with a 250 tick move. So beyond the probability of 1.5 percent in 10 trades, it is also very viable in real life trading for 10 bounces to occur within a range of 250-300 ticks.

Therefore my most favored approach, and I'm very open to suggestions that would develop it in this direction, is to spot potential reversal spots, around historical lows highs or extreme volatility levels or emotional numbers, and then start building the original martingale around these levels.

If it was this easy then everyone in the world would be trading successfully.

Not saying this in a bad way, but I don't think you understand how much risk you are taking.