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Why are most retail traders usually on the wrong side of the market?

  • #181
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:41pm Aug 1, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting pipmutt
Correct, they're an FX market Analyst.



Incorrect, all FX analysts analyse FX, not necessarily the FX market.


Seriously, are you really this bored? Well I'm not so I'll bid you g'day!

And 'anal', it's not an insult it's an observation, I really can't think of any other word to describe what you're being!

Sheeesh......lemme outta here!
Have a good day Pipmutt and yes I do value you and your opinion as a forum member here!
  • #182
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:43pm Aug 1, 2010 3:43pm
- they don't know how to trade
- they don't know the market
- they distract themselves or get distracted
- they don't follow their plan
- they don't have a plan & strategy
- they don't understand that there is no wrong or right side to be on
- they don't grow from their failures
- they don't allow themselves to fail or admit failure
- they follow illusion not reality
- they give up
- they don't believe they can make it
- they don't want to put in the effort
- they don't try
- they look in the wrong places & won't ask for help
- they don't keep track
- they don't prepare themselves good enough
- they don't set goals
- they don't have routines, rhythm & diversification
- maybe they don't want to be on the right side, i don't know, maybe they like it where they are because it's comfortable
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #183
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:46pm Aug 1, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting Troikaone1
Have a good day Pipmutt and yes I do value you and your opinion as a forum member here!
You too, it's all good clean fun, thought-provoking even!
  • #184
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:52pm Aug 1, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting pipmutt
You too, it's all good clean fun, thought-provoking even!
I respect NE1 who has issued over 1800 posts like you have. I apologize if you misinterpreted my posts. I am an Engineer by profession and I tend to be over analytical to be honest!!!! It's in my DNA. If my engineering calculations are off just a bit....something might blow up, so I have to be a bit over critical. Anyway, it's all good.
  • #185
  • Aug 1, 2010 4:26pm Aug 1, 2010 4:26pm
With all due respect and humility, IMHO the polemics is caused by the way the thread is worded with on the wrong side of the market. I believe its more apt to ask on which type of market/market conditions.

To a scalper trading on a scalping market, a 10-15 pips gain is a success so therefore he is on right side of the scalping market.
As a daytrader on a intraday market, a 10-15 pips gain is not even near to his stop loss.
For the mid/long termers, all that are only noises.
And to a money investor/hedgies/schemies/raiders, everything is slowly falling according to as planned and future perspectives.

Therefore the basis of being on the right/wrong side of the market is really contigent on what type of trader/etc one is which in turn determines the market he is trading in.

Hope it helps and I have to excuse myself for now......cheers and may the green pippies be with you always.......
  • #186
  • Aug 1, 2010 9:03pm Aug 1, 2010 9:03pm
All it boils to one simple reason-

The failed traders have not trained 'neurons and synapses' inside their brain.

Trading like any other profession is a synaptic strategy'.

Nature has given everyone a mini supercomputer- Brain. When you learn and memorise things, your brain undergoes changes to organise and reorganise itself.
  • #187
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:37am Aug 2, 2010 5:37am
Quoting 99vt66
With all due respect and humility, IMHO the polemics is caused by the way the thread is worded with on the wrong side of the market. I believe its more apt to ask on which type of market/market conditions....
I appreciate all the replies but it’s the wrong side of the market I’m really interested in understanding.
Most newbie traders would grasp the concept that there is a larger, long-term underlying trend and it’s wise to only be trading in the same direction of the trend.
But they don’t. Most of the time, most retail Forex traders manage to trade in the opposite direction of the large trend. I’m amazed by it, the GBPUSD rocked last week more and more retail traders went short? It’s amazing really. They must see the market is going up, but yet they manage to get it wrong, why? It's not surprising that they get more complicated things like exits and money management wrong, but getting the direction of the so trend wrong so much of the time. Tossing a coin would be better, and the question is why.
  • #188
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:54am Aug 2, 2010 5:54am
really they just dont bother to look they rush. everybody is in such a rush these days. if they slowed it down a bit they would be fine.

regards damien
i pull the trigger when others are fearful---me
  • #189
  • Edited 6:43am Aug 2, 2010 6:05am | Edited 6:43am
Funny you should say that because this is what I was thinking to myself this morning. The pound shooted up, above daily and weekly highs, and people are pushing to short it.
I read an excellent article about roulette, but can't find it right now. It said, when red comes up 10 times in a row, people are pushing to bet on black. After 20, they literally go crazy and put everything on black. And the dealer said, 25 in a row is not a big deal, happens often.
I don't know, I'm not into casinos...
There is a piece of advice I found on forexlive: "An object in motion tends to remain in motion"

Quoting Davidee
I appreciate all the replies but it’s the wrong side of the market I’m really interested in understanding.
Most newbie traders would grasp the concept that there is a larger, long-term underlying trend and it’s wise to only be trading in the same direction of the trend.
[size=3][font=Calibri]But they don’t....
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #190
  • Aug 2, 2010 7:32am Aug 2, 2010 7:32am
Quoting spekitox
And the dealer said, 25 in a row is not a big deal, happens often.
25 in a row happen once every 64 years, if he manages to throw the ball every minute, 24 hours a day, 365 days. The vast majority of dealers will never see it happen and even if a casino has enough roullette wheels, such an event is extremely rare.
I'd be the first to bet big if this event happens every year. That wheel is rigged.
  • #191
  • Aug 2, 2010 7:42am Aug 2, 2010 7:42am
Ah, the best thing about FF is the large number of people. You can be 100% sure, some of them will know the answer to your question, or immediately tell you if you make a mistake.
I looked a bit harder and it said 20 is not so uncommon. And the article was about Gambler's fallacy. Thanks Sauron anyways. Main thing is the same, market will upset a couple fellas this week as it always does. Oh, in this second, we're above 1.31 again.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #192
  • Aug 2, 2010 8:02am Aug 2, 2010 8:02am
Quoting Davidee
I appreciate all the replies but it’s the wrong side of the market I’m really interested in understanding.
Most newbie traders would grasp the concept that there is a larger, long-term underlying trend and it’s wise to only be trading in the same direction of the trend.
[size=3][font=Calibri]But they don’t. Most of the time, most retail Forex traders manage to trade in the opposite direction of the large trend. I’m amazed by it, the GBPUSD rocked last week more and more retail...
I'm new to trading but this is so true and because I'm new this used to happen to me often. I'm getting better at that.
  • #193
  • Aug 2, 2010 8:36am Aug 2, 2010 8:36am
Quoting Davidee
It’s amazing really. They must see the market is going up, but yet they manage to get it wrong, why?
Probably because they see a big move up and are reluctant to buy in case the trend is about to end and they're buying at the top. So in their wisdom they fade the move (sell) thinking that price must be pretty near to reversing, or at worst retrace. They compound the problem by not using a stop, or even worse averaging. The hole in the boat eventually reaches mammoth proportions.....and they sink.

Unfortunately for them....

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes

The thing is that kind of approach quite often works, as we all know price rarely moves in a straight line and trends have to end somewhere. It works.....until it doesn't! And when it doesn't the results are usually terminal!
  • #194
  • Aug 2, 2010 8:38am Aug 2, 2010 8:38am
From a hundred years old book /Wyckoff 1919/

The popular method of trading (which means the unsuccessful
way) is to say:
"I think the market's going bearish. ‘Smelters’, ‘Copper’ and ‘St.
Paul’ have had the biggest rise lately; they ought to have a good reaction;
sell a hundred short of each for me."
Trades based on what one "thinks" seldom pan out well.

Sweet, isn't it? Nothing changes in this world. Only the names.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #195
  • Aug 2, 2010 8:39am Aug 2, 2010 8:39am
Quoting spekitox
From a hundred years old book /Wyckoff 1919/

The popular method of trading (which means the unsuccessful
way) is to say:
"I think the market's going bearish. ‘Smelters’, ‘Copper’ and ‘St.
Paul’ have had the biggest rise lately; they ought to have a good reaction;
sell a hundred short of each for me."
Trades based on what one "thinks" seldom pan out well.

Sweet, isn't it? Nothing changes in this world. Only the names.
love it
Time hides Nothing
  • #196
  • Aug 2, 2010 8:52am Aug 2, 2010 8:52am
retail traders are on the wrong side of the market because they are not trading with this..... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=215781
  • #197
  • Aug 2, 2010 8:52am Aug 2, 2010 8:52am
Quoting kingfisher
All it boils to one simple reason-

The failed traders have not trained 'neurons and synapses' inside their brain.

Trading like any other profession is a synaptic strategy'.

Nature has given everyone a mini supercomputer- Brain. When you learn and memorise things, your brain undergoes changes to organise and reorganise itself.
I wish I understood what you just said!
  • #198
  • Aug 2, 2010 8:53am Aug 2, 2010 8:53am
Quoting domino
retail traders are on the wrong side of the market because they are not trading with this..... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=215781
Holy crap, it's the Grail!
  • #199
  • Aug 2, 2010 8:58am Aug 2, 2010 8:58am
Quoting pipmutt
Holy crap, it's the Grail!
lol I laugh so hard at that thread everytime I see it..
  • #200
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:17am Aug 2, 2010 11:17am
Quoting pipmutt
I wish I understood what you just said!


In layman's terms... Traders fail because they don't know how to trade. If anyone catches me using big words to explain something so simple please don't hesitate to call me out on it.
Living the adventure in my head.
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