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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #17,781
  • Edited 6:07pm Jul 31, 2010 4:15pm | Edited 6:07pm
Quoting auxesis
Gro,

Like most things, too much is never good. The problem I have (personal scorpion) with Gann and other types of analysis, is trying to be "too myopic" or "perfect" in the chart's interpretation....
aux,
The moment you draw the gann line on the chart(same for all indicators that you may like to use), your mindset is already bias. If you have stubborn personality it had already become rigid. Some percentages of the time you will be correct. But those that you are not, you will maime your book for being not nimble to change.

The only exception is unless you can devise an indicator that is close to 100% accurate. If such was the case then why MM, just sel the house and punt.

One recent example, i went a searching for the top on thursday, she didn't come. But manage rescue book. On friday i rode south from tokyo and took profits. waited spotted the change, and went north, took profits as well into ny lunch, before closing book for the month. If I had been rigid, I guess you know the outcome?


regards
  • #17,782
  • Jul 31, 2010 4:55pm Jul 31, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting fti
aux,


The only exception is unless you can devise an indicator that is close to 100% accurate. If such was the case then why MM, just sel the house and punt.

regards
yep.
Leave the special effects for the movie industry, and just listen more really.
Myself having spent a few years just focusing on my own weaknesses, I can say this will bring out the level of nimbleness needed, lessen the ego to a minimum and tier your aggression to where your book is and where it is going.

Just my 2 and my regards for the weekend,

Inserted Video
  • #17,783
  • Jul 31, 2010 6:00pm Jul 31, 2010 6:00pm
Appreciate some feed back.
What is this?
Is it a legit ops.

http://www.currensee.com/forex-trading-community

I ask because, if this is legit stuff.
I am thinking to developing team of market angels..
But i have much doubts.
Seems like IB to me.
Need Info.

regards
  • #17,784
  • Jul 31, 2010 6:14pm Jul 31, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting fti
Appreciate some feed back.
What is this?
Is it a legit ops.

http://www.currensee.com/forex-trading-community

I ask because, if this is legit stuff.
I am thinking to developing team of market angels..
But i have much doubts.
Seems like IB to me.
Need Info.

regards
Hi fti,

if ever you will start creating a team of market angels i hope you will include me to your list

regards,
dongsky
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #17,785
  • Jul 31, 2010 6:22pm Jul 31, 2010 6:22pm
Quoting dongsky
Hi fti,

if ever you will start creating a team of market angels i hope you will include me to your list

regards,
dongsky
Hi dongsky,
Nothing yet.
Was sent this email.
Now I am checking on the firm as I had not heard of them before.
Seems like operating under Venture capital.
Am wondering if they are incubator.

Still need Info on this.
As I see an opportuniy to have life hand holding sesssions.
Much questions, need answers.

regards
  • #17,786
  • Jul 31, 2010 6:36pm Jul 31, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting fti
Hi dongsky,
Nothing yet.
Was sent this email.
Now I am checking on the firm as I had not heard of them before.
Seems like operating under Venture capital.
Am wondering if they are incubator.

Still need Info on this.
As I see an opportuniy to have life hand holding sesssions.
Much questions, need answers.

regards
Hi fti,

i will be looking forward into this project of yours chief. i just registered to them (currensee.com) and still waiting for their email confirmation... want to know and see what it's like

whatever development happening in your new project sir, please keep me posted - if you can send me private message that i can get in touch with you directly since your "pm" is not activated.

regards,
dongsky
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #17,787
  • Jul 31, 2010 6:51pm Jul 31, 2010 6:51pm
Quoting fti
Appreciate some feed back.
What is this?
Is it a legit ops.

http://www.currensee.com/forex-trading-community

I ask because, if this is legit stuff.
I am thinking to developing team of market angels..
But i have much doubts.
Seems like IB to me.
Need Info.

regards

It is a kind of social networking. You open some account with brokers listed, and your trades and account are visible to others.
Now, you always have a "control management" who the others are. You can invite in your "circle" or you can Not. Only those Knights invited on your round table can share the account statistics, ex. as a group or personal statistic.

Many brokers are already listed, and the company [Currensee] get paid of the spread or commission of the brokers, something like IB, so no additional expenses.

Im already having an account, but not using it much...

Not a bad idea if you can manage "your Inner circle"

P
  • #17,788
  • Jul 31, 2010 7:41pm Jul 31, 2010 7:41pm
Quoting fti
aux,
The moment you draw the gann line on the chart(same for all indicators that you may like to use), your mindset is already bias. If you have stubborn personality it had already become rigid. Some percentages of the time you will be correct. But those that you are not, you will maime your book for being not nimble to change.

The only exception is unless you can devise an indicator that is close to 100% accurate. If such was the case then why MM, just sel the house and punt.

One recent example, i went a searching for the top on thursday,...
Fti,

Draw a line, read highs/lows, PA, whatever the circumstance it doesn't matter..... by simply entering north or south you have determined a bias. Conviction is measured by size.

Statistically there are times, PA, that are exploitable, but is anything in the markets 100%???? Even "feeling" the market can lead you astray at times, hence the need for book rescue.

If any tool is used properly, how can it be viewed as bad?

However the best tool if used improperly will chop off or crush your fingers at best, if not your head.

The key lies in the individual, imho.

regards,
  • #17,789
  • Jul 31, 2010 11:40pm Jul 31, 2010 11:40pm
SUnday morning baby 0039 to be exact and I'm the only one reading yeah! 870 more pages to go weeeeeeeeee!!!...
  • #17,790
  • Edited 1:53am Aug 1, 2010 1:01am | Edited 1:53am
Quoting Piters
It is a kind of social networking. You open some account with brokers listed, and your trades and account are visible to others.
Now, you always have a "control management" who the others are. You can invite in your "circle" or you can Not. Only those Knights invited on your round table can share the account statistics, ex. as a group or personal statistic....
Hi Piters,

That was what i as thinking. Same as having private club, only now having professionals to manage the access and security details. To do that I must be able trust them 100%.

Problem is there is little information about the company. Only have some listing of some persons who runs the company. Am not impressed. Moreover the company is comprised of marketing people not so many traders.

Her paid up cap seems mostly venture capital, made me suspect is some incubation IT project, than a robust and solid financial institution mode of operating, with solid intergity, that I can trust fully. Need that peace of mind as they will be able see, my blotter and P&L ,network and full profile with biodata, if I joined.

A couple of questions, since you already with them.
1. Since they are paid like IBs, by brokers, do you find "any peculiarities" with the spreads that are quoted by broker compared market?

2. Do they intervene in your interest, when issues arises between you and the broker, if it happens?
I realised to answer this you need have had issues and events. If you cannot know then is ok not to say.

Thanks for info help.

regards
  • #17,791
  • Edited 1:33am Aug 1, 2010 1:15am | Edited 1:33am
Quoting auxesis
Fti,

Draw a line, read highs/lows, PA, whatever the circumstance it doesn't matter..... by simply entering north or south you have determined a bias. Conviction is measured by size.
When you ATTEMPT scout position? How can that be bias? You are attempting impulse timing. Unless your rescue is rigid to the direction the scout was in , Then you had developed bias. In that case, then your scout is not in as scout, only as pointman. Then your nimbloeness is lost.


Quoting auxesis
Fti,

Statistically there are times, PA, that are exploitable, but is anything in the markets 100%???? Even "feeling" the market can lead you astray at times, hence the need for book rescue.
How can feel lead you astray? under worst case secenario, she can whip you around in her volitility range and that itself tells you what sort of terrain you are in.

Quoting auxesis
Fti,

If any tool is used properly, how can it be viewed as bad?

However the best tool if used improperly will chop off or crush your fingers at best, if not your head.

The key lies in the individual, imho.

regards,
That can happen when the wrong man uses the right tools,then the right tools will be used wrongly. Tools are inert, user can be very rigid or very versatile, depends on mindset.

Could it be you are begining to deviate of the basics?
Or maybe misinterpreting feel as a tool.
Going back to your old ways and mindset?
Watch your P&L chart, it will be very telling.

regards
  • #17,792
  • Aug 1, 2010 1:40am Aug 1, 2010 1:40am
Dear Sir Fti

I would like to give a huge appreciation your teaching & lessons. Although i come here trying to understand how the PRO does but i take back MORE in terms of the life lessons & values that u impart from your parables & stories i.e. Sandpiper, Monk etc

I would also like to thank Maheswara/Dongsky for their compliment of the words documents which i printed out and read it everyday on my commute to work and in conjuction with together with the 1st 200 pages.

Since our nation's Bday is shortly upon us (i'm Singapore & proud to be one) i would like to take this opportunity to wish U & all fellow SG traders a Happy National Day. Majullah Singapura!

Dance Well
Sylar
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #17,793
  • Aug 1, 2010 1:43am Aug 1, 2010 1:43am
Hi Fti,

From What I see:

1. they are providing only a social networking platform - facility, but they are not IB.
2. You can choose any of the brokers listed, open an account and start trading, [and the list is not small, MBT, FXDD and others are there..]
3. The way they are paid is same as IB, so they need authorization from you, so they can access your account but only for statistical data [read only], but in any case, they can see your P/L and all your trades too..
4. they have no access or control over the data feed, or price action, or trading - as they are not an IB, they only get paid from the spread/commission from your broker.

Now, I have some questions too:

1. as every business involved in, the question is, where the personal data goes, and who else have an access.
2. can they follow the trades as long the P/L goes over some average level.. I mean copy and follow the leader. .- they probably do.. but form the other side, that is exactly what every single broker is doing when they have some successful client.. Just copy/paste..
3. from what I see they have managed over 1.5 mil trades for about an year.. so, probably lots of traders, signal providers an rest of the trading gurus.. as well as a good base for lots of marketing products, - Robots, signals ect..

My conclusion:

1. Yes it is possible to have some spare, small account opened with MBT [ecn] or some other Broker.
2. Yes for privacy protection, it is possible to run under other name, or company P/L, LLC, ect..
3. Yes it is possible to invite into your inner circle and communicate only with few friends, colleague, team, market angels.. ect....

just my 2 pips..
  • #17,794
  • Edited 2:45am Aug 1, 2010 2:10am | Edited 2:45am
Quoting Piters
Hi Fti,

From What I see:

1. they are providing only a social networking platform - facility, but they are not IB.
2. You can choose any of the brokers listed, open an account and start trading, [and the list is not small, MBT, FXDD and others are there..]
3. The way they are paid is same as IB, so they need authorization from you, so they can access your account but only for statistical data [read only], but in any case,...
Thank you Piters for your info.

my perspective to your questions.

1. Yes personal bio data and information is grossly abused. It depends on the integerity of the people who have the infomation access. Although much is done in financial institutions to china wall such critical info, there is still much abuse.
One example i like to tell you is what i seen in credit card users info. Is grossly abused. And FI's had been grappling with this issue for eternity. What I seen is monthly abuse of card fraud in millions monthly, and this is sucked up by the insurers to the cards.

2. yes , exactly. When masses of traders clamour for a single price it had behavioural repercussions to the price volitility. I believe that is why i experience slippage now adays . I suspect leaks at my pricipal. But I am not getting paranoia over it, unless the situation deterioates.

3. Statistical volume doen not say much about the company's intergrity and policies of day to day ops. It is imperitive to be dealing only with people who are 100 % integrity, and even then you need discount 60%

Thanks again Piters for your inputs.
I explore deeper, see if i can really find a nice home to train some angel without exposing all following to personalities.

regards

PS: I am still thinking.
But one thingy i didn't like was that grorp leader gets paid for volume , instead of performance.

The other issue for me is how not to exclude newbie who may just come on to learn. This if started becomes closed room.
  • #17,795
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:41am Aug 1, 2010 2:41am
Quoting fti
Appreciate some feed back.
What is this?
Is it a legit ops.

http://www.currensee.com/forex-trading-community

I ask because, if this is legit stuff.
I am thinking to developing team of market angels..
But i have much doubts.
Seems like IB to me.
Need Info.

regards
I assume you read this?

http://techcrunch.com/2010/02/23/currensee-funding/

Competition seems to be stocktwits (however, that is stock based and not currency)

They are members of the National Futures Association (NFA) so it seems you have somewhere to complain if necessary.

http://www.nfa.futures.org/nfamanual...NFAManual.aspx
http://www.nfa.futures.org/NFA-compl...uirements.HTML
  • #17,796
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:47am Aug 1, 2010 2:47am
Quoting Zoran
I assume you read this?

http://techcrunch.com/2010/02/23/currensee-funding/

Competition seems to be stocktwits (however, that is stock based and not currency)

They are members of the National Futures Association (NFA) so it seems you have somewhere to complain if necessary.

http://www.nfa.futures.org/nfamanual...NFAManual.aspx
http://www.nfa.futures.org/NFA-compl...uirements.HTML
NFA regulating forex?
Then forex will need become secondary markets, ie derivatives.

regards
  • #17,797
  • Edited 3:27am Aug 1, 2010 3:14am | Edited 3:27am
Quoting fti
NFA regulating forex?
Then forex will need become secondary markets, ie derivatives.

regards
It did sound a bit odd - to be a member of a futures group. Not sure if their rules are helpful.

I've joined up to have a look. The leaderboard has the top trader returning 1700%

Hmm, top annual return is 4318924900.1% Something doesn't seem right?

Reward scheme seems IB based.
  • #17,798
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:53am Aug 1, 2010 3:53am
Quoting Zoran
It did sound a bit odd - to be a member of a futures group. Not sure if their rules are helpful.

I've joined up to have a look. The leaderboard has the top trader returning 1700%

Hmm, top annual return is 4318924900.1% Something doesn't seem right?

Reward scheme seems IB based.

Holy cow batman!! I'm having what he's having!!! , but seriously... How do I join the group? I hope hardwork and determination counts because every session I look @ the charts and @ the same time run the whole laboratory by myself.

PS... Not a methlab
  • #17,799
  • Aug 1, 2010 4:17am Aug 1, 2010 4:17am
Quoting fti
aux,
The moment you draw the gann line on the chart(same for all indicators that you may like to use), your mindset is already bias. If you have stubborn personality it had already become rigid. Some percentages of the time you will be correct. But those that you are not, you will maime your book for being not nimble to change.

The only exception is unless you can devise an indicator that is close to 100% accurate. If such was the case then why MM, just sel the house and punt.

One recent example, i went a searching for the top on thursday, she...
Hi FTI

I'll try my view.
I have plotted on a graph line of historical levels (S/R,RR etc.) As for the reasons that I can not see these historic levels already at 5 min. chart.These lines or patterns if you want to represent only what MM has to be me.
Market sense is derived from the brain feeling harmonious and inharmonious.So I feel like music.As I wrote ... we can wait for a long distance from the Sun, planet larger than the Jupiter???
Bass tone is distant from the source, high tone is close to the source, Bass longer interval etc.Human brain this can feel.
It took me a long time to understand, "rhythm has a compensatory effect".
... and kill the market with "wide sword"

Regards
  • #17,800
  • Aug 1, 2010 4:18am Aug 1, 2010 4:18am
Quoting Zoran
It did sound a bit odd - to be a member of a futures group. Not sure if their rules are helpful.

I've joined up to have a look. The leaderboard has the top trader returning 1700%

Hmm, top annual return is 4318924900.1% Something doesn't seem right?

Reward scheme seems IB based.
seems focus is on marketing only.
not even pay attention to details.
1st sign of red flag.

thanks for info.

regards
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