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A simple strategy with no indicators

  • #181
  • Jul 30, 2010 3:59pm Jul 30, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting thehenryfam
Wow, what a dyslexic thread.

If I may make a few comments/suggestions...

ashraf999:

You have a simple, innovative method here. Nice job. I would suggest you post your trades as you see them with your suggested TP and SL and then also keep a running tally of your win/loss percentage and pip count for everyone to see. Then maybe people will quit asking the "how profitable", "which pairs," etc. ad nauseum.

Others:

1) This is a daily method that uses round number levels for TP and SL. If you want to experiment with other timeframes...
Thanks for your comments. I used to look for any indicator there is before I realized that price action is what I should have concentrated on. I have a journal called "Daily Charts" that posts actual live trades. However, it is not pertinent to one single strategy. The purpose of this thread is purely educational.
Make It Simple !
  • #182
  • Jul 30, 2010 4:01pm Jul 30, 2010 4:01pm
hi ashraf would u mind posting the rules again in the first post with more clear language there is some confusion .. please do it again thanks
  • #183
  • Jul 31, 2010 8:49am Jul 31, 2010 8:49am
Quoting hoichoi
hi ashraf would u mind posting the rules again in the first post with more clear language there is some confusion .. please do it again thanks
What part of the rules you did not understand so I may clarify it?
Make It Simple !
  • #184
  • Jul 31, 2010 9:14am Jul 31, 2010 9:14am
For going long:

1- Body of the latest Daily candle is greater than body of the previous 2 daily candles
2- Previous daily candle must be bearish
3- Close of latest candle is more than close of the previous candle

Number 3 what do u mean by more than close of the previous candle?
  • #185
  • Jul 31, 2010 10:47am Jul 31, 2010 10:47am
read for "more" higher

the price at the close of the last candle should be higher than the price of the one before that
  • #186
  • Jul 31, 2010 10:48am Jul 31, 2010 10:48am
Hi Ashraf999,

Many thanks for your endeavours here.

Do you find that trades run smoother during days were there is no release of economic data?

I trade a variety of methods, all based on PA, but find that the macro fundamentals tend to override technical analysis....at least in the short term. I do not believe news, data etc. is already discounted in the price, not at our humble retail level.

I would also tend to agree with qwertyfx, that this should not be viewed in isolation of support & resistance, trending behaviour etc. especially not for those new to this.

Keep up the great work and thank you for not being cryptic as a lot of thread creators appear to be on FF.

Kind regards
  • #187
  • Jul 31, 2010 11:21am Jul 31, 2010 11:21am
Quoting KingHigh
Here is a chart with all losses. Hope you see where I am not doing something right.

KingHigh

__________________
KingHigh,

Possible filters to avoid the losses if you are not going to take profit quickly is of course to trade with the trend and upon the breakout of the signal candle's range.

Kind regards
  • #188
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:10am Aug 1, 2010 2:10am
Quoting hoichoi
For going long:

1- Body of the latest Daily candle is greater than body of the previous 2 daily candles
2- Previous daily candle must be bearish
3- Close of latest candle is more than close of the previous candle

Number 3 what do u mean by more than close of the previous candle?
The pattern is composed of 3 candles. If we can number them 1, 2 & 3 (which is the signal candle), then to go long candle 3 must close higher than candle 2. And if we decided to go short, then candle 3 must close lower than candle 2
Make It Simple !
  • #189
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:24am Aug 1, 2010 3:24am
Quoting ChilliPipper
Hi Ashraf999,

Many thanks for your endeavours here.

Do you find that trades run smoother during days were there is no release of economic data?

I trade a variety of methods, all based on PA, but find that the macro fundamentals tend to override technical analysis....at least in the short term. I do not believe news, data etc. is already discounted in the price, not at our humble retail level.

I would also tend to agree with qwertyfx, that this should not be viewed in isolation of support & resistance, trending behaviour etc. especially...
Hi ChilliPipper,

I do not count economic news as a criteria for this strategy. And the reason why I prefer daily is there is usually less noise and more clarity with the daily than intra-daily charts . It is just a personal preference.

According to this strategy, you exit the trade within the same day of entering the trade. You do not keep it for the next trading day. So for me that is why the impact of support & resistance, trending behaviour etc is minimal.

Thanks again for your comments. I also find it hard to follow those "cryptic" threads. For me, they add more confusion than clarity to the reader.
Make It Simple !
  • #190
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:43am Aug 1, 2010 3:43am
Just an observation:

If candles 1 & 2 were spinning tops or pin bars (hammers) while candle 3 (the signal candle) was a long candle, you would have a better probability of success with this strategy. However this is not a rule.
Make It Simple !
  • #191
  • Aug 1, 2010 7:30am Aug 1, 2010 7:30am
Quoting ashraf999
Just an observation:

If candles 1 & 2 were spinning tops or pin bars (hammers) while candle 3 (the signal candle) was a long candle, you would have a better probability of success with this strategy. However this is not a rule.
yeah. i noticed that and about to post that. hammer, morning stars ...give better trade even for days in the direction of the main trend in my own opinion.
We Win Some, We Loose Some, But Let your Win Rates be More to be Successful
  • #192
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:43am Aug 2, 2010 5:43am
Quoting ashraf999
Just an observation:

If candles 1 & 2 were spinning tops or pin bars (hammers) while candle 3 (the signal candle) was a long candle, you would have a better probability of success with this strategy. However this is not a rule.
sorry, but what is a spinning top or pin bar ? do you have charts as examples ?


thanks
  • #193
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:45am Aug 2, 2010 5:45am
Quoting adeforex
For those who are confuse about this method, though it is too earlier, but because of the price trend today, i think eurusd, audusd may have a valid setting according to alpari uk if it ends this way today. i will wait until close of todays candle to determine. the trend may continue tomorrow-
what were your results for these two trades ?
  • #194
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:52am Aug 2, 2010 5:52am
i think i have mentioned this before. but can we please come up with a successful TP/SL combination that works best.

i usually have my stop loss set at 100 pips. with quick TPs of 30 pips. the problem with this is that although i might have 3-4 wins in a row, the one loss (reaching stop loss of 100 pips) wipes out the gains made.

so does anyone have any suggestions of how to tweak this system especially with regards to the tp/sl combination ?
  • #195
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:54am Aug 2, 2010 5:54am
Quoting ashraf999
Hi ChilliPipper,

I do not count economic news as a criteria for this strategy. And the reason why I prefer daily is there is usually less noise and more clarity with the daily than intra-daily charts . It is just a personal preference.

According to this strategy, you exit the trade within the same day of entering the trade. You do not keep it for the next trading day. So for me that is why the impact of support & resistance, trending behaviour etc is minimal.

Thanks again for your comments. I also find it hard to follow those "cryptic" threads....
have you compiled a results table yet and do you have past results you can post ? also, out of all the systems you are using, which one would you say is your best system in terms of profitability ?


regards
  • #196
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:59am Aug 2, 2010 5:59am
Quoting whatfx
have you compiled a results table yet and do you have past results you can post ? also, out of all the systems you are using, which one would you say is your best system in terms of profitability ?


regards
No I have not compiled a result table. I would not call this system my favorite but it is one of the systems I am actively using
Make It Simple !
  • #197
  • Aug 2, 2010 7:12am Aug 2, 2010 7:12am
which one is your favourite system ashraf
  • #198
  • Aug 2, 2010 7:58am Aug 2, 2010 7:58am
Hi Ashraf & All, I trade a similar style to this on intra-day. I think your entry's are good in that you are either taking a reversals or break outs based on price action also you do this at times when the market is undecided or consolidating (hence inside bars)

However I think you will greatly improve your chances of success if you take into account where you are in the current market. E.g where are you in the current swing/Trend? where are you in the bigger price channel? and where is the recent S&R.

To identify the swings and trend I use fractals. If a up fractal is broken my bias is bullish and vice versa.

To identify the channel you can use the equidistant of the trend line fractals or the zigzag indicator.

Have a look at the attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily fractal.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #199
  • Aug 3, 2010 4:27am Aug 3, 2010 4:27am
Quoting ashraf999
No I have not compiled a result table. I would not call this system my favorite but it is one of the systems I am actively using
hi ashraf

which one is your favourite system ? also, what are pinbars and hammers ?

so far, what has been the success ratio using this system ?

yesterday i had two signals from the majors: GBP/EUR - long, and EUR/USD - long. do you agree ?


regards
  • #200
  • Aug 3, 2010 6:26pm Aug 3, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting whatfx
what were your results for these two trades ?
first of all, go to post 168, download the sds indicator, it will be helpful, i gained about 128 pips on eurusd long,hit tp on 2nd, aug. for kiwi, i did not trade it because by the time the candle closed, the arrow from the indicator on post 168 has dessapeared. now this is how i analyse my trade 1. i go to weekly chat, draw reasonable, major SR using fibonacci retracment, to know whats happening and what is the major trend... 2. eurusd is very strong buy at fibo 38.2 now. i now come back to daily chat. i dont trade counter trend. i will be looking for buy arrow signal using the indicator above or analzing it manually as explained by ashraff. 3. stop loss and tp, i consider minor support and resistance area for my sl initially then later adjust to resonable points when in profit. i use 70-80% of ATR 14 for my tp. simple. it will be around 100 pips daily if on my favor. i also put in to consideration, formation of HAMMER AND STARS before i pull the trigger. 4. as at 4th,aug 00.00am. SIGNAL SELL ON USDJPY. WEEKLY.TREND= SELL ARROW ON DAILY=SELL. I DEMO IT FOR 70 PIPS SELL COS IT IS VERY CLOSE TO FIBO 0.00 ON WEEKLY. I WILL SEE HOW IT GOES BEFORE NEXT CANDLE
We Win Some, We Loose Some, But Let your Win Rates be More to be Successful
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