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Why are most retail traders usually on the wrong side of the market?

  • #161
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:24pm Aug 1, 2010 2:24pm
Yep.....I guess Buffet trades everything. His claim to fame, is the equity markets....buying and selling companies like you and I buy and sell equities. Now that I think about it, I do recall him making some bad currency bets. But his enduring legacy is definitely in the area of investing. Investing and trading are two different animals. That's why he never got involved with the dot com explosion because he considered himself an investor not an impulsive trader.
  • #162
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:31pm Aug 1, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting Troikaone1
Being on the right side of the market means you are trading with the right strategy.
But it doesn't automatically follow that you'll make money, I'm sure there are some excellent analysts who frequently get direction right but still lose their shirt, just as there are some useless analysts who frequently get direction wrong but they make a killing. That's where 'trading' and being a 'trader' comes in, read Soros's quote again for clarity.


Quoting Troikaone1
The ultimate determinant as to whether or not you are trading with the right strategy is your P&L. The P&L does not lie.
Not just P&L, risk is the most important factor, any fool can make money....the hardest part is keeping it!
  • #163
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:34pm Aug 1, 2010 2:34pm
Remember, there is no such thing as making a Wrong Trade when you are trading with the Right Strategy. You can have a Right Strategy that has a high probability of success...but in the midst of your trade a leader gets assassinated and your high probability trade goes against you instantaneously. Taking an 80 pip loss in this instance is the Right thing to do....it doesn't mean that you are trading Wrong. You were basically in the Right Trade at the Wrong Dayum time!!!!
  • #164
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:36pm Aug 1, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting pipmutt
But it doesn't automatically follow that you'll make money, I'm sure there are some excellent analysts who frequently get direction right but still lose their shirt, just as there are some useless analysts who frequently get direction wrong but they make a killing. That's where 'trading' and being a 'trader' comes in, read Soros's quote again for clarity.
I have one thing to say and PLEASE remember this.....analysts are not traders.
  • #165
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:40pm Aug 1, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting pipmutt

Not just P&L, risk is the most important factor, any fool can make money....the hardest part is keeping it!
I agree....but if I can find a fool who makes 5 figures a month...I would seriously consider paying attention to him!!!!
  • #166
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:40pm Aug 1, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting Troikaone1
I have one thing to say and PLEASE remember this.....analysts are not traders.
Huh?

We're all analysing something. Technicals, fundamentals, PA blah blah blah, it's all analysis.
  • #167
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:42pm Aug 1, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting Troikaone1
I agree....but if I can find a fool who makes 5 figures a month...I would seriously consider paying attention to him!!!!
Not if he risked 6 figures to make it or he loses 6 figures the following month, that's the difference!
  • #168
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:44pm Aug 1, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting pipmutt
Huh?

We're all analysing something. Technicals, fundamentals, PA blah blah blah, it's all analysis.
Huh? I am referring to a PAID analyst. A person who analyzes the markets on behalf of a brokerage firm for instance. Sometimes, they will get on TV and provide an opinion.
  • #169
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:46pm Aug 1, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting pipmutt
Not if he risked 6 figures to make it or he loses 6 figures the following month, that's the difference!
I am talking about a fool who makes money every month, not one that loses money .
  • #170
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:51pm Aug 1, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting Troikaone1
analysts are not traders
Quoting Troikaone1
Huh? I am referring to a PAID analyst. A person who analyzes the markets on behalf of a brokerage firm for instance. Sometimes, they will get on TV and provide an opinion.
Well that's some analysts then, not all analysts! Being an analyst and being a trader aren't mutually exclusive, most traders do both, obviously.
  • #171
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:53pm Aug 1, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting Troikaone1
I am talking about a fool who makes money every month, not one that loses money .
To be perfectly honest I don't believe you know what you're talking about!

lol, it's got boring now, back to the thread topic.....
  • #172
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:53pm Aug 1, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting pipmutt
Well that's some analysts then, not all analysts! Being an analyst and being a trader aren't mutually exclusive, most traders do both, obviously.
He is right though, on trading floors there are traders and analysts, and I have never met an analyst yet that made it as a trader while the reverse does happen once the trader burns out.
  • #173
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:57pm Aug 1, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting cloggie
He is right though, on trading floors there are traders and analysts, and I have never met an analyst yet that made it as a trader while the reverse does happen once the trader burns out.
I thought we were talking about retail traders, I doubt many employ the services of their own personal analyst, it's very much a DIY job! Analyse the market, place the trade, manage risk, make the coffee.......reliable hired help is hard to find!
  • #174
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:05pm Aug 1, 2010 3:05pm
Quoting pipmutt
I thought we were talking about retail traders, I doubt many employ the services of their own personal analyst, it's very much a DIY job! Analyse the market, place the trade, manage risk, make the coffee.......reliable hired help is hard to find!
Ain't that the truth!
  • #175
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:07pm Aug 1, 2010 3:07pm
Quoting pipmutt
I thought we were talking about retail traders, I doubt many employ the services of their own personal analyst, it's very much a DIY job! Analyse the market, place the trade, manage risk, make the coffee.......reliable hired help is hard to find!
I was recently on a board where a so called respected analyst (out of respect, I won't mention his name) was telling everyone to sell AUDUSD. From experience, I knew this guy was dead wrong. Just like clockwork, he disappeared and was never heard from. Now did he lose any money? Of course not....all he does is offer an opinion. I will admit he has a way of sounding really, really smart and uses a lot of $20 words, but he was dead wrong. I've seen him do it before, and I can't believe anyone actually follows him.....I know I don't!!!!
  • #176
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:11pm Aug 1, 2010 3:11pm
Now to the basic question.....do retail traders analyze the markets? Of course they do. I analyze a lot of things.....it's just a verb. A FX Analyst is a title which I do not possess.
  • #177
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:15pm Aug 1, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting Troikaone1
I was recently on a board where a so called respected analyst (out of respect, I won't mention his name) was telling everyone to sell AUDUSD. From experience, I knew this guy was dead wrong. Just like clockwork, he disappeared and was never heard from. Now did he lose any money? Of course not....all he does is offer an opinion. I will admit he has a way of sounding really, really smart and uses a lot of $20 words, but he was dead wrong. I've seen him do it before, and I can't believe anyone actually follows him.....I know I don't!!!!
Conversely there are analysts and currency strategists interviewed on financial news channels who are consistently right, Hans Guenter Redeker to mention just one.

I don't see the relevance though, retail traders (the majority here) do their own analysis and their own trading, like I say they're not mutually exclusive as you stated.

Quoting Troikaone1
Now to the basic question.....do retail traders analyze the markets? Of course they do. I analyze a lot of things.....it's just a verb. A FX Analyst is a title which I do not possess.
Semantics and hair-splitting for the sake of it. Pointless, anal even. Hey, you possess part of the title at least!
  • #178
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:23pm Aug 1, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting pipmutt
Conversely there are analysts and currency strategists interviewed on financial news channels who are consistently right, Hans Guenter Redeker to mention just one.

I don't see the relevance though, retail traders (the majority here) do their own analysis and their own trading, like I say they're not mutually exclusive as you suggested.
Verbs and nouns tend to be mutually exclusive. In simple terms, everyone who analyzes the FX market is not an FX Analyst; however all FX analysts analyze the markets. I tend to form my own opinion when it comes to the markets, but it is easy for an analyst to take a macro view and say that the dollar will be weak for some time. They may be right from a big picture perspective, but every trader knows that the dollar can go 150 pips in the other direction very easily. The Analyst cannot handle that anomaly and can get folks in trouble who follow them blindly. A Trader is about the business of controlling risk on a real time basis.
  • #179
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:31pm Aug 1, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting pipmutt

Semantics and hair-splitting for the sake of it. Pointless, anal even. Hey, you possess part of the title at least!
Why the insult? I have not and will not insult you or anyone else in this forum.....it is disrespectful.
  • #180
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:39pm Aug 1, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting Troikaone1

everyone who analyzes the FX market is not an FX Analyst
Correct, they're an FX market Analyst.

Quoting Troikaone1
however all FX analysts analyze the markets.
Incorrect, all FX analysts analyse FX, not necessarily the FX market let alone the markets generally.


Seriously, are you really this bored? Well I'm not so I'll bid you g'day!

And 'anal', it's not an insult it's an observation, I really can't think of any other word to describe what you're being!

Sheeesh......lemme outta here!
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